The underdog has been a profitable bet in recent Super Bowls.
The point spread pup has covered the spread in four straight Big Games and is 16-6 against the spread in the last 23 Super Bowls, with one of those championships closing as a pick’em.
When you write a weekly column titled “NFL Underdogs” and you see that ATS success for Super Bowl dogs, you feel pretty good about the Philadelphia Eagles getting points against the Kansas City Chiefs in Super Bowl LIX for your Super Bowl predictions, right?
Right?
RIGHT?!
Eh, not so much.
My first bet of Super Bowl LIX was Kansas City on the moneyline Super Bowl odds and with this spread at Chiefs -1.5, there’s a pretty good shot that the outright winner will also cover the SBLIX spread. Going back to 1985, there have been just four NFL underdogs of +1.5 lose outright by one point but cover by the hook.
So, what’s an underdog bettor to do when he likes the favorite?
Find some “underdog” alternatives in the endless Super Bowl LIX prop markets, that’s what.
Here are my three favorite plus-money NFL picks for Chiefs vs. Eagles on February 9.
Also, thanks so much for joining me each week for another season of “NFL Underdogs”. Good luck on Super Sunday and we’ll talk point spread pups again in Week 1.
Playoffs: 4-2 ATS
Season: 29-27-1 ATS
NFL Super Bowl 59 predictions and picks
- Jalen Hurts Over 0.5 interceptions (+128 at DraftKings)
- Kareem Hunt Over 1.5 receptions (+150 at Caesars)
- George Karlaftis to record a sack (+116 at FanDuel)
Chiefs vs Eagles (+1.5)
My pick: Jalen Hurts Over 0.5 interceptions
+128 at DraftKings
For the next two weeks, Kansas City Chiefs defensive guru Steve Spagnuolo will be trying to figure out a way to force the Philadelphia Eagles to do something that they don’t want to do: throw the ball.
Philadelphia is the most run-heavy playbook in the NFL, taking to the ground on almost 56% of its snaps. The Eagles ran 36, 34, and 34 times in the three postseason games and it would have likely been more if not for Jalen Hurts’ wonky knee.
Sure, Hurts is coming off a solid day in the pocket, passing for 246 yards against the Commanders in the NFC title game. But comparing Washington’s busted-ass secondary to the Chiefs’ pass defense is like choosing between swimming with dolphins or great white sharks. And I like the odds of Hurts getting bit.
At some point in Super Bowl LIX, Hurts is going to face a third-and-long. At this point, Spags will dial up an exotic blitz that makes Taiwanese street food seem as bland as a Costco hotdog deal. Hurts will feel the heat, heave an ill-advised pass into traffic, and that ball will find its way into the hands of someone wearing a red helmet.
Hurts has yet to throw a pick in the playoffs and he finished the regular season with only five interceptions. However, his passing prowess takes a nosedive when under duress and KC’s blitz-happy schemes drum up the fifth-highest pressure rate per dropback.
Hurts goes from the 10th-best QB rating at PFF when kept clean to 58th under pressure. His completion rate sinks to 44.4% in those pressure situations and he’s thrown the 12th most “danger plays” (a risky pass that could have resulted in a turnover), according to PlayerProfiler.
Player projections range from 0.4 to 0.6 interceptions from Hurts with the bulk of those models sitting at 0.5 or higher. With Over 0.5 INTs paying out as high as +128, I’ll bank on a Big Game blunder from the Eagles QB.
My pick: Kareem Hunt Over 1.5 receptions
+150 at Caesars
Kareem Hunt has emerged as the Chiefs’ go-to guy on the ground, surpassing Isiah Pacheco on the depth chart. He started getting the bulk of snaps in Week 17 and saw his busiest day in the AFC Championship Game, taking part in 58% of Kansas City’s snaps.
Hunt has primarily been a ball carrier and has only drawn one pass in each of the playoff games, catching both balls for short gains.
However, he was much more involved in the passing playbook in the regular season, even after Pacheco returned from injury in Week 13.
Hunt drew 32 targets for 23 receptions in 13 regular season showings, an average of almost 1.8 catches per contest. He recorded two or more receptions in six of those games. His player projections for Super Bowl LIX range from 1.1 to 2.0 with my number at 1.4 grabs.
Philadelphia’s defense doesn’t blitz often (fifth lowest rate) and the team owns one of the lower pressure rates (also fifth lowest per dropback), so Hunt won’t have to worry about picking up extra pass rushers.
Instead, he can be a viable pass-catching option for Patrick Mahomes on the slip screen, shovel passes, and check downs when the Eagles have KC’s first and second looks covered downfield.
Let’s not forget that Hunt was a dual-threat RB in his first two seasons in Kansas City, catching 79 passes in 27 regular season games for a collective 833 receiving yards. That includes 378 yards through the air with Mahomes under center in 2018 before he was released by the team due to domestic abuse. Hunt is just as comfortable catching the ball as he is carrying it.
My pick: George Karlaftis to record a sack
+116 at FanDuel
A concern for the Eagles heading into Super Bowl LIX is the health of the offensive line.
While there are two weeks to heal before February 9, all eyes are on the knee of tackle Landon Dickerson and the aching back of center Cam Jurgens.
Dickerson actually started at center in place of Jurgens, who was dressed as a backup, in the NFC Championship Game but left with a knee injury which forced Jurgens into action. The o-line did well run blocking but did give up two sacks on Hurts, who’s been sacked 11 times in three postseason outings.
Kansas City’s pass rush is a handful and comes at you from everywhere. Just ask Josh Allen on that crucial fourth-down snap. If Philly’s pass-pro isn’t 100%, it could be a long day for Hurts when he’s forced to drop back.
The Chiefs scored eight sacks in the Divisional Round win over Houston and got to Allen twice in the AFC title game. On the season, KC tallied just 39 sacks but collected 18 of those QB kills between Week 13 and Week 17 with the defense rounding into championship form at the right time.
A big part of that pass pressure is the play of defensive end George Karlaftis. He topped the team with eight sacks during the regular season (four in that five-game stretch), got three more against the Texans in the Divisional Round, and was the first to Allen on that game-winning stop.
He’s been a postseason presence in his three years for the Chiefs, tallying seven total sacks in nine playoff games. The Super Bowl LIX projections call for 2.5 sacks from Kansas City and Karlaftis looks like he’ll be responsible for at least one of them, forecasted for 0.7 sacks – the highest sack projection for any defensive player on the field.
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