Sunday Night Football will pit two non-conference divisional leaders against each other as the 10-4 Tennessee Titans travel to the frozen tundra of Lambeau Field to take on Aaron Rodgers and the 11-3 Green Bay Packers in primetime.
Both clubs come into this key Week 16 matchup with identical 4-1 SU records over their last five, but the Titans have more to lose as the Indianapolis Colts are pushing for the division lead with a matching 10-4 record.
NFL odds opened Green Bay as a four-point favorite, but that number has fallen to -3 (trending to -3.5) at some books. The 56-point total is the highest on the board this weekend.
Here are our NFL free picks and predictions for Titans vs Packers for Sunday, December 27 (8:20 p.m. ET).
Tennessee Titans at Green Bay Packers Betting Preview
Weather
It’s going to be a chilly day on the tundra, with temperatures in the high-20s at kickoff. A medium wind (14 mph) and a 28 percent chance of precipitation are also expected. Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our NFL weather info.
Key Injuries
Titans: Kenny Vaccaro S (Questionable), Breon Borders CB (Out), A.J. Brown WR (Questionable), Kristian Fulton CB (Questionable), Dennis Kelly T (Questionable), Chris Milton CB (Out), Jonnu Smith TE (Questionable), Geoff Swaim TE (Questionable).
Packers: Corey Linsley C (Questionable), Jamaal Williams RB (Questionable), Krys Barnes LB (Questionable), Will Redmond S (Questionable), Simon Stepaniak G (Questionable), Jacce Sternberger TE (Questionable).
Find our latest NFL injury reports.
Betting Trend to Know
The Packers are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games following an ATS loss. Find more NFL betting trends for Titans vs. Packers.
Against the Spread (ATS) Pick
The Green Bay offense looked human in the second half of last week’s game against the Panthers. After scoring three TDs in the first 30 minutes, Aaron Rodgers and the offense mustered just a single field goal and three first downs in the second half. Things should get back to normal Sunday night for Green Bay’s high-scoring offense, as the Titans, despite their record, own the No. 28 DVOA defense, per Football Outsiders.
Only two teams have a worse passing defense than the Titans, who have allowed over 900 passing yards over their last three games. A huge reason for teams’ success against the Titans is their nonexistent pass rush. Tennessee is in the bottom of the league in sacks generated and second-last in pressure rate. Rodgers could have all day to pick apart this defense.
However, the Titans have the advantage in the run game with Derrick Henry, especially against the Packers’ No. 23 rush defense.
If Green Bay can keep Henry from taking over the game and force the Titans to pass more, then the Packers will be playing to their strength on the defensive side of the ball.
Defensive backs Jaire Alexander and Adrian Amos rank inside the Top 6 at their position per PFF, and free safety Darnell Savage is also a positively-graded DB. The Packers also have a good-to-great pass rush that has the highest sack conversion rate in the league.
Points are expected on both sides of the ball, but with the line likely moving off the three, we are hitting the -3 and doubt we would take the -3.5 in a game that is projected to go back and forth. The Packers are just 2-4 ATS in their last six, but 5-2 ATS in games with lines less than -7.
PREDICTION: Green Bay -3 (-115)
Over/Under Pick
As we mentioned above, points should get racked up on SNF, as both teams sport Top-three scoring offenses. Only three teams in the league are averaging over 30 points a game and Sunday’s match will feature two of them.
The Titans are tied for the league’s best Over record at 10-3-1 and are a perfect 4-0 O/U as an underdog. Tennessee has cashed the Over in five of its last six games as those matches have averaged 61 total points. A potent offense, a lack of a pass rush and a bottom-five pass defense are the perfect recipe for a great Over team.
Neither team runs a fast tempo offense as both teams sit outside the Top 14 in plays per game. But what they lack in quantity, they make up for it in quality. Tennessee and Green Bay both rank second in yards per play at 6.2, while their defenses rank in the bottom half in yards per play allowed.
We haven’t seen a total of 56 or more since Week 12, as this total has already been bet up after opening at 55.5 and is trending even higher. Getting this total at 56 instead of 56.5 is a big deal as two TDs per quarter is exactly 56 points.
PREDICTION: Over 56 (-110)
First Half Total Pick
As Green Bay showed last week, they tend to be more productive offensively in the first half. At 18.5 points per first half, the Packers pace the league in first-half scoring and are 9-4-1 O/U on first-half totals this season.
The Titans aren’t far off that mark either with their 9-5-0 O/U first-half record. It’s easy to see how Henry can wear down defenses later in games as the Titans lean on their bell-cow back in the second half, extending drives and eating the clock.
We like the first-half Over slightly more than the full game for a couple of reasons: it gets us to bed earlier, both offenses have shown a propensity for early scoring, and 56 is a big number by NFL standards.
Asking for more than two TDs per quarter four times is a roller coaster, with one punt from mid-field possibly harpooning the full-game Over. At 27.5, we’re looking for four TDs for a win.
PREDICTION: First half Over 27.5 (-110)
Titans vs Packers Betting Card
- Green Bay -3 (-115)
- Over 56 (-110)
- First half Over 27.5 (-110)
Did you know that if you parlayed this week’s NFL Titans vs. Packers picks, you could win $58.14 on a $10 bet?
Use our NFL parlay calculator to create your own parlays and see their potential payouts.
Where Can I Bet on the NFL?
You can bet on NFL odds at every online and casino sportsbooks, including NFL moneylines, spreads, Over/Under totals and a ton of NFL prop odds. Head over to our best-suggested sportsbooks for the top spots to bet on NFL odds in your area.
