NFL Week 14 Survivor Picks: Banged-Up Giants No Match for Chargers in L.A.

Rarely have we been able to pat ourselves on the back during this NFL survivor pool season, but if you took our advice last Sunday and pumped the breaks on the Minnesota Vikings (our team to avoid), you’re welcome.

Minnesota was the most popular pick for poolies, taking on the winless Lions. But a nasty schedule spot and the Vikings’ bad habits in close games killed off a good chunk of pool players. We also guided you to winning survivor pool picks with Indianapolis (savvy pick) and the L.A. Rams (safe pick), who won their respective matchups by a combined score of 68-7. 

So, what do we do for an encore?

Here are our Week 14 survivor pool picks.

My pick: Los Angeles Chargers

The Bolts bounced the Bengals in Week 13 and now head home to play a broken Giants team possibly starting a third-string QB while also dealing with a COVID outbreak that has infected QBs coach Jerry Schuplinski. Not ideal.

Los Angeles has an implied win probability of 83.33%, which is second highest on the Week 14 board, and has a good shot of being alive in most pools if you avoided their schizophrenic turn midway through the schedule. The Chargers are the second most popular choice for survivor players this week, drawing 16% of selections.

Los Angeles does run the risk of a lookahead spot to next Thursday’s homestand with Kansas City, but the Giants can’t score, are a mess at quarterback, have a COVID outbreak, and cross the country for their second straight road game after getting roughed up in Miami last Sunday. If all you need is an outright win, the Bolts are money in the bank.

Safest pick: Green Bay Packers

The Packers are the safest selection on the Week 14 slate, though you’d be hard-pressed to find many survivor pool players who haven’t burned up the Cheeseheads just yet. And if you still have the Packers to play, do you really want to use them at home over Chicago?

That said, this section is supposed to feature the “safest pick” and if you’re just looking to get out of Week 14 with your head, Green Bay is the way to go. The Packers possess a win probability around 87% and are showing up as the fifth most popular selection this Sunday – most in part due to poolies picking Aaron Rodgers & Co. earlier in the year.

Chicago has just one win in its last seven games and has beaten Green Bay just twice in its last 13 trips to Lambeau Field, with the last upset coming way back in 2015. As for the Cheeseheads, they’re coming off a much-needed bye week after battling injuries the past month.

Here’s a look at the Top 5 favorites, in terms of moneyline odds and implied probability, for Week 14:

Odds above current at time of publish. Check live NFL moneyline odds and use our odds converter to convert any line to implied probability. 

Team to avoid: Dallas Cowboys

The Cowboys may have gotten a big win over New Orleans last Thursday, but this team hasn’t been quite right for a while, despite getting healthier on both sides of the ball. This week, Dallas stays on the road for the second straight game and travels to the nation’s capital to play the rival Washington Football Team.

Dallas boasts a win probability of 64.79% despite the Football Team rolling on a four-game win streak. On top of that, this is an outdoor December game for the Cowboys, who don’t take kindly to cooler weather. America’s Team is 25-31 as a visitor between Weeks 13 and 17 since 2000 – a win rate of less than 45%.

Dallas is showing up as the Week 14 pick in just over 2% of survivor pools this week – again, mostly due to being used up already – but has much better future value beyond this road stop in D.C., with upcoming games against the Giants and a homestand with the WFT. 

2021 survivor pool pick results

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