NFL Week 15 Survivor Picks: Don't Circle the Wagons in Buffalo

As if making it to Week 15 in your NFL survivor pool wasn’t already tough enough, now the pandemic is raging across the league and multiple teams have been hit hard, leaving their health for this week’s slate up in the air.

Perhaps the best advice I can give when it comes to making your Week 15 survivor pool picks is to maintain patience. Wait until closer to kickoff to lock in those selections, as you’ll know who is in and out. On top of that, have a Plan A, Plan B, and Plan C just in case your favorite pool pick suddenly has an outbreak. 

Unfortunately, I don’t have the liberty of waiting until the weekend to put out my weekly survivor pool picks, so double-check the injury reports and COVID lists before pulling the trigger on any of these selections in Week 15.

Good luck and be safe out there.

My pick: Philadelphia Eagles

The Eagles opened the Week 15 odds with an implied win probability around 64% and that was before injuries and COVID thinned out the Washington roster like the top of my head. Now, as of Thursday afternoon, the WFT has 17 players in COVID protocols (12 on defense) and takes on one of the trickier RPO attacks in the league.

Philadelphia now shows a win probability of 75.31% for Sunday’s NFC East clash, playing at home and fresh off a bye week. And even if Washington does get some bodies back, they’ve missed an entire week of prep. There’s a good chance the Eagles still remain on the board for many poolies, especially those who looked ahead to futures value and recognized a home-friendly finish to the season (three of the final four inside the Linc). 

Philly still has a homestand with the Giants on the board next week, so perhaps you stash them away. But with the way things are shaking down with cases going up, who knows what next week will bring. The Eagles are the sixth most popular survivor selection with just 4.5% of picks for Week 15.

Safest pick: Arizona Cardinals

The Cardinals are the biggest favorites on the Week 15 board, boasting an implied win probability of 87.33% visiting the Detroit Lions. Arizona may have lost star WR DeAndre Hopkins for the season but that may not matter – at least as far as this week’s survivor pick is concerned.

The Lions, who have been fighting a flu going around their locker room the last two weeks, are now among teams dealing with a COVID outbreak. Detroit held just its second full-team practice in 12 days on Wednesday under enhanced protocols and has nine players on the COVID list right now.

On top of the troubles with illnesses, a number of starters on both sides of the ball are injured and listed as questionable for Week 15. The Cardinals are on a short week after a loss to the L.A. Rams on Monday night but should be able to handle the 1-11-1 Lions, especially with a roster in shambles.

Here’s a look at the Top 5 favorites, in terms of moneyline odds and implied probability, for Week 15:

Odds above current at time of publish. Check live NFL moneyline odds and use our odds converter to convert any line to implied probability. 

Team to avoid: Buffalo Bills 

The Bills host Carolina and rank as the fifth most popular survivor pool pick for Week 15 – mainly because most poolies blew Buffalo a while ago. But if you still have Bills Mafia in your back pocket, you might not want to waste them on this game. Buffalo has great future value with New England, Atlanta, and the Jets ahead.

On top of that, Buffalo is in a bad spot in Week 15. Not only could the Bills fall victim to a letdown spot coming off matchups versus the Patriots and Bucs, but they could also get caught looking past the pesky Panthers to a rematch with Bill Belichick & Co. in Week 16. Throw in Josh Allen’s wonky foot and a possibility of a Mitch Trubisky start, and poolies may want to avoid circling the wagons in Week 15. 

2021 survivor pool pick results

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