Saturday night of Week 18 of the NFL regular season brings us a high-stakes game, as the Houston Texans are heading to Lucas Oil Stadium to take on the Indianapolis Colts. The winner will clinch at least a Wild Card berth and still have a chance at the AFC South division title.
NFL odds have tabbed the Texans as 1.5-point road favorites, with a total of 47.5. Let’s dig into tonight's playoff-style matchup as I provide my free NFL picks for Texans vs. Colts on January 6.
You can also check out our Texans vs. Colts prop picks and C.J. Stroud odds and props spotlight for more analysis on this AFC South showdown.
Texans vs Colts odds
Texans vs Colts predictions
When these two AFC South rivals met all the way back in Week 2 in Houston, the Colts won the battle of rookie quarterbacks after jumping out to a 31-10 lead before holding on to a 31-20 final score. Despite the result, Texans quarterback CJ Stroud threw for 384 yards and two touchdowns with no picks, and you started to see his potential for this magical season.
Meanwhile, the Colts are now without their rookie QB Anthony Richardson, but he did miss most of that game after getting injured in the second quarter. Gardner Minshew went 19 of 23 passing for 171 yards and a touchdown in relief duty. It was 14-7 when Richardson went out, so Minshew led most of the scoring drives.
The Colts pass defense has been solid for many games this season but has struggled each of the last two weeks against much worse passing offenses. The Raiders threw for 286 yards and Davante Adams went off for 126 yards on 13 catches. The loss of Julian Blackmon at safety was deeply felt in that game.
Meanwhile, Stroud had no issues shaking off the rust in his first game back from injury last week. He was 24 of 32 passing for 213 yards and a touchdown in a 26-3 win over the Tennessee Titans. His favorite target, Nico Collins, was also excellent in their first game together since early December, as he finished with 80 yards on four catches.
I would not be surprised to see a similar performance from Stroud and Collins to that of O’Connell and Adams from last week. In games that Stroud and Collins both played the entirety of this season, Collins averaged 7.8 targets, 5.5 receptions, and 89.3 receiving yards. Collins had seven catches on nine targets for 146 yards and a touchdown in the Week 2 game against Indianapolis.
Regardless of how this game plays out, I believe that Stroud will be looking for Nico early and often. He is also without one of his other top receiving options in Noah Brown, and Robert Woods may also be out with no practices this week. Only more reason to love the Nico Collins odds on his receptions total as my best bet.
My best bet: Nico Collins Over 5.5 receptions (+100 at BetMGM)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.
Texans vs Colts same-game parlay
Nico Collins Over 5.5 receptions
Jonathan Taylor Over 70.5 rushing yards
Colts +3.5
We can parlay in some other props with our best bet to hit some nice odds.
The Texans have a good run defense — third-best in the NFL — but Jonathan Taylor loves playing against Houston. In his six career games against the Texans, he's averaged 124.6 yards per game on the ground and 5.9 yards per carry. Zack Moss ran for 88 yards in the Week 2 win without Taylor. I believe he can and will surpass his number of 70.5 in this game.
Finally, we will add the Colts to cover an alternate spread. This game is a true toss-up, but the Colts have dominated this series. Indy is 7-2-1 straight-up and 7-3 against the spread in the last 10 meetings. With a strong run game and Minshew’s previous success against the Texans earlier this year, I believe the Colts will do no worse than a 3-point loss.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Texans vs Colts spread and Over/Under analysis
The Colts started this week as favorites, but the money has moved the line towards Houston and now the Colts will be home underdogs. It has been a bit of a mixed bag for them in those situations this year. They lost to the Jaguars and Saints by double-digits but went 1-2 straight up and 2-1 against the spread in the other three games — all being one-possession tilts.
I trust in coach Shane Steichen to have a great gameplan for the Colts and be ready to take down the rookie quarterback in a must-win game. However, they will still need to score enough to handle the big plays that Houston will put up and that will ultimately determine if the Colts can win this game.
The total is about where it should be, but I would still lean towards the Over. At least one team has scored 30 points in four of the past five matchups between these two. The Colts rank 27th in scoring defense and they have scored at least 21 points in every single home game this season.
Texans vs Colts betting trend to know
The Indianapolis Colts have hit the Game Total Over in 15 of their last 20 games. Find more NFL betting trends for Texans vs. Colts.
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Texans vs Colts game info
| Location: | Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis, IN |
| Date: | Saturday, January 7, 2024 |
| Kickoff: | 8:15 p.m. ET |
| TV: | NFL Network |
| Opening odds: | Colts -1, O/U 47 |
Texans vs Colts latest injuries
Texans vs Colts weather
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