The Super Bowl odds will take action for two weeks before the Kansas City Chiefs and Philadelphia Eagles kick off in New Orleans on February 9.
That’s a lot of wagering over 14 days, with markets moving and adjusting to the stacks of money flowing through the window at sportsbooks.
It’s hard not to get caught up in the Big Game hype and empty the bankroll on Super Bowl predictions before the bye week is even over. You will, however, want to pace yourself as some of these Super Bowl betting markets can be leveraged at certain times.
With that in mind, here are five Super Bowl bets best made early, rather than closer to kickoff.
Betting the Over
If you like the Over in the Big Game, get in line.
Super Bowl is the most “publicly” bet game of the entire year with sharps, squares, casual fans, and grandmas getting down on the final game of the season. And when it comes to the general football fan, they want to watch a thrilling high-scoring finale.
Sportsbooks will generally take more action on the Over each Super Bowl, behind that public push but also two quality competitors capable of finding the end zone.
If you like the Over, jump on it early. The bulk of Big Game bets will come in the week before the game and we’ll often see the total tick up closer to kickoff.
You’ll want to make sure you’re getting the Over below a key number, which is what we’re seeing with the Super Bowl LIX number. It’s hanging at 49.5 points — just short of key numbers 50 and 51.
Bet Over on star player props
You used to have to wait until the Thursday after Championship Weekend to get a taste of the odds for NFL player props. Nowadays, oddsmakers have the most popular player props on the board and take money within minutes of the Super Bowl matchup being official.
Much like the game total Over, the Over on prop totals for star players will generate plenty of interest, especially in the week before the game. You can watch those prop totals soar high above their opening numbers, quickly erasing any value they may have held.
If there are standouts you think will step it up in the Super Bowl, make sure to shop the opening player prop odds and get down on those Overs before the public has its say. Even a difference of two or three yards matters in a market as efficient as Super Bowl betting.
Underdog moneyline
If you like the Philadelphia Eagles to win Super Bowl LIX, you should probably bet that earlier than later.
Big Game betting is unlike any other NFL contest and is very much dictated by the sentiment of the casual fan. That means plenty of first-time bettors who can’t be bothered worrying about “covering the spread” and would rather just bet on a team to win the game.
In games as close as the Super Bowl, the underdog has a lot of appeal. Not only are they an elite squad but you’re getting better than 1/1 on your dollar, which recreational gamblers love.
We often see the underdog see significant support in terms of ticket count and handle come Super Sunday, especially when the spread is slim like it is for Super Bowl LIX.
Long-shot bets
Will there be a safety? Will the game go to overtime? Will there be a defensive or special teams touchdown?
If you look at the betting slips for recreational bettors before kickoff, chances are one — if not all three — of those Super Bowl “Yes/No” long-shot bets are among the action.
Those props usually carry a payout between +1000 and +300, though bookies have been slimming those odds in recent years after safeties and OT have shown up in Super Bowls.
There’s no shame in taking a flyer on these props but do it before everyone and their dog shows up and shrink those payouts. These “Yes” long shots shrivel up so much, bigger bettors will actually buy back the “No” options at a discount closer to kickoff, waiting for -1800 to drop to -1000.
Super Bowl MVP Odds
A great way to squeeze a few extra cents out of the Super Bowl is to bet on the Super Bowl MVP odds.
Instead of betting on the Kansas City Chiefs moneyline at -130, you can take Patrick Mahomes at +105 to win MVP, knowing that if the Chiefs do win a third consecutive Lombardi Trophy it’ll likely be on the arm of their star quarterback.
| Player |  |
|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes | +105 |
| Saquon Barkley | +250 |
| Jalen Hurts | +350 |
| Travis Kelce | +1600 |
| Xavier Worthy | +2500 |
| AJ Brown | +2800 |
| Kareem Hunt | +5000 |
| Chris Jones | +5000 |
| DeVonta Smith | +5000 |
| Jalen Carter | +6000 |
Odds as of 1-28.
The MVP favorites will draw money, so those prices are getting worse by the day. So, if you like Mahomes, Saquon Barkley, or Jalen Hurts to earn Most Valuable Player, bet it now.
You also always have a couple of live MVP long shots in the mix, offering a great return on the opening odds but quickly seeing that value siphoned out. Those can be star receivers or game-breaking defensive players.
Don’t think you’re the only one seeing potential in those Super Bowl MVP picks. Shop for the best return on those players early on.
