Steelers vs Raiders SNF Prop Bets: Watt Puts Pressure on Vegas

No fencing Pickett

Despite pretty much every metric pointing towards Kenny Pickett being a bust, he’s two for two hitting the Over on passing yards this season.

With one of the worst play-callers in the NFL, Matt Canada, trying to orchestrate an offense that creates little push in the run game, the Steelers continue to rely on Pickett even when his play is far from impressive.

But we don’t need him to look good, we just need him to throw for 221 yards, which he’s done in both his first two games; he’s averaging 227 per.

While Pittsburgh has only scored 33 points through two weeks, the Steelers haven’t shied away from being one of the most pass-heavy offenses in the NFL. They rank seventh in the NFL in pass attempts per game, with Pickett averaging 38.  

Looking purely at his averages (38 attempts per game, 5.97 yards per attempt), if Pickett keeps up his pace, he’ll throw for 226 yards against the Raiders.

What really helps instill confidence in this prop though is how awful the Raiders defense has been through two games.

They’re ranked 31st in the NFL in EPA per play on defense and 27th in EPA per dropback. Aside from Pro Bowler Maxx Crosby, who deals with constant double teams, there’s not much to fear in Vegas.

Even with the Steelers' offensive line woes, the Raiders pass rush has been one of the worst in the league, with rookie Tyree Wilson — the seventh overall pick in the 2023 NFL Draft — yet to even register a pressure.

If Pickett has enough time, his deep corps of weapons, even without Diontae Johnson, should be able to pick on one of the worst back sevens in the NFL. Running back Najee Harris and tight end Pat Freiermuth can create all kinds of mismatches against the linebacker duo of Robert Spillane and Divine Deablo, who are giving up a 77% completion rate when targeted.

As for the receivers, getting after this secondary should be no problem at all for George Pickens & Co...

Kenny Pickett prop: Over 220.5 passing yards (-110)

Pick of the Litter

Currently, most books have Pickens’ receiving yards total in this game hovering around 51.5 (-110), but he’s poised for a big day and there’s a better bet to be had at books that offer receiving yards milestones.

With how atrocious the Raiders secondary has been, and with Johnson still out, the Steelers will rely heavily on Pickens for big plays in the passing game.

He’s coming off the best game of his career against Cleveland: Four receptions for 127 yards, and the Browns have a far deeper secondary (and pass rush) than the Raiders.

A big part of the reason Las Vegas ranks 31st in EPA per play is because of the frequency in which its secondary gives up completions; Josh Allen and Russell Wilson combined to complete 82% of their passes against this team.

No matter where Pickens lines up, or who lines up on him, it will be a mismatch with his size and speed — just like on that 71-yard touchdown on Monday Night Football. 

This season, 30-year-old Marcus Peters has the title of Raiders top corner and he’s giving up 72.7% completion rate when targeted. Opposite him is rookie Jakorian Bennett, who was toasted against Buffalo, and has given up a 135.3 QB rating when targeted and a 92.3% completion rate.

Move Pickens into the slot and you get nickel Nate Hobbs with his 122.1 QB rating allowed and 80% completion rate. Bracket the Steelers' go-to receiver with a safety and you’ll have Marcus Epps (132.6 QB rating, 100% completion rate) and Tre’von Moehrig (136.5 QB rating, 87.5% completion rate).

Needless to say, Pickens can continue his primetime dominance against the Raiders on Sunday night.

George Pickens prop: 75+ receiving yards (+260 at bet365)

Show you Watt's good

The Steelers defense is what won them the game against the Browns, more specifically the pass rush tandem of TJ Watt and Alex Highsmith.

With Watt being -130 to record a sack on Sunday Night Football and Highsmith’s +120 being shaky simply because the Raiders have yet to give up a sack with how quickly Jimmy Garoppolo gets the ball out, the safest and best bet has to be the Over on Watt tackles.

Against a Raiders team that wants to run the ball with Pro Bowl running back Josh Jacobs, Watt should have plenty of opportunity to make plays out on the edge on top of his pass rush opportunities.

Las Vegas is averaging 22 runs per game and ranks 31st in EPA per rush, meaning Watt will be able to crash the party throughout this contest. He’s also picked up four sacks in his first two games of the season and will predominantly line up against right tackle Jermaine Eluemunor, a veteran journeyman.

Through two games this season, Watt is averaging 4.5 tackles per game, and looking back on his injury-filled season last year, he cleared 2.5 tackles in nine of 10 games. Go back to his Defensive Player of the Year season in 2021 and he hit Over 2.5 tackles in 12 of 15 games. For his career, Watt has averaged 3.8 tackles per game and 2.8 solo tackles.

TJ Watt prop: Over 2.5 tackles (+110)