We’ve made it to October, which is not something many NFL survivor pool players can say this season.
The first four weeks of football were like the bubonic plague for pools, with the Covers 10K Pro Football Survivor Contest down to just 75 of its original 3,789 entries. That’s less than a 2% survival rate. Perhaps I’m giving the “Black Death” too much credit.
(BTW: if you’re among the 98% of survivor pool players who got wrecked in September, the good guys at Covers are offering redemption. Check out the “Second Chance Survivor Contest” for a shot at $5,000.)
While Week 4 wasn’t as bat-shit crazy as the previous slates, a good chunk of remaining players were dusted by the Denver Broncos’ upset win over the New York Jets.
I barely got by with my pick on the Houston Texans, who scored a last-minute touchdown to beat the Jacksonville Jaguars. Close calls aside, I’m in pretty good shape with some heavyweights still available for tight spots down the road.
As for Week 5, it’s tougher board to choose from. There are only a few sizable favorites and just four teams with an implied win probability greater than 65%.
At this point, my NFL picks are not just backing teams to win, but also counting on teams to lose.
Here’s my NFL Week 5 survivor pick and the “safest” option, according to the latest NFL odds.
(Teams used: Buffalo, L.A. Chargers, Seattle, Houston)
Best survivor pool bets for Week 5
Click on each pick to read the full analysis.
Covers Week 5 survivor pool pick
Chicago Bears
Opponent: vs. Carolina Panthers
Moneyline odds: -190 (65.52% implied win probability)
One valid survivor pool strategy is to simply pick against the worst team in the league. We’re doing a little bit of that with this selection of the Chicago Bears.
The Bears are at home facing the Carolina Panthers, boasting the third-highest win probability of Week 5.
The Panthers are putting up more of a fight since swapping QBs, but enter this Sunday decimated on defense. The stop unit just lost top LB Shaq Thompson and has multiple first-teamers out for Week 5, making an already suspect defense an almost non-existent one.
Chicago’s defense, on the other hand, is very much there. The Bears turned the switch on midway through last season and have continued to cause chaos, entering Week 5 rated Top 5 in many advanced metrics — along with five interceptions and three fumble recoveries.
As long as Caleb Williams and the offense don’t shoot themselves in the foot, this should be one of the easier wins on the schedule for Da Bears. Chicago doesn’t hold too much future value down the road, so I’ll burn them up rather than use the 49ers.
Safest Week 5 survivor pool pick
San Francisco 49ers
Opponent: vs. Arizona Cardinals
Moneyline odds: -350 (77.78% implied win probability)
And speaking of the San Francisco 49ers, here they are holding down the “safest” selection in Week 5. It’s a paper crown, as we’ve come to learn in the topsy-turvy world of 2024 survivor pool picking.
The 49ers are dealing with injuries on both sides of the football and have a potential look-ahead spot hanging over them, with a Week 6 appearance on Thursday Night Football looming.
The Arizona Cardinals have been squashed by a combined 62-27 the past two weeks and sit near the bottom of most defensive measurements. While Arizona has lost four in a row to San Francisco, the Cards are 7-7 SU versus Kyle Shanahan dating back to 2017.
Most popular Week 5 picks in the Covers $10K survivor pool
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