Best NFL Touchdown Props for Week 6: Hop Aboard the Hopkins Bandwagon

Prop bet #1: Money-making Moss

Here I am again backing a Zack Moss TD. I hit the Zack Moss odds at +210 back in Gardner Minshew’s last start, and I’m firing again at +205 via DraftKings in Week 6.

Jonathan Taylor was back in the fold last week but Moss went off for a career day with 195 total yards and a pair of scores. That also came against one of the best rushing defenses in football, the Titans.

The Zack Moss Game:

🔥: 195 yards from scrimmage
🔥: 2 TDs
🔥: 7.17 average yards per carry pic.twitter.com/Pn6XCBhomc

— NFL (@NFL) October 9, 2023

He rushed the ball 23 times last week, pushing his average to 22.25 carries per game for 5.0 yards per attempt. With Anthony Richardson sidelined again, there are more goal-line opportunities to go around. 

Last week alone, Moss had eight red-zone carries. Since Week 2, only three backs have more carries inside the 20-yard line than the Colts back, but those RBs are returning much shorter odds. 

With Taylor possibly getting a smaller role than anticipated as this coaching staff has no history with him, I’m buying a Moss TD at +150 or better this Sunday. Taylor played just 10 snaps to Moss’ 49 last week. It should be Moss at -105 for a score and not Taylor. 

Zack Moss prop: Anytime TD (+205 at DraftKings)

Prop bet #2: More than due

DeAndre Hopkins had his breakout 2023 game last week where he saw 11 of Ryan Tannehill’s 34 passes, which he turned into 140 yards. On the season, the veteran has totaled 356 scoreless yards. No player in football entering Week 6 has more yards without a TD. That could change in London on Sunday morning.

The DeAndre Hopkins odds are paying +200 (FanDuel and BetMGM), which is about 30-40 points longer than he was paying last week vs. the Colts. The matchup vs. Baltimore is making these odds longer, as the Ravens have allowed just four passing TDs this year, but they’ve also seen some questionable QB play.

On the season, Baltimore has seen Kenny Pickett, Dorian Thompson-Robinson, Gardner Minshew, a Week 2 Joe Burrow, and C.J. Stroud in his first NFL start. Add in the travel and this defense might be slightly overrated. It sits in the middle of the league allowing over 150 receiving yards per game to opposing wide receivers. 

Corner Marlon Humphrey will likely see a lot of Hopkins. He is a Top-20 DB but is also coming back from foot surgery and made his debut last week, where he allowed five receptions on six targets.   

Hopkins is one of nine receivers getting a 30% target share, which is elite. The Titans star has put up the numbers and finally breaks the plane this week across the pond. 

DeAndre Hopkins prop: Anytime TD (+200 at FanDuel)

Prop bet #3: Ridley as a bee

The Colts are thin in the secondary and lost one of their best coverage backs in Dallis Flowers since the Week 1 matchup with the Jaguars. This is a secondary that is weak on the outside, as Hopkins’ big game last week proved (he topped his receiving-yard total by 83 yards).

Calvin Ridley went for 8/101/1 vs. Flowers and the Colts in the opener, and because of a lack of volume (20% target share), the Calvin Ridley odds have been discounted slightly in his TD department. The best price on the board entering the home matchup is +175 at bet365, and it's a play I’m taking to +140. 

As of Friday, some books are already as short as +115. If this market dips below the threshold, Zay Jones is the next-best option at +250 or better. 

Ridley has two TDs on the season and a pair of 100-yard games. He hasn’t been a Top-10 receiver this year, but at +175 in an ideal matchup vs. a team that he’s already burned, I’m backing a TD here for a full unit. 

Do not parlay this TD with Moss on bet365 in an SGP. The true odds are +656 but the SGP is paying only +625. Don’t lose any of that value by looking for a bigger hit. A +175 winner is still good plus money.

Calvin Ridley prop: Anytime TD (+175 at bet365)