After one week of football, 2024 NFL survivor pools have the same mortality rate as a blind crab fisherman in the middle of typhoon season.
The Cincinnati Bengals’ 16-10 loss to the New England Patriots last Sunday dusted almost 40% of entries in Covers' free-to-play Pro Football Survivor contest despite Cincy boasting an implied win probability of more than 80%.
Hopefully you read my survivor pool tips, in which I warned about following the herd when it comes to your weekly selections.
I took the Buffalo Bills instead, which had me sweating for most of Sunday’s matchup with Arizona, but they held on for a win to advance my entry into Week 2.
Here’s my NFL survivor pool pick for Week 2 as well as the safest selection (like that means anything at this point) according to the NFL odds.
Best survivor pool bets for Week 2
Click on each pick to read the full analysis.
Covers Week 2 survivor pool pick
Los Angeles Chargers
Opponent: at Carolina Panthers
Moneyline odds: -275 (73% win probability)
I’ll be up front with you. I’m not crazy about this Week 2 pick but I think it sets me up well for the rest of the season. Let’s hope I’m not getting too cute here.
The Los Angeles Chargers will likely never get an easier win than the one that’s waiting for it in Charlotte this Sunday. And I don’t want to be banking on the Bolts when money’s on the line later in the year.
The Carolina Panthers were absolutely smacked by the rival Saints this weekend, and fading the worst team in the league each week can be a successful strategy. I don’t think Carolina is as bad as it looked in the opener, but L.A. doesn’t need to do anything fancy to grind out a victory.
That’s kind of the script for Jim Harbaugh’s team. You’re going to get a ton of run from the Chargers, and when they don’t hand off, the passing playbook is keeping it neat and tidy with short looks and an average depth of target just over six yards. That means little room for mistakes that could burn your survivor selection.
Defensively, the Bolts beat up the Raiders in Week 1 and face an even weaker offense this Sunday. Bryce Young is “not serious people” and has very little around him in terms of skill positions. The Saints sacked the former No. 1 pick four times and snatched two interceptions, and L.A. put up similar stats versus Las Vegas.
Of all the big favorites in Week 2, Los Angeles is one of the more deserving considering overreaction to those openers can falsely puff up probabilities. A touchdown win for the Chargers seems within the realm of reality, which is why we're seeing seem as the second most popular pick across survivor pools in Week 2 (23%).
Covers Week 2 safest survivor pool pick
Baltimore Ravens
Opponent: vs. Las Vegas Raiders
Moneyline odds: -500 (83% win probability)
The Baltimore Ravens have been in a bad mood since last Thursday when they were a big toe away from potentially taking a win from the Super Bowl champs on the road. They've had a mini-bye to stew in that frustration, releasing it all on the Las Vegas Raiders, who have an early wake-up call in this 1 p.m. ET start.
Las Vegas was just steamrolled by what I’m calling the “West Coast Ravengers” — a.k.a. the Chargers — who had Baltimore’s former OC Greg Roman and two former Baltimore running backs stacking up 176 yards on the ground in Week 1.
Now the Silver and Black get a taste of the real thing as well as a Baltimore defense that’s had extra time to prep. Head coach John Harbaugh is 42-4 all-time when set as a favorite of more than a touchdown — a 91% win rate since 2008.
I have faith in the Harbaugh boys in Week 2. It would seem most poolies do as well, with 32% of selections on Baltimore.
Get your Covers $10K survivor picks in for Week 2
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