If you’re still alive in the NFL survivor pool entering Week 18, I have to ask: What the hell are you doing here?
Not to be self-deprecating, but you’re obviously much better at survivor pools than me.
Not only did I get knocked off back in Week 12, but I also used this article to highlight the Indianapolis Colts in Week 17 — the only point-spread favorite to lose outright last week.
However, for the sake of seeing this through to the end and perhaps providing some food for thought as you measure and weigh your final selection, here are my Week 18 survivor pool NFL picks and the safest side, according to the NFL odds.
Teams used: Buffalo, L.A. Chargers, Seattle, Houston, Chicago, Green Bay, Cincinnati, Denver, Minnesota, Philadelphia, Washington (X), Tampa Bay, Miami, Arizona, Indianapolis (X)
Best survivor pool bets for Week 18
Click on each pick to read the full analysis.
Covers Week 18 survivor pool pick
Pittsburgh Steelers
Opponent: (vs. Cincinnati Bengals
Moneyline odds: +110 (47.6% implied win probability)
Even with my entry in Covers’ 10K Pro Football Survivor Contest long fossilized, I’ll play along with my remaining teams on the season. There’s a good chance many of you are staring at similar options.
That leads me to the Pittsburgh Steelers.
Pittsburgh is a home underdog hosting Cincinnati on Saturday night. The Steelers don’t lack any motivation in Week 18, needing a win to secure the No. 5 seed in the AFC and a Wild Card trip to Houston. A loss could send Pittsburgh to Baltimore in the opening round.
The Steelers’ recent troubles have a lot to do with a rotten stretch of schedule which has had them either on the road or playing elite teams in a tight window. Pittsburgh now gets to come home with extra time to prep for the Bengals, thanks to playing last Wednesday.
Mike Tomlin is 41-12 SU in divisional home games during his tenure in Steele Town. Put those AFC North rivalries inside Acrisure in the final six games of the season (Week 13 to 18), and Pittsburgh is 21-2 SU since 2007.
Safest Week 18 survivor pool pick
Baltimore Ravens
Opponent: vs. Cleveland Browns
Moneyline odds: -2200 (95.6% implied win probability)
The Ravens need to win to secure the AFC North title and a home game in the Wild Card round. The current spread is as high as Baltimore -20.
Historically, there have been 13 favorites of 20 points or more since 1985, and all 13 have won outright (3-10 ATS).
There’s not much of an explanation behind selecting Baltimore, and if you’ve stashed the Ravens until Week 18, congrats on your win.
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
