Welcome to our free NFL betting picks and predictions for the Tennessee Titans vs. Buffalo Bills, the first of two Monday Night Football games tonight.
The Bills proved they deserve to be atop the Super Bowl odds board by making a huge statement in the 2022 season opener last Thursday.
Buffalo blasted the reigning champion L.A. Rams on the road in Week 1 and now sets its sights on last year’s top seed in the AFC — the Titans — in Week 2.
The Bills have had a mini bye to prep for their home opener, which is one of the reasons why this line is rising toward the host team. Tennessee’s Week 1 effort against the N.Y. Giants isn’t helping the case for the visitor, as the Titans blew a 13-0 second-half advantage and lost 21-20 as 5.5-point home chalk.
In addition to analyzing the Over/Under total, our best bet is a prop focusing on a quarterback who may struggle to get things going in the air tonight.
Titans vs Bills best odds
Titans vs Bills picks and predictions
The last time these franchises faced off, the Titans won a 34-31 shootout at home last October. And even though Tennessee outgunned the mighty Bills in that game, quarterback Ryan Tannehill didn’t have a great showing.
Tannehill finished just 18-for-29 for 216 yards, no touchdowns, and one interception (he did run for a TD). It was Tennessee’s rushing attack that anchored that victory, with RB Derrick Henry rumbling for 143 yards and three scores — one of which was a 76-yard TD run.
Looking at this rematch in 2022, not only is Tennessee on the road in Week 2, but Tannehill’s receiving corps is not what it was the last time these foes butted heads. A.J. Brown and Julio Jones are gone, with that pair combining for 150 yards on 10 receptions against the Bills.
Tannehill threw for 266 yards in the loss to New York in Week 1, connecting on 20 of 33 attempts for two touchdowns against an aggressive Giants defense bringing plenty of blitz under new defensive coordinator Wink Martindale. The G-Men dialed up blitz on almost 49% of dropbacks — third highest in Week 1 — and the Titans QB posted 7.3 yards per attempt and completed 60% of throws for 109 yards in those situations.
Tannehill is one of the better QBs in the league when facing extra rushers but does struggle when foes are able to get pressure with just the front four. Last season, his yards per attempt dropped to 5.6 under pressure vs. 7.8 when blitzed — completing only 53.7% of his throws — according to PFF. The Bills can exploit just that on Monday night.
Buffalo picked up seven sacks and seven QB knockdowns in the win over the Rams, posting a pressure rate of 30.6% without needing extra pass rushes. Defensive coordinator Leslie Frazier went blitz only once on 49 dropbacks from L.A. and the Bills finished No. 10 in pass rush win rate at ESPN. Buffalo’s EPA allowed per dropback was the second lowest in the land (-0.308) against a far greater air attack.
Tennessee’s offensive line was a big concern entering the season, coming off a 2021 campaign in which the pass protection finished 26th in adjusted sacks rate at Football Outsiders. And while that group held up better than expected against the Giants in Week 1, the Bills are a major step up in defensive competition, and I’m betting on a down day from Tannehill in terms of passing yardage.
On top of the Bills’ pressure and versatile linebackers able to plug up passing lanes and snuff out YAC, Tennessee head coach Mike Vrabel wasn’t thrilled with the play calling from offensive coordinator Todd Downing in Week 1.
Downing snubbed his star rusher Henry on a number of key possessions in the second half and gave the RB just 21 carries, which is far from his workload last year before suffering a mid-season foot injury and returning for the playoffs.
With Tannehill feeling the heat from the Buffalo defense, expect this playbook to skew run after handing off on only 43% of snaps in Week 1 — a notable decline from a playbook that ran 48.78% time in 2021.
My best bet: Ryan Tannehill Under 216.5 passing yards
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Titans vs Bills betting preview
Jump to:
•Spread analysis •Over/Under analysis •Game info •Injuries •Weather •Trend to know
Spread analysis
The look-ahead line set for this monster AFC matchup was at Buffalo -7.5 back the summer. After the Week 1 results, books re-opened Buffalo as low as -9, and that quickly ran to as high as -10.5 at some sportsbooks.
The Bills opening night performance against the Rams came on the heels of a summer of love for Bills Mafia, which drew a lot of action on all its futures markets. Buyback on the Titans has since trimmed that spread to as low as Buffalo -9.5 with most shops dealing -10.
Covers Consensus shows 61% of picks on the home side, while sportsbooks like WynnBet are reporting 60% of ticket count on the Bills but big bets have grabbed the Titans as underdogs and that has more than 79% of the handle on Tennessee.
Over/Under analysis
This Over/Under total was at 51 points on the offseason lookahead lines and reopened at 50 points last Sunday night.
Early action has come in on the Under and run this number as low as 48 points at many operators, with Buffalo handling the Rams offense with ease in Week 1 and the Titans' once-mighty attack getting stymied by the Giants' defense last Sunday.
Covers Consensus shows 61% of picks on the Over while WynnBet books are reporting 55% of bets on the Over but an incredible 97% of the early money jumping on the Under, which has forced books to chop this total down.
Titans vs Bills game info
• Location: Highman Stadium, Orchard Park, NY
• Date: Monday, September 19, 2022
• Kickoff: 7:15 p.m. ET
• TV: ESPN
Titans vs Bills key injuries
Titans vs Bills weather
Monitor gametime conditions with our live NFL weather info and learn how weather impacts NFL betting.
Titans vs Bills betting trend to know
The Bills are 12-4 SU and 10-5-1 ATS in the opening three games of the season the past five years (since Sean McDermott took the head coach job). Find more NFL betting trends for Titans vs. Bills.
