NFL Anytime Touchdown Props for Week 1: Ray Davis, Bucky Irving & Joe Mixon Bring Big Value

TD Prop bet #1: Ray Davis

Best odds: +650 at FanDuel

There's a good chance rookie rusher Ray Davis gets the goal-line work in the opener which would make +650 for a touchdown insane value. Josh Allen should and will be protected as a runner earlier in the season and Ty Johnson is not the answer in tight as he showed last year by ceding hard carries to Latavius Murray.

Sean McDermott has praised Davis on his physical running and the Buffalo Bills could score five TDs against an Arizona Cardinals team that's favored to allow the most points in the regular season. If he gets the carries in tight, this could easily move to shorter than +200 for Week 2. 

Books are really struggling to price this prop as it opened at +550 at DraftKings and +330 at bet365. FanDuel has moved the other way while BetRivers and Kambi books are the shortest at +290.

The Bills project to be one of the heaviest run teams in football this year and Davis could have a role in the red zone as Josh Allen's vulture TDs are hopefully scaled back earlier in the season. This game could also be a route and the backups could get some late run. Let's go for 0.75 units here.

TD Prop bet #2: Bucky Irving

Best odds: +440 at FanDuel

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers ranked dead last with 3.6 yards per carry a season ago. That was on the heels of 3.4 yards per carry in 2022, which also ranked 32nd in the league. I like Rachaad White's versatility, but this is a running back who's ranked outside the Top 40 in yards per rush in his first two years in the league despite having a run-first coach.

Todd Bowles talked on Wednesday about using the hot-hand approach this week vs. the Washington Commanders who allowed the most TDs per game (3.5) in 2023. Bowles said White will get the start but fourth-round rookie and Oregon product Bucky Irving will get some work in and possibly push White for snaps. 

#Bucs HC Todd Bowles on the RB rotation:

“I think it’ll be a game-by-game basis. You normally go with the hot hand, but since nobody has played yet, obviously Rachaad [White] starts and then we’ll kinda go from there and see how the other guys are used.” pic.twitter.com/mdZZm3bxIg

— The Coachspeak Index (@CoachspeakIndex) September 4, 2024

Irving might not be the call on the goal line, but he's explosive in the passing game and is +440 to find the end zone vs. a Washington team that's still bad and has three defensive linemen out and two questionable of the 10 on the roster.

There's always a big range of outcomes for these rookie TDs, but big plus-money odds are always the friend of variance. Let's also go for 0.75 units here, as well.

TD Prop bet #3: Joe Mixon

Best odds: +115 at DraftKings

Everyone loves the Houston Texans this year but Joe Mixon's name isn't always thrown around in the discussion of why this offense is going to be great again. The organization just paid him handsomely with a three-year deal worth over $25 million, and he'll be getting the rock against an Indianapolis Colts team that ranked 29th in rushing TDs allowed per game in 2023. 

Mixon's work in the red zone is especially going to be prevalent in Week 1. Just ask head coach DeMeco Ryans, who had this to say about his red zone offense and Mixon's role in it. 

#Texans HC DeMeco Ryans on his red zone offense:

“A good red zone offense, you have to be able to run the ball. All offenses in the history of the league that have been really good in the red zone, they’ve been able to run the ball. And that’s what it’s gonna take for us… We’re… pic.twitter.com/QOICCfgccq

— The Coachspeak Index (@CoachspeakIndex) September 4, 2024