As if NFL survivor pools haven’t been hard enough in 2024, any remaining entries find themselves facing a “Purge-like” Week 14 schedule.
Not only are there plenty of tight contests to sort through (eight games with spreads shorter than six points), but six teams are on bye weeks, which really puts poolies in a bind if you didn’t plan ahead.
While my Covers 10K Survivor Contest hopes went down the crapper in Week 12, I’ll still playing along for the sake of this article, and that means limiting selections to my remaining teams.
I break down my top NFL survivor pick for Week 14 as well as the safest selection, according to the NFL odds.
Teams used: Buffalo, L.A. Chargers, Seattle, Houston, Chicago, Green Bay, Cincinnati, Denver, Minnesota, Philadelphia, Washington (X), Tampa Bay.
Best survivor pool bets for Week 14
Click on each pick to read the full analysis.
Covers Week 14 survivor pool picks
Miami Dolphins
Opponent: vs. New York Jets
Moneyline odds: -300 (75% implied win probability)
I didn’t bite on the Miami Dolphins as big faves in Week 11 or Week 12, though I definitely should have. The Fins thaw out in South Beach after an ice-cold loss at Green Bay on Thanksgiving Day, hosting a stumbling New York Jets team.
New York blew a big lead against Seattle at home on Sunday and that could really be it for Gang Green, putting the cherry on top of the shit sundae that’s been the 2024 season.
I don’t know if Miami deserves to be this big a favorite considering its best efforts have come against weak teams like Las Vegas, New England, and the L.A. Rams. But we can group the Jets into that category, especially when they hit the road.
New York is 1-5 SU outside of MetLife Stadium with an average margin of -10.3 as a true visitor.
Safest Week 14 survivor pool picks
Philadelphia Eagles
Opponent: vs. Carolina Panthers
Moneyline odds: -650 (86.67% implied win probability)
The Philadelphia Eagles go from a possible Super Bowl preview against the Ravens in Week 13 to a nice Sunday walk in the park in Week 14, hosting the Carolina Panthers as near two-TD chalk.
Philadelphia should be able to just run the ball down Carolina’s throat, in this matchup between the NFL’s best rushing offense and its worst rushing defense. Bryce Young will also get a taste of Vic Fangio’s disguising defensive schemes.
However, the Panthers have been pesky, putting a scare in survivor pool players who selected Kansas City or Tampa Bay the past two weeks (myself included). But if we look at historical win/loss records for favorites this big, you can take comfort in knowing that home moneyline chalk of -300 or higher wins 82% of the time since 1985.
Most popular Week 14 picks in the Covers $10K survivor pool
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