Thursday Night Football hasn’t exactly had stellar matchups for us of late — and Week 14's game is again an NFL betting doozy as two of the NFL's most confounding teams face off when the Minnesota Vikings host the Pittsburgh Steelers.
The Steelers looked dead in the water when, by some divine miracle of a failed two-point conversion, upset the Baltimore Ravens last week, while the Vikings became the first squad to fall to the Detroit Lions this season.
With the Vikings laying three points, who is worth backing? Find out in our free NFL betting picks and predictions for Steelers vs. Vikings on Thursday, December 9.
Steelers vs Vikings odds
Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
This line opened with the Vikings as 3.5-point home favorites and the number has bounced back-and-forth between that and 3. The total hit the board at 45 and was down to 44 as of Tuesday evening.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until kickoff and be sure to check out the full NFL odds before placing your bets.
Steelers vs Vikings predictions
- Prediction: Steelers +3.5 (-110)
- Prediction: Under 44 (-110)
- Best bet: Harris Over 70.5 rushing yards (-115)
Predictions made on 12/07/2021 at 11:00 p.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Steelers vs Vikings game info
• Location: U.S. Bank Stadium, Minneapolis, MN
• Date: Thursday, December 9, 2021
• Time: 8:20 p.m. ET
• TV: FOX, NFL NETWORK
Steelers at Vikings betting preview
Weather
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Key injuries
Steelers: Joe Haden CB (Out), Isaiah Buggs DT (Out), B.J. Finney OL (Out).
Vikings: Adam Thielen WR (Out), Christian Darrisaw OL (Out).
Find our latest NFL injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Vikings are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games as a favorite. Find more NFL betting trends for Steelers vs. Vikings.
Steelers vs Vikings picks and predictions
Our predictions are compiled from the analysis of the spread and total and are indications of where we are leaning for this game.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this game, which we would actually put some of our bankroll behind.
Spread analysis
The Steelers looked like a dead team walking a few weeks ago. They tied the Lions and then gave up 41 points in consecutive losses to the Chargers and Bengals. And then, seemingly out of nowhere, Pittsburgh pulled off an upset of the Ravens.
Now, they came within one play of losing that game, and are just 4-7 ATS in their last 11 games, but there might be value on the underdogs in this one.
While the Steelers merely tied the Lions, the Vikings became the first team to lose to them this season. The loss was Minnesota’s fourth in its last six games and things went from bad to worse as a spiraling offense already without Dalvin Cook took another hit as it sounds like Adam Thielen will miss at least the next couple of weeks.
Is it possible for a quarterback who has thrown for 3,353 yards with 25 touchdowns and just three picks to somehow still stink? Well, it seems like Kirk Cousins has unlocked the secret. He just never seems to make the right throw when he needs to the most.
The matchup against the Steelers defense looks good on paper, but Pittsburgh figured some things out against Baltimore, limiting the Ravens to just 5.3 yards per play and they get back defensive player of the year candidate T.J. Watt.
The Steelers offense has its own set of problems, starting of course with Ben Roethlisberger, whose arm is seemingly attached to his shoulder by a fraying thread, but they have an edge when it comes to skill position players in this game. None more important than running back Najee Harris.
While the poor O-line play has made this season a grind for Harris, he goes against a battered Vikings run defense that ranks 29th in the NFL when it comes to DVOA and 31st in opponent yard per rush.
Harris and the Steelers' other skill position players will give them a chance to win this game but with both teams being so inconsistent we’ll take the points with the underdog.
Prediction: Steelers +3.5 (-110)
Over/Under analysis
While the side for this intriguing, yet infuriating matchup is more of a tossup, the total looks a little more clear-cut.
The Steelers have a shot to win this game, but if they do it’s because they run the ball. Efficiently, mind you. That’s because Big Ben looks like a shell of his former self. His arm looks weak, his mobility is, um, limited, and he's already been sacked 25 times this season as a result.
Mix in a suspect offensive line and it’s no surprise the Steelers average just 20.3 points per game. And while the Vikings aren’t great on defense, one thing they do well is pressure the quarterback, ranking second in the NFL in sacks.
The only team with more sacks than the Vikings this season? That would be the Pittsburgh Steelers. T.J. Watt should give Cousins a headache that lasts all game long. You can expect to see the Steelers blitz a little more than usual to try and force Cousins into some bad throws. And with him missing some weapons, that could be a serious problem.
Both defensive lines should control the flow of this game and make life hard on the quarterbacks, and with both running games struggling, scoring could be hard to come by in this one.
Prediction: Under 44 (-110)
Best bet
A makeshift offensive line and ineffective quarterback play have led to tough sledding for Steelers running back Najee Harris.
The rookie runner has totaled 779 yards on just 3.6 yards per carry this season, but despite the struggles, the Steelers are doing the right thing by continuing to feed him the ball. Harris has had at least 21 carries in six of his last eight games, and the two where he didn’t, the Steelers fell behind big early on.
Harris is also coming off a solid performance against a good Ravens run defense where he totaled 71 yards on 21 carries. And the Minny run defense doesn’t hold a candle to Baltimore.
As noted, the Vikes rank 29th against the run in DVOA, and the 4.7 yards per rush allowed is only better than the Steelers (of course). They allow over 130 rushing yards per game, and Harris is a bell-cow rusher.
It may be a grind but bet on the Steelers to feed Harris in this one and he'll easily surpass his yards total.
Pick: Najee Harris Over 70.5 rushing yards (-115)
