The New Orleans Saints try to stop the bleeding of a five-game losing skid when they head to East Rutherford to face the New York Jets in Week 14.
New Orleans, which hasn’t won since Halloween, is coming off a mini bye after a loss to Dallas at home last Thursday. The Saints aren’t certain of their quarterback situation for Week 14, either, with Taysom Hill injuring his finger in his first start last week, which could have Trevor Siemian back under center Sunday.
Check out our free NFL betting picks and predictions for Saints at Jets on December 12.
Saints vs Jets odds
Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
New Orleans opened as big as a 6-point favorite on the road but that spread has since slimmed as low as -4.5 at some shops. The total hit the board at 43.5 points and is down to 42.5 with early play on the Under.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until kickoff and be sure to check out the full NFL odds before placing your bets.
Saints vs Jets predictions
- Prediction: Saints -4.5 (-110)
- Prediction: Under 43 (-110)
- Best bet: Lil'Jordan Humphrey anytime touchdown (+260)
Predictions made on 12/08/2021 at 12:20 p.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Saints vs Jets game info
• Location: MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, NJ
• Date: Sunday, December 12, 2021
• Time: 1:00 p.m. ET
• TV: CBS
Saints at Jets betting preview
Weather
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Key injuries
Saints: Ian Book QB (Out), Will Clapp C (Out), Ken Crawley CB (Out), Kaden Elliss LB (Out), Pete Werner LB (Out), Lil'Jordan Humphrey WR (Out), Ryan Ramcyzyk T (Out).
Jets: Corey Davis WR (Out), Ronald Blair DE (Out), Michael Carter CB (Out), Tevin Coleman RB (Out), Isaiah Dunn CB (Out), Jonathan Marshall DT (Out), Trevon Wesco TE (Out), Isaiah Williams OG (Out), Tevin Coleman RB (Out), Trevon Wesco TE (Out).
Find our latest NFL injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Jets are 8-20 against the spread in their last 28 games versus a team with a losing record. Find more NFL betting trends for Saints vs. Jets.
Saints vs Jets picks and predictions
Our predictions are compiled from the analysis of the spread and total and are indications of where we are leaning for this game.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this game, which we would actually put some of our bankroll behind.
Spread analysis
The Saints offense is a mystery, not just with the questions at quarterback but with the status of RB Alvin Kamara. The dynamic dual-threat weapon hasn’t played since Week 9 due to a knee injury, but it does sound like Kamara could be back in the lineup Sunday, per Saints beat reporter Jeff Duncan.
That’s a massive boost to whichever QB gets the call in Week 14. Kamara is a threat on the ground and through the air, but more importantly, is the ultimate pressure release when pass rushes attack – which they have been since Kamara went down.
Should Hill fight through the finger discomfort, much like he did when he suffered the injury last Thursday, New Orleans has a slick run-option wrinkle to this playbook with the mobile QB, which could give the Jets fits.
New York ranks 30th in Run Defense DVOA and sits 28th in EPA allowed per rush (-0.022) on the year. The Jets got rolled by Philadelphia last Sunday, with the Eagles picking up 185 yards on 41 carries and they were playing without dual-threat QB Jalen Hurts, who was more than adequately replaced by QB Gardner Minshew.
New Orleans' attack won’t pose much of a downfield threat and will straight-up challenge the Jets defense to slow them up on the ground. It did well against the Dallas defense in Week 13 before turnovers forced Sean Payton to pass, outgaining the Cowboys 405-377 for the game and picking up 5.9 yards per play.
With this spread shrinking as low as NOLA -4.5, you worry less about this Saints offense stirring up enough points to cover, especially with how bad the Jets defense can be.
Prediction: Saints -4.5 (-110)
Over/Under analysis
The Saints offense is going to be even more run-heavy with WR Deonte Harris suspended for three games. Harris is the team’s leading receiver in a passing game that sits 25th in yards per outing. The Jets are also without their top downfield weapon, losing WR Corey Davis to a season-ending groin injury.
The brightest star in this showdown between struggling teams is the New Orleans defense, which rates out as the No. 5 defense in DVOA at Football Outsiders. The Saints remain the standard for run stop units and showed great pass pressure in the loss to Dallas last week, with one sack and seven QB hits against the Cowboys' vaunted offensive line. Granted, NOLA runs the risk of not having stalwart Cameron Jordan at defensive end due to a positive COVID test earlier in the week.
New York’s pass protection isn’t great, allowing 33 total sacks and owning an adjusted sack rate ranked 23rd in the NFL (7.1%). Newly acquired guard Laurent Duvernay-Tardif is questionable with an ankle injury and New York could be extremely thin at tight end, with the three top TEs all listed as question marks for Sunday.
This all adds up to a very stale offensive output in Week 14. The total has already ticked down to 43 points but that could still leave plenty of headroom to back the Under. We also have another non-conference matchup, which have produced Unders at a 66% rate this season.
Prediction: Under 43 (-110)
Best bet
Say what you want about his name: Lil'Jordan Humphrey has balled out in recent weeks. And now with Harris suspended and Michael Thomas a distant memory, Lil’Jordan is the top target for this Saints passing game.
That might not be saying much, since NOLA sits 27th in EPA per dropback since Week 10 (-0.149) but that’s not due to Humphrey’s efforts. He’s been targeted eight times for six receptions and 100 total yards in the past three games while also finding the end zone twice.
He had instant chemistry with Hill last Thursday night and is a live threat to hit paydirt again in Week 14. Expect New Orleans to use the short game to set up a few looks over the top to Humphrey when the Jets go with man-to-man coverage.
Pick: Lil'Jordan Humphrey anytime touchdown (+260)
