Tampa Bay Buccaneers Odds, Predictions, and Betting Preview 2022: Brady Back to Earth?

Regardless of how the 2022 season trickles down for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, this year is going to make for one compelling episode of “Man in the Arena” based on the offseason alone.

Tom Brady’s retirement had the life span of a New Year’s resolution and Bruce Arians hung up his Kangol and Darth Vader chest piece, turning the team over to promoted defensive coordinator Todd Bowles. 

On paper, all the pieces of a championship team are still in Tampa and the Bucs’ NFL odds confirm that outlook, pricing them among the top contenders in terms of Super Bowl, NFC title, and season win total markets.

We poke around the pirate ship to figure out the best ways to wager on Tampa Bay in 2022 (Unders off the starboard bow!). Ahoy, Tampa Bay Buccaneers NFL betting preview ahead!

Tampa Bay Buccaneers futures odds

Best futures bet: Over 11 wins (+110)

Given the look-ahead lines siding with the Buccaneers in all but one game (that being a PK at 49ers in Week 14), it’s no surprise to find Tampa Bay’s win total as high as 11.5 at many popular books, with the Under priced between -125 and -135.

Superbook is hanging Under 11 -130 as of this writing — promoting Over 11 wins at +110 with push protection at a better return than some places hanging Over 11.5 (+105).

Doing a rough rundown of the Bucs’ calendar, it doesn’t take a major deep dive to dig up at least 11 victories. Tampa does tackle a much tougher schedule compared to last season but gets the benefit of playing host in a number of big games.

I do expect the offense to take steps back after ranking No. 1 in DVOA at Football Outsiders, but it still finishes inside the Top 10, complementing a Top-10 stop unit. That’s good enough for a dozen Ws in 2022.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers betting overview

What will win bets: Defense

Brady Shmady. The beating heart of the Buccaneers is Todd Bowles’ defense. 

Tampa Bay was ranked 32nd in DVOA back in 2018 and has since finished No. 6, No. 5, and No. 9 in that advanced measurement the past three years, headlined by one of the stingiest run stops in the land. The Bucs owned the fifth-lowest EPA per handoff in 2021 and had the eighth-most tackles for a loss.

Taking away the ground game makes opposing offenses one-dimensional and then unleashes a lethal linebacker corps with a playbook that blitzed on a league-high 40.8% of dropbacks and picked up a pressure rate of 28.6% (second-highest) with 42 sacks. That chaos caused many game-changing plays in the way of turnovers, with 17 interceptions and 12 fumble takeaways. 

Tampa Bay ranked out 16th in my QB SOS but runs into a number of quality offensive attacks. Wrangling those formidable foes is vital to the Bucs making good on all those favored spreads in 2022. 

What will lose bets: Offensive line

Tampa Bay ranked out as the best pass protection team in football last season, sitting No. 1 in adjusted sack rate at Football Outsiders and allowing Brady to feel the heat on just 11% of dropbacks with 22 sacks taken.

The offseason saw the sudden retirement of guard Ali Marpet and Alex Cappa signing with Cincinnati. Those blows were softened a bit by the acquisition of Shaq Mason from the Patriots, but depth on the O-line is quickly becoming a sore spot this summer. 

Guard Aaron Stinnie and center Ryan Jensen are already gone for the season (knees) and All-Pro tackle Tristan Wirfs has been battling an oblique injury in camp. That leaves massive holes in this line, which faces a bunch of potent pass rushes to open the year. 

Tom Brady’s mobility is that of a 45-year-old sloth covered in molasses in the middle of a Canadian winter. So, you can see where this is going. He’s given his teams the edge at quarterback throughout his career – an edge that may be dulled in 2022. 

With father time sneaking up, a downtick in protection, and aggressive pass rushes nullifying his effectiveness, the Bucs may be behind the curve in QB comparisons with the likes of Prescott, Rodgers, Mahomes, Jackson, Stafford, Burrow, and Kyler Murray on deck.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers game-by-game odds

Tampa Bay is a favorite in all but one game in 2022 (PK at San Francisco in Week 14), adding up to an average spread of -4.94. It drew the same number of favored look-aheads in 2021 when it was coming off a Super Bowl win, but faced a much lighter load, ranked out 29th in SOS last season (and it got easier as the year went on).

All that 2022 chalk comes despite the Buccaneers drawing the fourth-hardest schedule this season. That said, Tampa gets many of its toughest foes at home: Green Bay, Kansas City, Baltimore, the L.A. Rams, and Cincinnati. The Buccos are 12-4 SU and 11-5 ATS at home the past two seasons.

Six of their spreads come in at a field goal or lower. Since Brady took over as captain of the pirate ship, the “Tampa Toms” have been faves of -3 or smaller just three times in two seasons, finishing 1-2 SU and ATS. On the flip of this, the Bucs are giving six or more points in six games, with the team posting a 20-2 SU mark and 13-9 ATS count (59%) when laying -6 or higher.

Tampa Bay opens 2022 with back-to-back road games but then plays five of the next eight contests inside Raymond James Stadium with only two true road trips and a neutral-site matchup in Germany before the bye in Week 11.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers pro betting insights

Hitman, professional bettor (@Hitman428)

I get the reasons for concern about the offensive line, and also the reasons for concern on Brady entering his age 45 season. However, I won’t be the one betting against him.

Catch the Hitman NFL Release Show on Covers every Thursday and Friday throughout the NFL season!

Adam Chernoff, The Simple Handicap podcast (@adamchernoff)

Tampa Bay Buccaneers early season forecast

The schedule-makers throw Brady and the Bucs right into the fray with one of the most challenging opening slates in the NFL. A rematch of the 2021 opener is in store for Week 1, with Tampa Bay opening as big as -2.5 at Dallas on Sunday Night Football and sliding to -1 over the summer.

The Bucs open NFC South play in the Big Easy in Week 2. This is another spread moving away from Tampa Bay, opening -4 and now down to -3 at some shops. The Saints are pegged for improvement and have owned Brady and the Bucs the past two years, going 4-0 SU and ATS in the regular season (with one playoff loss).

It’s a hell of a home opener vs. Aaron Rodgers and the Packers in Week 3. Tampa Bay is out there between -3 and -3.5, so depending on which side you like, you’ll want to dance around the half-point hook. This is a rare underdog spot for the Cheeseheads, who are 9-2 ATS when getting the points in three seasons under Matt LaFleur. 

Tampa Bay Buccaneers spot bet

Week 4 vs. Kansas City (-2.5, 53)

Tampa Bay doesn’t run into many tough spots in 2022 but does find itself benefitting from opponents’ schedule snares a couple of times, including this Super Bowl LV rematch with Kansas City in Week 4. 

The Chiefs also have a doozy of an opening stretch, playing three of the first four on the road. Kansas City is at Arizona in Week 1 and plays the L.A. Chargers at home on Thursday in Week 2, giving them an extended breather before back-to-back road games. The Chiefs are at Indianapolis in Week 3 then come to Raymond James to battle the Bucs in Week 4, getting 2.5 points from Tampa Bay.

The Bucs also catch New Orleans in a tough spot on Monday Night Football in Week 13. It’s the Saints’ third road game in four weeks in a stretch that includes defensive monsters Pittsburgh, Los Angeles, San Francisco, and Tampa Bay. A bye awaits NOLA the next week, so a potential look-ahead is also at play.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers totals tip

On paper, this Tampa attack is loaded with playmakers and the return of Brady boosts the bettors’ expectations. The Bucs have a dozen totals of 48 points or higher and seven of those numbers sit at 50+. As mentioned above, however, the foundation of this offense is crumbling, with departures and injuries across the offensive line, and that will hurt this promising passing attack. 

On top of that, Bowles is pushing for more balance in the playbook after running the ball just 33.54% of the time in 2021 – the lowest run-call rate in the league. The run game may become even more prevalent if Brady gets blasted on dropbacks.

Defensively, the Buccaneers will remain an elite unit. While the schedule does feature some notable offenses lining up across from Tampa Bay, this defense is up to the task. The Buccaneers finished sixth in points allowed per play last year, yet the team went 9-8 Over/Under in the regular season. That had a lot to do with the offense (third in points per play), which will see its output shrink in 2022. 

Plunder the Unders in Pirate Bay before the market corrects those tall look-ahead totals.

Star power: Tom Brady props

Best prop: Under 4,600.5 passing yards (-120)

The offseason drama around Tom Brady doesn’t paint the prettiest picture (He’s out. He’s In. He’s not at camp. He is.), but that’s not why I’m going Under on TB12’s passing yards in 2022. The massive regression from this offensive line will force Brady to keep throws quick and snappy, slimming his air yards per completion as well as leading to less accurate passes under duress. 

Brady attempted a career-high 719 passes for an NFL-best 5,316 yards in 2021 (another career high), blowing away his preseason passing prop of 4,750.5 yards. That workload will decline with Bowles begging for balance and the run game stepping up to keep defenses honest against this patchwork protection. 

The schedule sends a slew of top-tier pass rushes after the 45-year-old and features 11 games against defenses that ranked out Top 15 in EPA allowed per dropback in 2021. Brady is still the GOAT and remains among the elite passers but will come back to earth in 2022… or at least hover in the atmosphere.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers trend to know

In the three seasons under Bruce Arians, the Bucs defended the NFC shield in non-conference clashes. Tampa Bay went 10-3 SU and 7-4-1 ATS vs. AFC opposition from 2019 to 2021, including a perfect 5-0 SU and 3-2 ATS last season. 

Now under promoted head coach Todd Bowles, the 2022 draw sends the AFC North at the Buccaneers as well as a Week 4 home stand with Kansas City.

Bucs’ non-conference games

• Week 3 vs. Kansas City (-2.5, 53)
• Week 6 @ Pittsburgh (-6, 47.5)
• Week 8 vs. Baltimore (-4, 49.5)
• Week 12 @ Cleveland (-3.5, 48)
• Week 15 vs. Cincinnati (-5, 50.5)

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