A wild week is about to get wilder for the Tennessee Titans, who were forced to play Tuesday night after a COVID-19 outbreak ripped through the organization the past two weeks and shuffled its schedule.
Tennessee didn’t show a fleck of rust in beating the Buffalo Bills 42-16, and are now a 3-point NFL betting favorite hosting the rival Houston Texans in Week 6. Houston, on the other hand, is 1-0 following the firing of head coach Bill O’Brien earlier this month.
These are our NFL free picks and predictions for Texans vs. Titans on October 18.
Houston Texans vs Tennessee Titans betting preview
Weather
The forecast is calling for rain early in the day clearing before this 1 p.m. ET kickoff and leaving cloudy skies, temperatures in the low 60s and winds blowing south up to 10 mph in Nashville. Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our NFL weather info.
Key Injuries
Texans: Kahale Warring TE (Out), Jordan Akins TE (Out), Benardrick McKinney LB (Out).
Titans: Darrynton Evans RB (Out), Corey Davis WR (Out).
Find our latest NFL injury reports.
Betting Trend to Know
Home team is 6-2 ATS in the last 8 meetings between the Texans and Titans. Find more NFL betting trends for Texans vs. Titans.
Against the spread (ATS) pick
It’s a short turnaround for Tennessee but this week will look much different than the prep for Week 5, as the team will actually be able to practice (pending no more positive tests).
The Titans proved their place in the AFC pecking order with Tuesday’s victory and while the Bills looked flat in what was a weird situation considering the coronavirus scare, both the offense and defense came away with feathers in their caps.
The Titans were able to generate 42 points versus Buffalo without top receivers Corey Davis and Adam Humphries. As well, the team was outgained in offensive yardage by the Bills, 370 to 334.
But Tennessee made the most of its opportunities, created in large part by two interceptions, going 6 for 6 on touchdowns in the red zone. On the season, the Titans are finding pay dirt on more than 82 percent of their red-zone tries and aren’t leaving many points on the table.
Houston has been very vanilla defensively. The Texans are giving up 28 points per game and went four contests without generating a single turnover. In fact, Houston had four sacks and two fumble recoveries in last week’s win over Jacksonville, but hadn’t shown any teeth in the previous four matchups.
Any turnovers could provide some much-needed extra touches for the floundering Houston offense, but the Titans are the most surehanded team in the NFL, with only one giveaway (an interception in Week 3) on the season.
Houston is coming off its best offensive effort of 2020 - against Jacksonville (32nd in defensive DVOA at Football Outsiders) – and even that game was very much up in the air until midway through the fourth quarter.
PREDICTION: Tennessee -3 (-110)
Over/Under pick
Tennessee is a crafty team with nine takeaways on the year (six interceptions) and now faces Houston QB Deshaun Watson, who’s struggling with turnovers (five INTs) through the first five games.
The Titans stop unit did a great job limiting one of the most explosive offensive attacks in the NFL Tuesday, sucking Bills QB Josh Allen into two gutting interceptions that seemed to compound themselves over the course of the game.
The Texans offense just hasn’t been the same since O’Brien delivered the kiss of death in the offseason, dealing standout WR DeAndre Hopkins to Arizona for RB David Johnson, who has returned mixed results in his limited action. Houston sits 18th in offensive DVOA (20th in running) and has run into some sound defensive teams in the opening slate of games.
Houston has also shown a decline in production when playing on the road in a short sample size, posting 82 fewer yards per game and scoring 20 and 21 points in road losses at Kansas City and Pittsburgh.
This total is a tall one, opening at 55 points and dropping to 53 as of Wednesday afternoon. I don’t see Tennessee hanging another 40-plus game on the board on a short week, and there are some questions to the availability of Davis and Humphries pending their COVID-19 tests, which could shorten this attack.
PREDICTION: Under 53 (-110)
Player prop pick
Derrick Henry had only 19 carries in Week 5, rushing for 57 yards including one nasty stiff arm on Bills corner Josh Norman that should have been worth bonus fantasy points.
Given that light load (Henry had 31, 25, and 26 carries the three games prior) and the extra week of rest heading into Tuesday’s game, there should be plenty of tread on the tire for this Sunday’s homestand. Houston ranks 31st in average rushing yards against (160.4) and has been bullied for 4.7 yards per carry by opposing runners.
Henry rumbled for 211 yards on 32 carries and three touchdowns the last time these rivals met. And while I’m not calling for a reprise of that performance, bettors should feel secure betting his Over on rushing attempts as the Titans try to survive this short week on the back of their star runner.
PREDICTION: Derrick Henry Over 23.5 rushing attempts (-120)
Texans vs Titans betting card
- Tennessee -3 (-110)
- Under 53 (-110)
- Derrick Henry Over 23.5 rushing attempts (-120)
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