It’s a week of big decisions and we’re not just talking about the election.
NFL survivor pools are heading down the home stretch in Week 10 and if you’ve made it this far, you’ve got to be extra calculated about your picks.
I avoided using up the larger chalk in Week 9 and made my way to the Minnesota Vikings, who were able to seal the deal in the second half of their matchup with Indianapolis.
Unlike some others, I also dodged New Orleans’ faceplant against the Panthers, putting me among the 32 remaining entries in Covers’ 10K Pro Football Survivor contest.
Here’s my Week 10 NFL survivor pool pick and the safest selection, according to the NFL odds.
Teams used: Buffalo, L.A. Chargers, Seattle, Houston, Chicago, Green Bay, Cincinnati, Denver, Minnesota
Best survivor pool bets for Week 10
Click on each pick to read the full analysis.
Covers Week 10 survivor pool pick
Philadelphia Eagles
Opponent: at Dallas Cowboys
Moneyline odds: -370 (78.72% implied win probability)
The look-ahead line for this NFC East contest was Dallas -2 in the summer. And even heading into Week 9, bookmakers had the Philadelphia Eagles as a short road favorite.
But with the Cowboys getting crushed by Atlanta on Sunday and losing QB Dak Prescott and star WR CeeDee Lamb to injury, the Eagles are now laying more than a touchdown in Big D.
Philadelphia does present some future value with upcoming games against Carolina in Week 14 and a season finale versus New York, but who knows the team’s plans in Week 18. The rest of the schedule looks a lot tighter, so this feels like the right spot to fly with Philly.
The Cowboys could get back some key cogs on defense, like Micah Parsons, but without Dak and CeeDee, the Dallas offense is among the worst in the league. The Eagles, on the other hand, have some names on the injury report in A.J. Brown and Saquon Barkley, but both players are trending toward actives in Week 10.
Safest Week 10 survivor pool pick
Kansas City Chiefs
Opponent: vs. Denver Broncos
Moneyline odds: -425 (80.95% implied win probability)
This “safe” pick looked a little safer before the Kansas City Chiefs needed overtime to beat the Buccaneers on Monday night. Yet, even with a downtick in the Week 10 odds, Kansas City is the largest favorite on the board.
This is a tough spot for K.C. with a short turnaround for a divisional opponent and a potential look-ahead spot in play, due to a trip to Buffalo waiting in Week 11. We also have Patrick Mahomes’ aching ankle to consider.
The Denver Broncos got mowed down in Baltimore last Sunday, losing 41-10 while facing a similar-sized spread (+9). The Broncos have been able to hang with mid-tier competition thanks to their defense but back-to-back roadies against the top two teams in the AFC is a hard ask.
