The Houston Texans won outright as an underdog in the Wild Card Round, earning the privilege to travel to Kansas City in mid-January.
Waiting for Houston in an ear-splitting Arrowhead Stadium is the defending Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs. Needless to say, things are stacked against the Texans — including the odds, which have them listed as 8-point underdogs on Saturday.
Here are my early Texans vs. Chiefs predictions and NFL picks ahead of their divisional round clash on Saturday, January 18.
Texans vs Chiefs predictions
Early spread lean
Kansas City Chiefs -8 (-110 at BetMGM)
My analysis
This number opened at Kansas City Chiefs -7.5 and we saw it climb to -8.5 before a market consensus of Chiefs -8 at most books on Monday morning.
This is a bit of a “no man’s land” regarding point spreads, with the line parked at the dead number. That gives the bookmakers more wiggle room to react to action without putting themselves in a bad spot, either quickly dropping back toward the touchdown or — more than likely — trending toward a 10-point spread.
Houston and Kansas City played recently, with the Chiefs taking a 27-19 victory as 3.5-point home chalk in Week 16. That game really served as the start of the postseason push for the Chiefs, who were somewhat sleepwalking through the season with focus solely on saving themselves for the playoffs.
Kansas City’s offense got whatever they wanted on the ground and through the air while the defense made the difference with two interceptions on Houston Texans QB C.J. Stroud. Those mistakes and a 1-for-3 day inside the red zone doomed the Texans.
This time around, the Texans are without WR2 Tank Dell and face a well-rested and prepared Kansas City squad that has fully turned the switch to postseason mode. That includes the defense, which has ranked Top 5 in the last third of the schedule — just in time for another Super Bowl run.
I don’t see any reason why I would back the Texans at this current spread and I would likely need +10 or more to think twice about it. I’m leaning toward Kansas City -8 now, knowing this will close much higher come the weekend.
Early Over/Under lean
Under 42 (-110 at BetMGM)
My analysis
This total opened at 42.5 points and slimmed as low as 41.5 O/U on Monday morning. This number is trending toward the key stop of 41 points — the most common collective score in NFL games.
Houston’s offense has been a mess all season and entered the playoffs as the lowest-rated attack in many advanced metrics. The Texans didn’t exactly disprove that in the win over the Los Angeles Chargers in the Wild Card Round, either.
Houston’s 32-point output is a bit fudged due to four interceptions from the Bolts, one of which was returned for a defensive touchdown. The Chiefs, who finished the season with the fourth fewest turnovers, won’t gift-wrap any extra possessions this Saturday.
The Texans' defense will have its hands full slowing down Patrick Mahomes and the laundry list of weapons on the KC depth chart. That’s what we saw in that Week 16 meeting, with Kansas City rushing for 124 yards on top of 251 yards passing.
The Chiefs dominated the football for almost 34 minutes of possession in that win and will slow things down with a run-heavy playbook in the second half, should they hold a comfortable lead in the final 30 minutes.
Adding to that is the chilly climate in Kansas City, with temperatures forecasted to “feel like” 16 degrees for the start of this 4:30 p.m. ET kickoff and cooling to single digits in the second half. Wind gusts of 25 mph will also help make Houston feel far from the climate-control confines of NRG Stadium.
Stroud isn’t one for winter weather or the elements at all. In his short pro career, the Texans quarterback sees his passing prowess nosedive in outdoor games. He’s 5-6 SU with a passer rating of 83.8 and a completion clip short of 59%, averaging only 6.6 yards per attempt in open-air venues.
I’d lean Under at 42 points, knowing books will quickly move to the key number of 41 points if Under play shows up.
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Chiefs vs Texans live odds
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