With Kenny Pickett's status for Thursday Night Football on the wrong side of questionable and Will Levis having some competency down the field, the Pittsburgh Steelers' Week 9 odds have moved from -4.5 to -2.5 as we count down to this evening's kickoff with the visiting Tennessee Titans.
I believe Pittsburgh's defense is being overvalued, coming into this game very thin in the secondary. With the TNF odds live, can Will Levis and this offense put up a repeat performance in prime time and top Tennessee's team total in the process?
I break down the NFL odds in my latest free NFL picks for Titans vs. Steelers on November 2.
Titans vs Steelers odds
Titans vs Steelers predictions
The Titans closed with a team total of 16.5 last week which included the uncertainty of Will Levis and his QB debut. The rookie signal-caller threw for four touchdowns vs. a very good Atlanta defense and will have an even better opportunity this week vs. a Pittsburgh team that can be beaten with the pass.
The Steelers played a rain-soaked game at home last week vs. the Jaguars and gave up nearly 300 passing yards and 7.7 yards per pass attempt. They also lost safety Minkah Fitzpatrick and starting corner Levi Wallace is also questionable after missing Week 8.
On the season, only one other team allows more yards per game to opposing WRs than Pittsburgh and their 7.1 yards allowed per pass is the same mark as the Bears. They might be a Top-10 in 10 EPA/play but their success rate is league average and ranks 22nd since Week 3.
With Pittsburgh's offense not getting any better with Mitch Trubisky under center, Tennessee might not need to sustain long drives to put points on the board. But even if they do, Will Levis and DeAndre Hopkins showed great chemistry on the long ball and no other QB in Week 8 had a higher average intended air yards per pass than the rookie.
With Tannehill gone and Levis and this offense not getting an upgrade from the books on their team total, it’s an Over at 16.5 for me one week after taking the team total Under. Levis showed some skill with the deep ball and this Pittsburgh secondary is injured and generous. There are a lot of outs with this short total including defensive points vs. Trubisky as well as garbage time.
The more outs, the better.
My best bet: Titans team total Over 16.5 points (-118 at FanDuel)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Covers may receive advertising commissions for visits to a sportsbook or betting site.
Titans vs Steelers same-game parlay
Hopkins Over 54.5 receiving yards
Titans team total Over 16.5
Okonkwo Over 25.5 receiving yards
No-sweat bet available
Hopkins accounted for 54% of the team's receiving yards with Levis under center and the pair looked locked in. I love Hopkins' Overs up 59.5 and also wouldn't mind hitting his alt Overs. Without Fitzpatrick and possibly Wallace, this easy Pittsburgh secondary could be even easier on Thursday night.
Chigoziem Okonkwo tied Hopkins for the team-lead in targets (6) and receptions (4) last week and is the clear pass-catching TE that's a good safety valve for Levis.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
FanDuel Thursday Night Football bonuses
Odds Boost
Levis 1+ pass TD, Henry 60+ rush yards
-145, BOOSTED to +120!
Profit Boost
Get a 30% profit boost for one TNF live bet!
-118 boosts to +110, giving you $25.42 extra on a $100 bet!
SGP Promo
One no-sweat TNF same-game parlay!
Get your wager back (in bonus bets) if your Titans/Steelers SGP loses!
Sign Up Offer
Create a new account, get $200 in bonus bets after your first bet of $5 or more!
Eligible USA locations only. Also, see our full list of best sportsbook promotions for 2023.
21+. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER
Titans vs Steelers spread and Over/Under analysis
The Steelers were -4.5 on the look-ahead but reopened on the other side of 3 at -2.5. A lot of that has to do with Kenny Pickett’s rib injury that is looking to keep him out of Week 9, meaning Mitch Trubisky (15-for-27, 128 yards, TD, and two INTs) will likely be under center. The Steelers also lost Fitzpatrick in the secondary as the veteran has been ruled out this week.
Levis’ four-TD day is also likely giving bettors some confidence in the Titans. The market was very bearish on the Titans last, myself included, but Tennessee put up 28 points vs. a very good Atlanta defense. They entered that game with a team total of 16.5.
Pittsburgh's defense seems a little overrated in my opinion. It currently ranks seventh in EPA/play but 15th in success rank, which I think is a more accurate representation, as defense statistics can be noisy. Basically, having a great EPA/play means you keep the big plays at bay but having a poor success rate means your defense is struggling more on each down.
The loss of Fitzpatrick is big as well, as the veteran ranked as the No.3 safety in football a season ago, per Pro Football Focus. This was already a secondary giving up big yards to opposing WRs and its 7.1 yards allowed per pass is the same mark as the Bears.
As of Tuesday afternoon, there are still some expensive Tennessee +3s but if Trubisky is the starter and the Titans don’t sell anyone ahead of the trade deadline, this number should close at Pittsburgh -2.5.
The total sat at 36.5 on the look-ahead and reopened at a flat 36. The shortest total of the season this year has been 35.5 which bettors have seen three times this year (2-1 O/U). The Titans saw a closing 35.5 total last week vs. the Falcons and that hit the over early in the fourth quarter.
On the season, both teams are a combined 3-11 O/U. I’m likely off this total but certainly lean to the Over on the 35.5 or 36. It’s just such a small number and I don’t see a massive downgrade from Pickett to Trubisky. Both defenses can get burned in the secondary and Tennessee ran more plays and had a faster pace with Levis under center than with Tannehill. The weather shouldn’t be an issue either.
Titans vs Steelers betting trend to know
Check back soon! Find more NFL betting trends for Titans vs. Steelers.
Titans vs Steelers game info
| Location: | Acrisure Stadium, Pittsburgh, PA |
| Date: | Thursday, November 2, 2023 |
| Kickoff: | 8:20 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Amazon Prime or NBC |
| Opening odds: | Steelers -2.5, 36 |
Titans vs Steelers latest injuries
Titans vs Steelers weather
Monitor gametime conditions with our live NFL weather info and learn how weather impacts NFL betting.
Stay updated with the latest picks, odds, and news! Tap the 
to add us to your favorites on Google News to never miss a story.
