The Green Bay Packers continue their postseason push, playing host the New Orleans Saints on Monday Night Football in Week 16.
Green Bay is back home after a huge win at Seattle in Week 15, and with New Orleans dealing with a plethora of injuries, our Saints vs. Packers expect Green Bay to keep rolling in Week 16. Read more in my NFL picks below.
Saints vs Packers predictions
Early spread lean
Packers -13.5 (-110 at FanDuel)
My analysis
The Green Bay Packers not only have motivation on their side this Monday but a serious home-field advantage. Lambeau Field is always a tough place to play, but the Wisconsin winter will put the freeze on the New Orleans Saints, with game-time temperatures expected to feel like 3 degrees.
New Orleans could be playing without QB Derek Carr and RB Alvin Kamara, with both standouts listed as questionable but getting an extra day to heal up. Carr missed last week due to a concussion, while Kamara injured his groin in Week 15.
That could leave NOLA with backups Spencer Rattler and Jake Haener to face a Green Bay defense ranked No. 7 in EPA allowed per play and fourth in total takeaways. This Saints offense couldn’t move the chains against Washington's soft stop unit in Week 15, leaving the defense to log more than 40 minutes of playing time.
Obviously, the status of the Saints' offensive stars will impact these NFL odds, but as it stands, I'd lean toward the Cheeseheads as big chalk on Monday Night Football.
Early Over/Under lean
Under 42.5 (-110 at FanDuel)
My analysis
This number opened at 42.5 points and if New Orleans is left with a backup QB and no Kamara, it’s tough to grasp just how they advance the ball against this Packers defense.
Green Bay’s offense has been anchored in the rushing attack in the second half of the season and absolutely rolled over Seattle on Sunday, marching for 140 rushing yards on 34 carries.
The Saints enter Week 16 ranked 29th in EPA allowed per handoff and 30th in opponent success rate per carry, which could make for a long game for the NOLA defense. The Packers could get up big and then grind out the clock in the second half with the run.
New Orleans has stayed below the total in three straight games, managing a collective 47 points in those outings. The Saints are 26th in success rate since Week 13 and 21st in average first downs in that span.
Mix in the cold and potential wind gusts of 20+ mph, and I’ll lean to the Under on the frozen tundra.
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Saints vs Packers live odds
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