There’s no secret to the Philadelphia Eagles’ game plan at this stage. They’re going to ride Saquon Barkley as far as he can take them, and that could be all the way to Super Bowl 59.
Heading into Sunday’s NFC Championship Game against the Washington Commanders, the spotlight on Barkley has never been brighter. He thumped his way through the Los Angeles Rams in the Divisional Round, and his player prop totals have predictably sky-rocketed as a result.
However, the Commanders are seeing this Eagles team for a third time since mid-November, and as ugly as those prior meetings were for Washington’s run defense, I’m pouring a little water on the hype. Read more I explore the Saquon Barkley odds in my NFL picks for today's NFC title game.
Saquon Barkley player prop picks
- Best bet
Under 126.5 rushing yards
(-110 at Caesars) - SGP pick
Under 126.5 rushing yards
Over 2.5 receptions
A.J. Brown Over 64.5 receiving yards
(+625 at Caesars)
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
Saquon Barkley prop pick
My best bet
Under 126.5 rushing yards (-110 at Caesars)
My analysis
‘It’s 11-man football to stop this man.’
No one needs to remind the Washington Commanders about how Saquon Barkley can punish the slightest defensive lapse, and I’m taking defensive coordinator Joe Whitt Jr. at his word; Washington is going to sell out to slow down Barkley on Sunday.
The Commanders have seen the carnage up close, allowing a combined 296 rushing yards to Barkley in two matchups with the Philadelphia Eagles this season. However, there’s at least familiarity with the task at hand, and I’m banking on Whitt Jr. and defensive-minded head coach Dan Quinn learning from what worked and didn’t work against the Philly ground game.
After seeing Jayden Daniels produce one of the all-time poised rookie playoff performances against Detroit last weekend, I’m also buying into the Commanders’ ability to sustain drives and give their defense a breather. If they can get off to a good start and grab the lead, it could even nudge the Eagles away from their run-heavy script.
Barkley’s huge rushing totals — both in the playoffs and against Washington — have been punctuated by long breakaway touchdowns, and this line seems to bake in at least one monster play.
Make no mistake, Barkley is going to move the chains and cash in on the yards before contact that the Eagles’ offensive line provides, but the Commanders will surely dare Jalen Hurts to beat them with his arm. That means Barkley won’t see many light boxes on Sunday, and I’m zagging towards the Under.
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Saquon Barkley same-game parlay
Saquon Barkley Under 126.5 rushing yards
Saquon Barkley Over 2.5 receptions
A.J. Brown Over 64.5 receiving yards
One of the Philadelphia counters to a loaded Washington box could be to slip in some disguised pass plays, including opportunities for Barkley to leak out of the backfield and give Hurts a check-down option. Barkley was a bigger part of the Eagles’ passing game against the Rams, finishing with four catches for 27 yards, and I like his chances of getting to at least three receptions on Sunday.
His receiving volume has been surprisingly low this year — just 33 catches for 278 yards during the regular season, and six grabs across five contests prior to the Divisional Round — but an NFC Championship Game is the perfect stage to dial up plays that Nick Sirianni may have been keeping under wraps.
Likewise, this feels like the moment for A.J. Brown to get back on track after making more headlines on the sideline than on the field in these playoffs.
Though Hurts’ knee issue makes it unlikely that the hosts will be slinging passes from the start, Brown is going to see plenty of one-on-one coverage here. As the Commanders set their sights on Barkley, look for Brown to finally show up in these playoffs with some clutch catches.
A line of 64.5 seems like an overreaction to two quiet games, and the All-Pro receiver had eight catches for 97 yards and a touchdown against Washington in Week 16.
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