Steelers vs Bengals Week 1 Picks and Predictions: Pittsburgh Keeps it Close

The Pittsburgh Steelers will start their first season without Ben Roethlisberger for the first time since 2003 vs. the reigning AFC champs in the Cincinnati Bengals. However, there is an argument that this Pittsburgh team is better without Big Ben but isn't being priced like it.

With a quarterback that can get the ball down the field and some upgrades on the O-line, is Pittsburgh +6.5 the side here considering they were 3-point dogs in Cincinnati a season ago? 

Find out with my best NFL picks and predictions for Steelers vs. Bengals, with kickoff on September 11. 

Steelers vs Bengals best odds

Steelers vs Bengals picks and predictions

Big Ben is out and Mitch Trubisky is in at quarterback for the Pittsburgh Steelers, who enter Week 1 as 6.5-point underdogs vs. the Bengals in Cincinnati Sunday afternoon. 

Trubisky adds some traits to this Pittsburgh offense that Roethlisberger didn't have, which includes passing the ball downfield. Ben finished 22nd in pass attempts of 20-plus yards and had 3.4 air yards per attempt which ranked in the basement of the league. Almost anyone is an upgrade with this offense. 

Trubisky is just a better athlete than Ben, and can also offer some athleticism by extending plays and creating yardage on the ground that last year’s quarterback didn’t have. Trubisky isn’t going to get any MVP votes, but he isn’t a three-point downgrade vs. the Bengals, which the spread is indicating.

Pittsburgh’s biggest issue last year was its awful O-line, and the team addressed some issues with the additions of center Mason Cole and right guard James Daniels, who rank as the team’s two best-graded linemen, per Pro Football Focus, heading into the season.  

Yes, the Bengals also upgraded their weakness on the O-line, but 6.5-points is a lot for this divisional rivalry and the largest the Bengals have been favored in a generation. Cincinnati was also torched by explosive pass plays last year, which will be more of an issue this Sunday without Roethlisberger. 

Pittsburgh was lucky to make the playoffs last year, but this is still a Top-10 defense and a new offense that should be able to score more than the 20 points it did last season vs. the Bengals and their league-average defense. 

Remember, the Bengals lost to the Bears, Jets, and Browns while also needing a field goal to defeat the Jaguars all before Week 10 last year. 

My best bet: Steelers +6.5 (-110 at bet365)

Steelers vs Bengals betting preview

Jump to:
•Spread analysis •Over/Under analysis •Game info •Injuries •Weather •Trend to know

Spread analysis

The Bengals begin their AFC title defense Sunday. Early bettors have not moved this line, which opened at 6.5 in favor of the home side back in May and hasn’t seen any movement. 

This is the biggest spread between the two rivals since 2013 when the Bengals closed as 7-point home favorites in Week 2. Last season, the Steelers hosted the Bengals as 2.5-point favorites in Week 3 and were 3-point dogs in Cincinnati in Week 12.

Pittsburgh failed to cover either of those games and managed to score just 10 points in each game, but have the Bengals become 3.5 points better than the Steelers since the last meeting?

Both offenses have upgraded their respective O-lines, which were massive weaknesses a season ago, while the Steelers enter with the better defense and a pass rush that will put the Bengals’ big spending to the test.

Roethlisberger is out for the first time in nearly two decades and Trubisky will get the nod for the visitors. Trubisky is not a Top-15 QB but does give this offense something it didn’t have last season with Roethlisberger, who averaged 3.4 air yards per attempt last season.

Joe Burrow had an appendectomy in the offseason and reportedly lost 20 pounds, but the quarterback looks to be back to full health heading into Week 1. 

Looking at injuries, the biggest name is Pittsburgh receiver Diontae Johnson, who is questionable with a shoulder injury but has had two weeks to get ready. Both teams come into this game generally healthy, which is why we haven’t seen any movement on the spread. 

Over/Under analysis

This total has also seen zero movement after opening at 44.5. Bettors would have likely hit this Over hard had it fallen on the other side of the key number of 44 and books have been reluctant to budge. 

Over the last five meetings, the total has closed higher than 44 just once. The jump is warranted with the weapons the Bengals have and the upgrades on both O-lines while Trubisky makes this Pittsburgh passing game slightly better than Ben.

Both offenses should sustain longer drives this year, as sacks should be less of a problem with the new additions. Having a sack on a drive decreases the chances of scoring from 2.29 points per drive to 0.99. The Bengals led the league in sacks taken per game a year ago, at 3.5, while Roethlisberger threw the ball underneath quickly to avoid sacks last season. 

Both defenses finished outside the Top 10 in success rate a season ago while the Bengals’ secondary was susceptible to big plays and allowed the second-most explosive pass plays. Pittsburgh’s issues on defense were on the rushing side of things, as no team allowed more explosive rushing plays than the Steelers in 2021. Joe Mixon averaged 127.5 rushing yards per game over two meetings a season ago.

Looking at the weather, Paycor Stadium could see some rain with a 71% chance of showers which bettors should monitor. 

Steelers vs Bengals game info

• Location: Paycor Stadium, Cincinnati, OH
• Date: Sunday, September 11, 2022
• Kickoff: 1:00 p.m. ET
• TV: CBS

Steelers vs Bengals key injuries

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Steelers vs Bengals weather

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Steelers vs Bengals betting trend to know

The Steelers are 16-5-2 ATS in their last 23 meetings in Cincinnati. Find more NFL betting trends for Steelers vs. Bengals.

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