The Miami Dolphins are in a jam heading into their Monday Night Football matchup with the Tennessee Titans in Week 4.
Miami was already down star quarterback Tua Tagovailoa (IR with concussion) and could be missing QB2 Skylar Thompson after he left Sunday’s loss to Seattle with a painful rib injury.
That situation flips this spread from Dolphins -1.5 to +1.5 and with it my Titans vs Dolphins predictions.
I dissect that opener and line movement as well as give my early NFL picks and insights for Monday, September 30.
Titans vs Dolphins predictions
Early spread lean
Titans -1.5 (+100 at FanDuel)
My analysis
The Miami Dolphins’ quarterback situation is a bad one, but just how bad?
Look-ahead lines had Miami as a 1.5-point home favorite with Skylar Thompson as the quarterback. But with his Week 4 status up in the air, Miami will either look to third-stringer Tim Boyle or recently signed Tyler Huntley, who was the backup in Baltimore for the past few seasons.
Given Thompson’s poor level of play, the dip from him to Boyle or Huntley may not be worth the 3-point move to the spread. But what could have more impact are the injuries stacking up for the Fins ahead of Week 4 — more specifically on the offensive line.
Standout tackle Terron Armstead left Week 3 with a concussion and guard Isaiah Wynn is already sidelined with a quad injury, leaving this offensive line even weaker entering Week 4. Miami was already ranking near the bottom of the league in pass block win rate at ESPN and allowed six sacks to the Seahawks and 11 total so far in 2024.
The Tennessee Titans defense has shown a big improvement under new defensive coordinator Dennard Wilson, entering Week 4 ranked 11th in EPA allowed per play. The Titans are playing a more aggressive style and giving up just 4.7 yards per play – tied for sixth fewest in the league.
Miami's defense is also a MASH unit, with numerous starters carrying an injury designation this week. Luckily for the Dolphins, they get an extra day of rest. This stop unit has been toothless through three weeks, ranking near the bottom in pressure rate and slumping to 30th in EPA allowed per dropback.
Early Over/Under lean
Under 36.5 (-105 at FanDuel)
My analysis
With questions at QB and a lack of pass protection, you can be sure to see a lot of action from Miami’s running backs in Week 4.
Raheem Mostert missed Week 3 but the longer Week 4 break should help him back on the field, teaming with De'Von Achane. Add in all of McDaniel’s pre-snap motion, and the Fins will be a slow-moving offense that chews up the clock before each play.
The Titans offense is also troublesome. The depth chart is bursting with potential playmakers added this offseason. But second-year QB Will Levis has derailed drives with his carelessness and inability to handle pressure, rated as among the worst QBs when feeling the heat.
Neither playbook pushes tempo or runs much hurry-up, ranked 28th and 29th in pace. Mix in some potential bad weather and energy-sapping humidity in South Florida – “feels like” temperature at 102 degrees, humidity at 80%, 60% thunderstorms – and points seem like a premium on Monday night.
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Titans vs Dolphins live odds
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