NFL Week 7 Survivor Picks: Backing Belichick To Beat Up Gang Green Again

There's a number of big favorites for survivor poolies this week, and Jason Logan's selection is going with one of those teams... even if the Patriots are 2-4 on the season. See why he's backing Belichick & Co. in his Week 7 Survivor Pool picks.

Jason Logan: Senior Betting Analyst at Covers
Jason Logan • Senior Betting Analyst
Oct 20, 2021 • 15:15 ET • 4 min read
Jonnu Smith New England Patriots NFL
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For the second straight Sunday, both of our NFL survivor pool picks — savvy and safe — were spot on. The latter of those two categories advancing to Week 7 of the schedule unblemished.

We still have more than 80 percent of the 32 teams at our disposal but with fortunes flipping and injury reports growing by the game, selecting a solid survivor pool pick is getting trickier — even when leaning on those big favorites... And boy do we have some big-ass faves in Week 7.

Here are my Week 7 survivor pool picks — savvy and safe — as well as one team to avoid. Good luck. 

My pick: New England Patriots

The Patriots showed some real marbles in a wild overtime loss to the Cowboys last Sunday. But while it went down as a defeat, that tight contest was a unifying battle for New England and a rapid maturation for rookie QB Mac Jones.

The Patriots stay home in Week 7 hosting the Jets — a team they blasted 25-6 in East Rutherford in Week 2. New York is coming off a bye week after playing in London in Week 5, dropping to 1-4 with that neutral-site loss to Atlanta.

New England boasts an implied win probability of 76.19 percent for this AFC East grudge match, with the Patriots winning 12 straight home games against Gang Green going back to 2009. While we usually dance around the more popular survivor pool picks in this section — and the Pats are drawing more than 14 percent of picks in Week 7 — we can’t deny the value we’re getting with a 2-4 team.

This isn’t the highest win projection on the board but allows us to save some hefty faves like Arizona, Green Bay, Tampa Bay, and the L.A. Rams for further picks down the road, including those standalone holiday slates on Thanksgiving and Christmas (if your pool is into that sort of thing).

Safest pick: Green Bay Packers

The Cheeseheads didn’t walk over Chicago last week but broke the Bears in the fourth quarter to improve to 5-1 and now head back to Lambeau Field for just the third time this season, hosting Washington in Week 7.

The Packers have a win probability of 80 percent on Sunday, which is pretty safe. The wild thing is that that projection is the fourth-highest win probability on the board, behind Arizona, the L.A. Rams, and Tampa Bay. We’ve already burned up the Rams and Bucs with our safe selections in the opening two weeks and want to save the Cardinals for their Xmas Day clash with the Colts.

Green Bay is drawing the second-highest percentage of picks in Week 7 at 17.6 percent, however, with Arizona attracting an incredible 47 percent of survivor pool selections — so we feel pretty smart and safe with this move.

Here’s a look at the Top 5 favorites, in terms of moneyline odds and implied probability, for Week 7:

Team Moneyline odds Implied probability
Arizona -1,500 93.75%
L.A. Rams -1,000 90.91%
Tampa Bay -450 88.24%
Green Bay -400 80.00%
New England -320 76.19%

Odds above current at time of publish. Check live NFL moneyline odds and use our odds converter to convert any line to implied probability. 

Team to avoid: Las Vegas Raiders

With so many big favorites on the board in Week 7, survivor poolies shouldn’t try to overthink this week’s selection. But, if you’re one of those folks who can’t get out of your own way (or you already blew your wad on all those top-tier teams), stay clear of the Raiders.

Las Vegas is coming off a drama-loaded Week 6 in which it gave its head coach the boot in the wake of some pretty terrible emails, then rallied around the locker room and scored a big divisional road win in Denver last Sunday. Something smells like a letdown…

This week, the Silver and Black are back home facing a media frenzy, as well as a Philadelphia Eagles team coming off a mini bye after playing last Thursday. Las Vegas has a win probability of 61.54 percent yet is showing up in less than 1 percent of survivor selections. That’s for a reason.

2021 survivor pool pick results

Week Survivor Pick Result Safe Pick Result
1 Minnesota LOSS L.A. Rams WIN
2 Pittsburgh LOSS Tampa Bay WIN
3 Kansas City LOSS Denver WIN
4 New Orleans LOSS Buffalo WIN
5 Baltimore WIN Minnesota WIN
6 Cincinnati WIN Indianapolis WIN

Where can I bet on the NFL?

You can bet on NFL odds at every online and casino sportsbook, including NFL moneylines, spreads, Over/Under totals, and a ton of NFL prop odds. Head over to our best football betting sites for the top spots to bet on NFL odds in your area.

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Jason Logan Senior Industry Analyst Covers.com
Senior Betting Analyst

In his 20 years with Covers, lead NFL betting analyst “JLo” has seen it all and bet it all. Through the wild west of early Internet gambling to lobbying for legalized sports betting to our brave new wagering world, Jason has been a consistent source of actionable info and entertainment for squares and sharps alike.

Since joining the Covers team back in 2005, he’s honed his handicapping skills to provide audiences with the most thorough insights, blending traditional capping methods with advanced modelling and predictive analysis. Jason has studied the ins and outs of the sports betting business, learning from some of the most successful gamblers in the industry and the biggest sportsbook operators on the planet.

He is under center for Covers during NFL season as our top NFL expert, taking the points in his infamous “NFL Underdogs” column and representing the Covers Community at the Super Bowl. While he lives for football season, Jason’s first love is basketball and that shows in his in-depth NBA, NCAA, and WNBA betting breakdowns.

On top of being a mainstay in media from coast to coast – WPIX, PHL17, Fox 5 San Diego, WGNO, TSN, SportsNet, ESPN Radio – he’s had his analysis featured in USA Today, MSNBC, ESPN, the Wall Street Journal, CBS, Bloomberg, the L.A. Times, the New York Times and other major publications. You can also find JLo stuffing all the top picks and predictions he can into 10 minutes as the host of Covers’ flagship podcast, The Sharp 600.

His best advice for bettors new and old is “Handicapping isn’t a ‘one size fits all’ process. The impact and importance of information varies from bet to bet. Treat each wager different than the last.”

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