Tom Brady TNF Spotlight: Player Props for Thursday Night Football Week 8

We've done it. We've finally reached the pinnacle of NFL player props spotlights, with the GOAT himself now coming into our focus for a Week 8 prime-time showdown against the Baltimore Ravens.

So, naturally, we're going to hammer all the Overs on Tom Brady props... right?

...

...

No.

After two horribly disappointing weeks, and a generally disappointing season, my Ravens vs. Buccaneers predictions are not looking overly confident on Brady to bounce back Thursday night against an improving Ravens defense.

See just exactly how my free NFL picks are fading TB12 with my Ravens-Buccaneers TNF props, featuring the oldest man in (football) music.

Tom Brady TNF prop picks

• Under 280.5 passing yards
• Over 25.5 completions
• Brady vs Jackson passing yards - Jackson +71.5

Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

Tom Brady TNF props

Rough seas continue

I mentioned those two 'horribly disappointing' weeks Brady has posted, well, it can't get any worse than putting up 21 total points and 266.5 yards per game against the Panthers and Steelers — also known as the 19th and 29th-ranked teams in terms of passing yards allowed per game.

Now, the Baltimore Ravens also sit 26th, at 261.3 pass yards per contest, but the Ravens have been much better recently, following a shaky start to the season. After giving up 353.5 ypg (including 461 to the Dolphins in Week 2) through the first three games, Baltimore has surrendered just 192.3 ypg over its last four matchups, which included facing Josh Allen and Joe Burrow.

One of the big keys to the Ravens' improved pass defense has been turning pressure into sacks: Baltimore gets pressure on roughly 28% of quarterback dropbacks this season (per Pro Football Focus), but after turning 16% of those pressures into sacks in the first three games, the Ravens are getting to the QB 33% of the time over their last three games.

Baltimore only sacked Allen once in 12 pressures in Week 4, but the Bills' star is one of the most mobile and elusive QBs in the league... words that are the polar opposite of the 45-year-old Brady.

TB12 has crumbled under pressure this season, posting a 39.1% completion rate — the same as Justin Fields and worst than notable names such as Joe Flacco, Andy Dalton, and Baker Mayfield — while also sitting 40th among QBs in yards per attempt (3.8).

Heck, even when he's not pressured, Brady is 29th in ypa and 26th in average depth of target, while sitting second in the NFL in total bad throws (behind only Carson Wentz).

All of this doesn't add up to a QB going Over his passing yards total of 280.5 on Thursday night. It's also a number he's topped in just three of seven games this season — with one coming last week against Carolina (he topped it by nine yards and was boosted by a garbage-time 35-yard completion) and one being a 351-yard effort against Kansas City in Week 4, when he also had a pure pass game script after his team fell behind 21-3.

With Baltimore's pass rush (and pass defense) upping its play, plus the Ravens' run-heavy approach likely chewing into the clock and limiting Brady's overall pass attempts, I'm banking on another disappointing night for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers' signal-caller on Thursday.

Prop: Tom Brady Under 280.5 passing yards (-120)

Playing checkdowns, not chess

Brady's low ypa and aDOT is a result of having more than 68% of his pass attempts go fewer than nine yards, which is a result of him being behind a terrible pass-blocking offensive line.

Tampa's O-line is already without All-Pro C Ryan Jensen, but both starting guards are on the injury report as questionable, while tight end Cameron Brate, who missed last week with a neck injury and is among the best pass-blocking TEs in the league, is out.

That could further deplete a unit that is already just 26th in pass block win rate (52%), with Brady having the second-shortest average time to throw (2.24 seconds) among QBs with at least 50 pass attempts.

Things won't get any easier in the pressure department with the Ravens having a healthy Justin Houston back (who had two sacks last week against Cleveland after missing three games with a groin injury), which also takes attention away from 2021 first-rounder Odafe Oweh and veteran Calais Campbell.

Expect Brady again to have to get rid of the ball quickly, meaning more quick, short throws — especially with short/intermediate safety blanket Chris Godwin now seemingly healthy after playing about 90% of snaps consecutively for the first time this season.

I don't see this leading to Brady going Over his yardage total... but I do TB12 dink-and-dunking his way past his total of 25.5 completions, a number he's surpassed in four of his last five games.

Prop: Tom Brady Over 25.5 completions (-105)

Losing to Lamar

I'm going to do something different here and look at a head-to-head matchup prop against Lamar Jackson, in particular, a passing yards spread prop.

This is a book-specific play, available at DraftKings, where Jackson's passing yards total is set at 211.5 yards, which is 68 yards lower than Brady's prop of 279.5 — but the spread for this H2H matchup is 71.5 yards, which already has me leaning toward Lamar.

I've also established that I think Brady will go Under his total, so it comes down to what we think of Lamar's output, where I think he can do just enough to cover.

He's coming off a season-low 120 yards against Cleveland last week, however, that was an extremely run-heavy game (from both sides) where he only attempted 16 passes — almost half of his 30.2 per-game average in the first six games — with his two top weapons in Mark Andrews and Rashod Bateman both clearly hampered with injuries.

While he may not throw 30 times on TNF, he should creep closer toward his norm and, with his best targets a little healthier, deliver a slightly better performance, considering the Bucs' defense just gave up 177 passing yards to P.J. Walker last week and 144 yards to Mitch Trubisky in the second half of Week 6 — and will now be without two starters in its secondary in Antoine Winfield Jr. and Carlton Davis.

Considering Tampa Bay has also been gashed by the run game lately, I'd expect the Ravens to also continue to pound the rock, but Lamar should still put up something at least in the 180-190 yard range — which would mean that Brady needs to finish around 250-260 pass yards for the underdog to cover.

There's plenty of wiggle room for this number, as I think TB12 could finish even lower than 250 yards or Lamar could actually finish around his passing yards total (211.5), but with how bad the Tampa passing attack looks right now, I'm not betting on Brady to throw for 72 more yards than Lamar.    

Prop: Tom Brady vs. Lamar Jackson passing yards - Jackson +71.5 (-115 at DraftKings)

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