Titans vs Saints Week 1 Picks and Predictions: Methodical Paces Keep This Game Under

There is a lot of competition in both South divisions this year, making Week 1’s matchup between the visiting Tennessee Titans and New Orleans Saints a big one on Sunday. NOLA has hit -3 on the spread after opening as high as -4, while the Under is taking some money heading into the weekend — thus shifting the NFL odds.

With two slow offenses/quarterbacks combined with elite defenses that are healthy in the secondary, bettors should be cheering for punts in New Orleans and get on the Under before it moves anymore.

Here are my free NFL picks for the Titans vs. Saintson Sunday, September 10

Titans vs Saints odds

Titans vs Saints predictions

Both clubs finished in the Bottom 10 in pace of play last year, and each starting quarterback was even slower. Derek Carr ranked 22nd in pace of play with Vegas a season ago, while Ryan Tannehill was one of the slowest QBs in seconds per play in ‘22, ranking 29th. 

The Tennessee Titans also led the league in three-and-outs, and this offense could be in tough with Derrick Henry trending downwards in his age-29 season while the team absorbs Tim Kelly’s new offense. It’s supposed to be faster, but I’m not jumping to that conclusion in Week 1 vs. a very good New Orleans Saints defense. 

The Saints were a Top 10 unit defensively last year and will be stronger in the secondary come Sunday, with Marshon Lattimore healthy after missing 10 games in 2022. He's been limited at practice this week but all signs point to him dressing and likely taking on DeAndre Hopkins.

The same is true with the Titans, who will have Kristian Fulton back in the secondary after missing a good chunk of last season. His absence was a big reason this unit allowed the most passing yards per game a year ago

Considering they have the No. 1 rush defense and Jeffery Simmons is one of the best at his position, if this secondary makes improvements in 2023, the Titans could be a force on defense.

Heading into Sunday, Tennessee's defense that will face one of the least efficient QBs in Carr, who last year finished 27th in red-zone completion percentage, 28th in deep-ball completion percentage, 30th in true completion percentage, and 31st in clean pocket completion percentage. It’s a new team and a new offense for him and I’m not so sure how Michael Thomas can step in and be a factor.

One thing the Titans were incredible at last year was keeping things quiet in the fourth quarter on both sides of the ball. On the year, the Titans went 16 and 1 to the Under on their 4Q totals. 

All of this is leading me to a strong Under play at 41.5. It’s been taking some money and some places have hit the flat 41, but as of Thursday, there were plenty of 41.5s. I’d play this at 41, but likely off at 40.5 as 41 is the most frequent combined game total in the NFL since 2015 at 3.82%.  

My best bet: Under 41.5 (-110 at FanDuel)

Titans vs Saints same-game parlay

Under 41.5

Titans ML

Tannehill Over 19.5 competions

+700 at bet365

Both teams are going to find it difficult to run the ball, and although I don't see that translating into big offensive gains in the air, it could lead to plenty of small gains and receptions. Tannehill will be the more comfortable field general in this game and has a better WR group than a year ago. THE BLITZ is projecting 22.04 completions. 

Would you be surprised to see Tennessee take down Derek Carr in his first game with his new team? 

The true odds for this SGP are +670 and even with the negative correlation with the Oer completions and Under game total, I think is still a great price. 

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Titans vs Saints spread and Over/Under analysis

Carr will begin his New Orleans career as a 3-point home favorite after opening as high as -4. A lot is expected of the Saints this year in an open division where they are the betting favorite to win at +110. 

It’s hard not to trust the money coming in on the Titans here as Carr has a lot of work to do to get up to speed on a new offense and system. It’s been a while since bettors have seen a veteran QB jump ship only to have immediate success in his new surroundings.

Tannehill is back under center for the Titans. He's been an efficient signal caller while continuing to pile wins in Tennessee. Tannehill is 36-19 SU as a starter with the Titans and has more weapons this year with the addition of Hopkins and Treylon Burks more experienced. 

It is still a slow-tempo offense that could be quicker under new OC Tim Kelly (2022’s passing coordinator), but I’m not expecting a big transformation with Mike Vrabel’s pace of play. 

The Titans' defense could be legit in 2023. They were awful in the secondary last season but also dealt with injuries and look healthier entering Week 1. Kristian Fulton is back after missing six games last year and held opposing QBs to a sub-75 QB rating when targeted. The same can be said for safety Kevin Byard.  

Add in Sean Murphy-Bunting at corner and this secondary will complement the league’s No. 1 rush defense from a year ago.

I wouldn’t trust Carr as a 3-or-more-point favorite in his first game vs. what could be an elite defense and bettors also agree. The only action I have on this side is with the Titans at +3.5 in my pick pool. 

This number is starting to trend off the 3.0 to 2.5 so if you like the Titans, it’s likely a bet-now scenario.

Titans vs Saints betting trend to know

Ryan Tannehill is 36-19 SU as a starter with the Titans. Find more NFL betting trends for Titans vs. Saints.

Titans vs Saints game info

Titans vs Saints latest injuries

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