NFL Anytime Touchdown Props for Week 7: Tyler Allgeier, Chase Brown & Jahmyr Gibbs

TD Prop bet #1: Tyler Allgeier anytime TD

Best odds: +188 at bet365

Tyler Allgeier closed out the Atlanta Falcons' Week 6 win and out-carried Bijan Robinson 18/105/1 to 15/95/2. The "backup" back had just a 41% snap share but took 69% of the snaps in the fourth quarter as the Falcons iced the game vs. the Panthers. That same game script is in the range of outcomes in Week 7 as the Seattle Seahawks have looked bad over the last three games and have given up 107 total points and 1.3 rushing TDs per game. 

The real value in Allgeier lies in the RZ work. In Week 6, Allgeier led all running backs in red-zone carries with a whopping eight which to date is the third-highest amount of RZ carries by a single back in one week. He had three carries inside the 5-yard line and scored on one of them. Robinson finished with four RZ carries but is paying as short as -190 for a TD compared to Allgeier's +188. 

It's an indoor game that should increase scoring and any game vs. the banged-up Seahawks has shootout potential. If Allgeier continues to get heavy RZ work, I'll be betting on him for a TD until the price touches +135/+140. His close-out role is also not priced in. 

Even if he sees eight carries, those will come closer to the goal line. Keeping Robinson fresh will also give Allgeier a consistent role. 

TD Prop bet #2: Chase Brown anytime TD

Best odds: +150 at FanDuel

Chase Brown has become the No.1 back in the Cincinnati Bengals' backfield and out-snapped the latter for the first time this year thanks to Moss' lost fumble in Week 6 which saw him benched after. Following that turnover, Brown played 91% of the snaps. He has also outproduced Moss in three straight weeks. 

In the red zone, Brown has turned his four RZ carries into two scores across the last three games while Moss has been stuffed on all of his four RZ carries over those three weeks. Both of those scores came from inside the 5-yard line for Brown. 

The Bengals are 5.5-point favorites on the road this week vs. a Cleveland Browns team that might have quit already. The Bengals still have one of the best offenses in football and should be able to keep Brown busy for four quarters and inside the red zone. However, price is everything and with Brown paying as high as +150 for a role that should be closer to +105/+110, this is my favorite TD of the week. The injuries to the Browns' offense of Deshaun Watson's ability to take a sack is going to give the Bengals a ton of great field position on Sunday. 

TD Prop bet #3: Jahmyr Gibbs anytime TD

Best odds: +130 at FanDuel

On the season, Jahmyr Gibbs has 16 red-zone carries to David Montgomery's 16. Gibbs is also coming off a week where he outsnapped Monty 53% to 32% where both backs had 12 carries but Gibbs had four more targets. Gibbs is the higher-volume RB in this backfield but is paying +130 for a TD compared to Montgomery's -175. That is too big of a difference to not take Gibbs who is being priced as the backup with no RZ role which isn't true.

It's not the easiest matchup vs. the Minnesota Vikings, but this is one of the best offenses in football in another indoor game and Gibbs should see 20 looks on Sunday. He should not be more than +110. Monty's RZ role seems overblown after a two-TD week in Week 6 where both of these backs get touches inside the 20. Gibbs has four TDs on the season and has scored in three of the five games this year.