Two underachieving teams will square off in the Windy City on Sunday as the Houston Texans and Chicago Bears meet in some Week 14 NFL betting action.
Both teams are coming off a loss last week but the Bears’ epic meltdown versus the Lions could be one that personifies their season. The Texans have won three of their last four games ATS and NFL odds saw them open as one-point road favorites, with that number creeping up to -1.5 and -2 on some books. The total sits at 45.5, which is the lowest number Houston has seen all year.
Here are our NFL free picks and predictions for Texans vs. Bears on December 13 (1:00 p.m. ET).
Houston Texans at Chicago Bears Betting Preview
Weather
Soldier Field will be tame this weekend, with winds up to 8 mph expected. Temperatures will be chilly but above freezing at 39 degrees, with no chance of precipitation. Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our NFL weather info.
Key Injuries
Texans: David Johnson RB (Out), Will Fuller V WR (Out), Brandin Cooks WR (Out), Pharaoh Brown TE (Out), Phillip Gaines CB (Out).
Bears: Buster Skrine CB (Out).
Find our latest NFL injury reports.
Betting Trend to Know
The Bears are 0-4 ATS over their last four games. Find more NFL betting trends for Texans vs. Bears.
Against the Spread (ATS) Pick
Even without their No. 1 receiver in Will Fuller V, the Houston Texans outgained the Colts by nearly a full yard per play last week. The passing game didn’t miss a beat as Deshaun Watson threw for 341 yards. Houston was saddled with a 26-20 loss, but a Watson fumble on the Indy one-yard line in the final two minutes sealed it for the Colts.
The Texans have been one of the worst rushing teams this year and will need to have success through the air to pick up a victory in Chicago. Receiver Brandin Cooks exited last week's with what appeared to be a concussion but the WR returned later in the game, painting a better picture for his week 14 availability.
The Bears have the 8th-best DVOA pass defense per Football Outsiders but have allowed a 68 percent completion rate across their last three games. Chicago is also giving up 12.3 yards per completion since Week 11, which ranks as the second-worst mark over that stretch.
Houston and Watson can exploit this Chicago defense, which gave up 34 points to a Detroit offense that was averaging just 20 points per game without WR Kenny Golladay.
Chicago’s morale must be nonexistent after blowing a 10-point, fourth-quarter lead last week in which the Lions scored twice in the final 2:18 of the game. They also have no idea who will be starting under center come Sunday—and the entire coaching staff could be hitting the unemployment line before the week is over.
PREDICTION: Houston -1.5 (-110)
Over/Under Pick
The Texans have seen an average O/U total of 51 points this year, so this week’s total of 45.5 could be a discount. Taking out the game in Cleveland that was affected by the weather, Houston's road games are averaging 59.8 total points. The Houston offense has the 8th-best yards per play mark on the road while their road defense gives up the eighth-most yards per play.
Chicago QB Mitch Trubisky had his best game of the year last week, per his QB rating, but he could be on the pine this week. Neither Trubisky nor Nick Foles move the needle for more offensive production but Chicago's 55 points scored over the last two games is the most points it has scored over a two-game stretch this season.
We think the Bears could put up 20-25 points against the Texans’ No. 25 DVOA defense but it is the Chicago defense that we are banking on getting beat up. This is a unit that may just quit on the season after last week’s sideshow.
PREDICTION: Over 45.5 (-110)
First Half Total Pick
The Houston Texans have scored 64 first-half points since Week 11 – only one team has scored more over that stretch – and they have hit the first-half Over in three straight games.
Last week against the Colts, there were 44 points scored in the first 30 minutes but just two points scored in the following 30 minutes. Only three other teams are allowing more first-half points than the Houston defense.
There were 36 first-half points scored in Chicago’s game last week and 37 the week before. We are doubling down on some offense and taking both the first-half and full-game Over.
PREDICTION: First half Over 22.5 (-110)
Texans vs Bears Betting Card
- Houston -1.5 (-110)
- Over 45.5 (-110)
- First half Over 22.5 (-110)
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