The Kansas City Chiefs are set to take the next step in their pursuit of a third consecutive Super Bowl title, and the journey begins with a home date against the Houston Texans at Arrowhead Stadium on Saturday, January 18.
Houston is a huge road underdog that will look to attack through the air, and I’m also expecting Kansas City to lean on its ground game. Here are my top NFL picks for this upcoming AFC Divisional Round clash.
Texans vs Chiefs props
Mahomes Under 37.5 passing attempts (-125 at BetMGM)
Stroud Over 20.5 passing completions (-130 at BetMGM)- Mixon Over 16.5 receiving yards (-115 at BetMGM)
Read full analysis of each pick.
Texans vs Chiefs props
Prop bet #1: Patrick Mahomes Under 37.5 passing attempts
The weather forecast at Arrowhead Stadium is calling for near-freezing temperatures and sustained winds with potentially high gusts. With the Kansas City Chiefs pegged as a touchdown-plus home favorite against the Houston Texans, the defending champs should lean on the rushing attack early and often.
Although Patrick Mahomes has attempted 38 or more passes in nine of 16 regular-season contests, I expect the Chiefs quarterback to be more efficient and effective with the added rest and preparation time following the Wild Card bye.
The Texans have also been excellent against the pass throughout the regular season. Houston allowed the sixth-lowest yards per pass attempt (6.8), third-lowest net yards per pass attempt (5.7), and second-lowest dropback success rate (41.6%).
Prop bet #2: C.J. Stroud Over 20.5 passing completions
The Chiefs play a lot of Cover 4 on early downs with four deep zone defenders. This should enable Texans quarterback C.J. Stroud to connect with his pass-catchers underneath, and Kansas City will focus on No. 1 wide receiver Nico Collins and leave softer coverage elsewhere.
Stroud and the Texans are a sizable road underdog, and they should continue to struggle against a stout KC rush defense. As a result, I’m expecting Houston offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik to lean on Stroud and the passing attack to move the football.
Kansas City is also solid against the pass, but the Chiefs still allowed the 11th-most pass completions during the regular season. Additionally, Stroud completed 22 passes last week against the Chargers, including attempting only two passes in the fourth quarter.
Prop bet #3: Joe Mixon Over 16.5 receiving yards
This is the lowest receiving yards total since Week 8 (15.5) for Houston running back Joe Mixon, and the Texans project to land in a pass-happy game script Saturday afternoon. Mixon averaged 2.6 receptions for 22.1 yards per game during the regular season, and he cleared this total in nine of 14 starts.
Don't expect the veteran RB to cede much work to backfield mates Dameon Pierce and Dare Ogunbowale in the win-or-go-home showdown against Kansas City. After all, Mixon continues to look spry after finishing the regular season boasting his highest yards per reception (8.7) and yards after the catch per reception (10.1) since his rookie season in 2017.
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