The rolling New Orleans Saints will look to win their second game in three weeks against division rivals the Atlanta Falcons as QB Taysom Hill will attempt to go 3-0 SU (and ATS) as a starter.
The Falcons dismantled the Raiders last week 43-6, but NFL betting odds have them as three-point home dogs against a Saints defense that last gave up a touchdown on November 15—a stretch of 11 straight quarters. That number is trending off the three to +3.5 and the total has fallen to 46 after opening at 47.5.
Here are our NFL free picks and predictions for Saints vs. Falcons on December 6 (1:00 p.m. ET).
New Orleans Saints at Atlanta Falcons Betting Preview
Weather
This game will be played indoors at the Mercedes-Benz Stadium. Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions for other Week 13 games with our NFL weather info.
Key Injuries
Saints: Drew Brees QB (Out), Janoris Jenkins CB (Out), Terron Armstead T (Out), Marquez Callaway WR (Out), Marcus Davenport DE (Out), Deonte Harris WR (Out).
Falcons: Olamide Zaccheaus WR (Out), James Carpenter LG (Out).
Find our latest NFL injury reports.
Betting Trend to Know
The Saints are a perfect 4-0 ATS and 0-4 O/U in their last four games. Find more NFL betting trends for Saints vs. Falcons.
Against the Spread (ATS) Pick
The Saints have won (and covered) two straight games while only passing for 273 total yards. “Quarterback” Taysom Hill is coming off a measly 78-yard passing performance but the starter has four rushing TDs and already posted a 24-9 win against these same Falcons as 3.5-point favorites just two weeks ago.
Under Hill, the Saints have become a run-first team—but it is the defense that the Falcons should be worried about.
Since their OT win against the Bears on Nov 1, the Saints’ defense has allowed just one TD across the last 16 quarters. Teams are gaining only 3.8 yards per play and even the Buccaneers managed just 4.2 yards per play against the league’s No. 2 DVOA defense, per Football Outsiders.
In its one-sided 37-point win last week, Atlanta gained just 4.2 yards per play and amassed 304 total yards. The Saints have covered five of the last six meetings with their only ATS loss coming as a 14-point favorite. We’re backing the D here at -3 before it moves to -3.5.
PREDICTION: New Orleans -3 (-105)
Over/Under Pick
Hill has two starts at QB and has seen the Under hit in both. The Saints defense has already proven that they can shut down this one-dimensional Atlanta offense, holding the Falcons to 2-for-14 on third downs and 248 yards of offense in Week 11.
Atlanta is in the Bottom 3 in yards per rush attempt this year and could be missing the services of RB Todd Gurley this week as he sat out in Week 12 with a knee injury.
The Falcons could also be without WR Julio Jones, who also missed last week. New Orleans shut both of those guys down in Week 11 and if neither suits up this week, touchdowns could be hard to come by for the Birds.
If for some unforeseen reason Saints QB Jameis Winston draws the start, we would definitely bang the Over (the total would likely reach 50), but with how well the Saints have played Matt Ryan over the years and Hill’s handicap on the offense, we have to take the Under.
PREDICTION: Under 46 (-110)
Race to Points Prop Pick
The Falcons will need some special teams or defense help to reach 30 points against a Saints team that hasn’t given up that many points in over two months. New Orleans isn’t even giving up TDs lately and possibly missing Jones and Gurley is not a good recipe for offensive success for Atlanta.
Trusting Hill to navigate this offense for 30 points is also a tough task. The New Orleans QB’s longest pass last week went for 24 yards as the team only threw the ball 16 times. It can’t be all roses being a New Orleans receiver these days.
Fading both teams to hit 30 points is a unique way to watch this game and should have bettors holding a live ticket late into the contest.
PREDICTION: Race to 30 points – neither team (-135)
Saints vs Falcons Betting Card
- New Orleans -3 (-105)
- Under 46 (-110)
- Race to 30 points – neither team (-135)
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