At this point, I don’t know whether to laugh or cry. Another week, another shitty NFL survivor pool selection. At least when it comes to my “savvy” picks.
My “safe” NFL survivor pool selections are still going strong, which makes me think the best survivor pool strategy maybe be a classic coaching cliché: Keep it simple, stupid – better known as the KISS method – and let everyone else out-think their way out of the contest.
We kissed our Circa Sports Survivor Pool entry and a shot at a cool $6 million goodbye weeks ago, but since no one has asked me to stop (for the love of God, please stop!) writing this weekly piece, I serve up my Week 5 survivor pool picks.
My pick: Baltimore Ravens
The Ravens are coming off their best outing of the season, a solid Week 4 win at Denver in which they returned plenty of key players on both sides of the ball. Baltimore is back home for just the second time this season and welcomes the Indianapolis Colts on Monday Night Football in Week 5. The Colts find themselves in a rare spot, playing their third straight game on the road after a victory in Miami last Sunday.
The Ravens own an implied win probability of 75.90 percent for this matchup, which is fifth-highest on the Week 5 board. However, less than eight percent of poolies are picking Baltimore as their top survivor selection. The teams above the Ravens, in terms of pick popularity, have slightly better win probabilities, but nothing to make us balk on Baltimore.
Depending on how your survivor pool is set up, you may also like the fact that the Ravens don’t play on Thanksgiving (Week 12) or during the three-game weekday slate for Christmas (Week 16) which are being graded as standalone schedules in some contests, such as the Circa Survivor Pool.
Safest pick: Minnesota Vikings
Oooooooo, we’re getting to that point in which the “safe” picks don’t feel as safe as they did back in September.
We’ve already used up Tampa Bay, so we can’t bank on the Bucs and their pumped-up win probability, and I have a tough time trusting the Patriots and a rookie QB in an obvious letdown spot on the road in Houston.
That leads us to the Vikings, who own an implied probability of victory of 79.59 percent hosting the Detroit Lions in Week 5. I was interested in betting the Lions +9.5 this week but as I started to dig into Detroit, I saw the body count stacking up on the injury report.
At 1-3 on the year, Minnesota is coming off a close loss to Cleveland but has played against much tougher opposition to start the schedule than others. The Lions at home are a big downshift in gears and Minny should get us to the 1/3 mark of the season.
Here’s a look at the Top 5 favorites, in terms of moneyline odds and implied probability, for Week 5:
| Team | Moneyline odds | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|
| Tampa Bay | -500 | 83.33% |
| New England | -425 | 80.95% |
| Minnesota | -390 | 79.59% |
| Dallas | -320 | 76.19% |
| Baltimore | -315 | 75.90% |
Odds above current at time of publish. Check live NFL moneyline odds and use our odds converter to convert any line to implied probability.
Team to avoid: Tennessee Titans
Oh, did you think I meant to write “Jacksonville Jaguars”? Nope, T-I-T-A-N-S. Tennessee is not only coming off a loss to the Jets, but this is its second straight road game, third road game in four weeks, and could serve as a potential lookahead spot to next Sunday night’s showdown with the Buffalo Bills.
The Titans defense is crap and injuries are mounting on both sides of the ball. The offensive line couldn’t keep Ryan Tannehill clean versus New York, allowing seven sacks, and the Jaguars can bring pressure – ranked 11th in pressure percentage and ninth in QB hurries. Jacksonville has also had a mini bye after playing its best game of the season (a loss to Cincinnati) last Thursday, as you’ve likely heard about.
The Urban Meyer drama could be distracting poolies from problems going on in the Music City and the Titans boast a win probability of just 66.67 percent, which hasn’t scared off survivor players, selecting Tennessee at a 3.6 percent clip – sixth-most popular in Week 5.
2021 survivor pool pick results
| Week | Survivor Pick | Result | Safe Pick | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Minnesota | LOSS | L.A. Rams | WIN |
| 2 | Pittsburgh | LOSS | Tampa Bay | WIN |
| 3 | Kansas City | LOSS | Denver | WIN |
| 4 | New Orleans | LOSS | Buffalo | WIN |
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