Best NFL Touchdown Props for Week 1: Unlikely Candidates Provide Value in TD Market

Prop bet #1: Howell Play

Many bettors have hit the Anthony Richardson TD prop but with the price falling to as low as +130, I’m pivoting to another rookie quarterback who will be facing possibly the worst defense in the league.

Sam Howell odds can be found for +350 to score Sunday vs. the laughable Arizona Cardinals and is as low as +275. His rushing yard total hasn’t opened at the time of writing but it wouldn't surprise me if was in the mid-20s. 

Howell can run and ran for over 800 yards and 11 TDs in his final year at North Carolina. He’s already got one NFL start under his belt so he isn’t as green as the other rookie starters. He had five carries for 35 yards and a score in that lone start vs. Dallas in Week 18. 

Sam Howell scored a TD for Washington here ???? pic.twitter.com/aWifHIKjUu

— FOX Sports: NFL (@NFLonFOX) January 8, 2023

The Cardinals are much worse heading into the season. They lost five starters and it’s a full rebuild year for the club. Arizona allowed 1.2 rushing TDs per game last year which was a Bottom-5 mark. 

Howell also has two questionable running backs behind him as Brian Robinson ran to a 3.9 YPC last year and doesn’t break long runs and Antonio Gibson lost the starting job to him. 

New Washington Commanders OC Eric Bieniemy comes from the most creative red-zone offense system under Andy Reid and Howell could be used inside the five-yard line effectively. His Week-18 score was on a designed run play on the nine-yard line which is something the playcallers will hopefully remember as his passing was not great inside the 20 where he went 1-for-4 with an interception in that game. 

For a QB with mobility and a 7-point favorite vs. an awful defense under a new HC and DC, +350 is a great price. I’d play this to +300. It's a full unit.

Sam Howell prop: Anytime TD (+350 at BetMGM)

Prop bet #2: Dodge Deon

The Indianapolis Colts’ offense has a solid matchup vs. the Jacksonville Jaguars who lost EDGE rusher Arden Key while DE Dawuane Smoot will miss the first four games. It finished as an average defense last in EPA/play and success rate and should see a heavy dose of the Indy running game with a rookie QB under center and Shane Steichen as the head coach.

Right now, Zack Moss is listed as atop the depth chart but he was limited at practice Thursday and is working his way back from a broken arm — an injury that labeled him very doubtful for Week 1 when it occurred. 

Enter No.2 Deon Jackson who would get most of the work if Moss sits but will also get touches if Moss can somehow suit up. Jackson is the bigger of the two backs which helps his chances of getting the goal-line work. He has been running with the ones during the preseason and could be the guy in a good matchup in a likely run-heavy offense with the raw Richardson at QB.

The markets are adjusting to Deon Jackson’s odds for TD opportunities as BetMGM is as short as even money as of Friday but bet365 at +210 is hard to pass up. I’d play this to +170 as THE BLITZ is projecting 0.42 scores from the running back making this a great +EV with roughly 25% expected value. It’s a full unit and I’ll be watching to see if rookie Evan Hull gets into the mix as he is +500 to score but Jackson saw the majority of the first-team offense over the final two preseason games. 

Deon Jackson prop: Anytime TD (+210 at bet365)

Prop bet #3: Foster the people

Backup tight ends are some of my favorite TD props to play as their returns are immense and that’s why I’m targeting Foster Moreau's odds for anytime TD at +1,400 at DraftKings for 0.3 units to win 4.2.

Moreau is back with his Boo in Derek Carr in New Orleans where the QB is likely happy to have a familiar receiving option. Moreau is the No.2 behind Juwan Johnson but he has over 1,000 yards and 12 TDs with Carr over his career and still saw red-zone targets behind Darren Waller in Las Vegas.

The Saints will take on the Tennessee Titans who had the No.1 run defense a year ago and were impossible to run against. They did, however, allow the passing yards per game and allowed 1.7 passing TDs per match which was a Bottom-5 mark.

Johnson is a stud but if the Saints go heavy in the red zone vs. a team you can’t run against, Moreau will see snaps. 

There is also a heartfelt angle here as the tight end recently tweeted out that he is in full remission from Hodgkin’s Lymphoma and just getting ready for Week 1 is uplifting. He didn’t see much preseason action so the snap count will be low, but he's more effective in the red zone anyway. 

THE BLITZ is projecting 0.13 touchdowns with the +1,400 odds implying roughly 0.03 making this one of the highest implied vs. projected differences on the board.   

Foster Moreau prop: Anytime TD (+1,400 at DraftKings)