Steelers vs Colts Prop Bets: Minshew Mania Continues Against Pittsburgh

Prop bet #1: For the Minshew

Gardner Minshew has proven he’s still a quality backup in the NFL when the pieces around him are making plays. More importantly, head coach Shane Steichen has been one of the best play-callers in the league this season and has helped elevate Minshew’s play regardless of whether Jonathan Taylor is playing or not.

The former Washington State folk hero has been serviceable for the Indianapolis Colts and sits 19th in EPA per play, 24th in success rate, and 26th in CPOE. He’s had a better season than a few NFL starters and has been among the best backup quarterbacks to take the field this year.

Minshew's play has been lifted by Steichen’s play-calling, which proved early on to be electric with rookie sensation Anthony Richardson appearing to be the next big thing in Indianapolis before the rookie got injured. While it hasn’t been an ideal situation for the Colts' new head coach, he’s still got his offense ranked 18th in EPA per play, 19th in EPA per dropback, and 23rd in EPA per rush.

Steichen believes enough in his play-calling and offensive weapons that he’s been letting Minshew throw the ball all around the yard like he’s back in Pullman running the air raid for Mike Leach. In nine starts this season, the former sixth-round pick has averaged 37.6 attempts per game.

Minshew has thrown at least 35 passes in six of his nine starts, including in his last three outings. This is also a Pittsburgh Steelers defense that’s been up and down at stopping the pass this season. They’ve allowed the 12th most passing yards per game in the NFL (226.9), and are coming off a game against the Patriots in which Bailey Zappe threw for 240 yards.

Between Michael Pittman Jr., Josh Downs, and Alec Pierce, Minshew and the passing game can take advantage of a Steelers secondary that is lacking quality starters outside of Joey Porter Jr. and Minkah Fitzpatrick.

Get your mustaches ready, Minshew mania is set to take over on Saturday.

Gardner Minshew prop: 35+ pass attempts (+105 at bet365)

Prop bet #2: Easy Pickens

Unlike the Colts, the Steelers have seen very little promise from backup Mitchell Trubisky this season. In his lone start against the 3-10 Patriots, he failed to generate a touchdown drive until Pittsburgh was down 21-3.

While it’s clear that Trubisky isn’t any threat to Kenny Pickett, play-caller Mike Sullivan ensured his best pass catchers had a steady dose of targets, even if it didn’t result in many explosive plays. In the loss to New England, George Pickens saw seven targets and caught five passes for just 19 yards.

Trubisky struggled to get in a rhythm downfield with the second-year playmaker, but it was clear that Sullivan wanted to get the ball in Pickens' hands. They called multiple screens and layup throws to the Steelers' leading receiver, and while it didn’t result in much, it’s been a consistent trend since Sullivan took over for Matt Canada.

In Sullivan’s three games calling plays for the Steelers, Pickens is averaging four receptions per game — slightly higher than his season average of 3.8. This season, the former Georgia star has caught at least four passes in eight of 13 games.

While the Colts' defense has been fairly stingy this year, they've got a lot of youth patrolling the secondary. Due to the abundance of inexperience, Indianapolis has allowed at least four receptions to 33 different pass catchers in 13 games.

George Pickens prop: Over 3.5 receptions (-110 at bet365)

Prop bet #3: Feliz Najeedad

Overall, Gus Bradley’s defense has been respectable this season but has struggled to stop the run. The Colts are 27th in EPA per rush on defense and giving 131.5 rushing yards per game, sixth most in the league.

Given the Steelers' timeshare at running back, it’s hard to pinpoint who is poised for the bigger workload between Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren. On the season, Harris has 171 carries to Warren’s 109, but the pair have been splitting carries for much of the second half of the season.

Since Sullivan took over play-calling in Week 12, Harris is averaging 14.3 carries per game to Warren’s 9.6. Warren is listed at +120 for an anytime TD, with Harris being slightly more bang for your buck.

This is a Colts defense that’s allowed the second most rushing touchdowns in the NFL this season, conceding 19 in 13 games, and they have allowed four touchdowns to running backs in its last two outings. With Harris handling the goal-line touches, he’s well-suited to find himself in a position to plunge into the end zone against this team.

Since being drafted by Pittsburgh in the first round, the former Alabama star has scored 24 touchdowns in 47 NFL contests. And while Harris' usage has dipped this year, he’s scored four touchdowns in his last eight games.

Between the Colts' struggles to stop the run and Harris remaining the starter in the Steelers' backfield, he’s our best bet to find paydirt for this pedestrian Pittsburgh offense.

Najee Harris prop: Anytime touchdown (+125 at bet365)