We are in the middle portion of the NFL season as the weeks are starting to bleed together, but don’t let that distract you from the TD value out there in the Week 11 odds.
This week, I’m looking in what is not priced in with a returning QB who had five rushing TDs over his first five NFL starts but is longer than +200 this week, getting the red-zone back for the Chargers ahead of their beatdown of the Bengals’ defense, and betting a on a rookie RB who has taken over the No. 1 role in Denver.
These are my three favorite Week 11 anytime touchdown bets.
Week 11 touchdown props
- Estime anytime TD (+162 at bet365)
- Richardson anytime TD (+220 at DraftKings)
- Edwards anytime TD (+260 at bet365)
Read full analysis of each pick.
Best Week 11 TD props
TD Prop bet #1: Audric Estime anytime TD
Best odds: +162 at bet365
Audric Estime has taken over the lead-back role in the Denver Broncos offense. He took 14 of the 17 running back carries last week en route to a 14-carry, 53-yard performance vs. a tough Kansas City defense.
Javonte Williams has been a hard fade with his 3.8 yards per carry, but the former starter had just one carry last week. It's Estime’s backfield in Week 11, and even head coach Sean Payton said Estime will continue to get more reps, which is great for his +162 TD price.
#broncos rookie RB Audric Estime led Denver with 14 carries vs the #chiefs and no other player had more than 3. Javonte Williams had 1 carry. It's telling Estime is going to keep getting the rock moving forward. Sean Payton liked how he ran vs KC and plans to keep increasing his…
— James Palmer (@JamesPalmerTV) November 11, 2024
This is a buy early prop as the market is as low +125. The rookie RB had two of the three red-zone carries and the Atlanta Falcons defense is anything but stout.
Estime will be a popular Over play this week, but with a TD price of +140 or better, it’s an easy buy for me and a role that might not be fully priced into the Week 11 player props.
TD Prop bet #2: Anthony Richardson anytime TD
Best odds: +220 at DraftKings
The Indianapolis Colts QB flip-flopping continues into Week 11 as Anthony Richardson will re-take his starting role. That means a less-efficient passing game, but the chance for a +220 A-Rich rushing TD is decent. This was a TD price that was as short as even money back in Week 3.
The New York Jets defense has struggled with tackling of late, something interim head coach Jeff Ulbrich was vocal about this week. Just last week, Arizona’s Kyler Murray rushed for two scores vs. this New York team that might be waving the white flag ahead of Week 12.
Interim #Jets HC Jeff Ulbrich did a tackling presentation to the entire team after the Week 10 #Cardinals debacle [20 missed tackles].
— Paul Andrew Esden Jr (@BoyGreen25) November 14, 2024
Sauce Gardner was asked for his takeaways from it…
‘We know how to tackle. We know how to tackle. We gotta make the tackles. That’s really… pic.twitter.com/8bIBsF22jo
Richardson might be an awful passer, but the QB is motivated, rested, and can run. The former first-round pick started his career with five rushing TDs over his first five games before getting blanked for four straight. However, he did just run the ball 14 times in his first game back after a two-game absence and had 101 rushing yards on 21 carries in the two games before being benched.
With a QB who is finally healthy and trying to secure his professional future, my NFL picks expect the best effort from the Indy QB this week vs. a soft defense.
TD Prop bet #3: Gus Edwards anytime TD
Best odds: +260 at bet365
Gus Edwards is back for the Los Angeles Chargers and that’s good news for bettors able to get his TD price this week at +200 or better.
The big back returned last week from a four-game absence and took 10 carries (including four in the red zone) for 55 yards compared to JK Dobbins’ 15 carries and 50 yards. Edwards didn’t play many snaps, but his role was significant, and he was more a more efficient runner than Dobbins vs. a very good Titans’ defense.
This week, the Chargers get one of the softest defenses in football in the Cincinnati Bengals, who have allowed nearly 100 points over the last three games. Over that trio of games, the Bengals have given up five rushing TDs.
At +260, getting the majority of the RZ work, and likely back to full health, the bigger Edwards at that price is a full-unit TD for me this Sunday.
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