NFL Week 17 Survivor Picks: Bearing Value on the Home Stretch

The finish line is so close for NFL survivor pool players, with just two more weeks of selections to go. 

More than likely, those poolies still alive at this point in the schedule are having to make some tough choices after burning up the NFL’s best just to get to this standing. 

If you listened to our survivor pool picks last week, then you’re standing strong as the calendar flips to 2022. We nailed the Falcons as our savvy selection, dialed in Dallas as our safe play, and said to avoid the Seahawks (who lost to Chicago at home).

We do our best Bear Grylls impersonation Sunday, giving up Week 17 survivor picks. Good luck.

My pick: Chicago Bears

We did say tough decisions, right? Chicago is at home to the Giants in Week 17, boasting an implied win probability of 71% — ninth-highest on the board. And with many pool players still holding Da Bears, Chicago is the fifth-most popular survivor selection in Week 17.

The Bears are coming off a big win in chilly Seattle last Sunday and could find a similar climate for this Windy City finale, with the forecast calling for crazy cold temperatures in the “feels like” stupid range (3 degrees) Sunday afternoon.

New York has lost four straight and five of its last six games, leaving little motivation in these closing contests – especially playing on the road in weather this bad. The Giants have some issues on the offensive line and take on a Chicago pass rush that has nine sacks the past three games and ranks sixth with 42 sacks on the season. 

The Bears are expecting either Andy Dalton or Justin Fields under center after both practiced this week, and a number of starters also returned to action, setting up Chicago for a strong showing in front of the Chi-town faithful Sunday.

Safest pick: New England Patriots

The Patriots dropped a big game to Buffalo at home last Sunday and have a chance to get right when the Jaguars come to town in Week 17. Jacksonville looks to be in active tank mode after bumbling through last week’s loss to the Jets, and the Patriots are still pushing for a better postseason spot.

Bill Belichick’s crew holds an implied win probability of 90.91%, which is highest on the Week 17 board. Adding to that safe selection is some possible wet winter weather in Gillette Stadium and the fact Belichick is 62-27 SU off a loss as the Patriots head coach. 

New England is the most popular pick among NFL survivor pools in Week 17, with nearly 25% of remaining players siding with the Pats. The Patriots do have a road trip to Miami next week – which has always been a tricky place to play – so if you still have New England in your holster, now’s the best time to use it.

Here’s a look at the Top 5 favorites, in terms of moneyline odds and implied probability, for Week 17:

Odds above current at time of publish. Check live NFL moneyline odds and use our odds converter to convert any line to implied probability. 

Team to avoid: Los Angeles Chargers 

The Chargers have been survivor pool poison since mid-October, most recently thinning out the herd with last week’s loss to Houston. Los Angeles was the most popular survivor selection of Week 16, with almost 33% of poolies backing the Bolts.

If you were lucky enough to avoid that shock last Sunday, you may want to pass on the Chargers again as lightning could strike twice. Los Angeles is at home to the Broncos, who beat L.A. in Denver back in Week 12. 

The Chargers boast a win probability of 72.6% and are garnering less than 3% of selections from poolies in Week 17. If you haven’t used up the Bolts at this point, it may be best to avoid one of the most erratic teams in the NFL this season.

2021 survivor pool pick results

Pages related to this topic