Everything is on the line this weekend and with injuries and weather reports affecting a lot of possible NFL odds production, it’s important to take some time with your anytime TD bets. It’s not just about finding the highest probable plane-breakers, it’s also about finding what’s not priced in and getting the best number week after week all the way until the Super Bowl odds are decided.
For the Wild Card odds, I’m taking a bit of risk with a backup TE who is returning to the lineup while the starter is hopefully out, backing the better value in Tampa with a receiver, and taking the value that the spread and weather are giving me in Buffalo.
Here are my three best NFL picks for the Wild Card TD props.
Wild Card touchdown props
- Brock Wright anytime TD (+600 at Caesars)
- Chris Godwin anytime TD (+275 at bet365)
- Najee Harris anytime TD (+230 at bet365)
Picks made on January 11 at 3:22 p.m. ET.
Read full analysis of each pick.
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Best Wild Card TD props
Prop bet #1: Brock party
Detroit Lions head coach Dan Campbell told reporters that TE Sam LaPorta has "an outside shot" at playing on Sunday after hyperextending his knee in Week 18, but it certainly comes off more pessimistic than optimistic. The rookie didn’t practice on Wednesday and is starting to look doubtful. The TD markets are suggesting the same.
Backup Brock Wright has missed three straight games but was back in full at practice on Wednesday and could be the starting TE on Sunday in a game with the biggest total of Wild Card weekend at 51.5. It’s also an indoor game compared to many of the other outdoor contests that will be severely affected by the weather.
The Brock Wright odds can be had at +600 for a TD this week but the markets are falling and will plummet more if LaPorta misses Thursday, too. I’d be thrilled with the +600, but even at +400 or better, this is still a play for me.
Detroit had the ninth-highest TE target share at 23.7% on the year, while the Rams ranked as the second-worst team at defending the position. They allowed an average of 4.8 receptions, 58.1 yards, and 0.5 TDs per game to opposing TEs.
This is a perfect case of getting ahead of the market as some books are as short as +220. If LaPorta doesn’t play, this will close around +250 to +300. If he does play, it won’t move much north of +600. Third-stringer James Mitchell is currently +400 but has just two targets on the season. There’s hidden value in LaPorta’s possible absence and Wright returning to the lineup.
It's a half-unit for me considering the slight risk.
Brock Wright prop: Anytime TD (+600 at Caesars for 0.5 units)
Prop bet #2: Godwin's value
Chris Godwin and Mike Evans finished with identical 41% red-zone target shares this year with 16 targets each. Evans had one more reception but finished with five red-zone TDs to Godwin’s one.
The latter might not have as many scores as Evans, but his opportunities are nearly the same so there shouldn’t be a 150-point difference in their TDs — but there is.
Evans is as short as -152 and as long as +114 for a score vs. the much better high on the Chris Godwin odds of +275. They share nearly identical target shares at 23.6% for Godwin and 24.7% for Evans, so there isn’t a huge difference in their volume. Evans does run the longer routes, but the price is too big of a difference for that.
Tampa’s passing game has one of the best matchups in the playoffs. The Eagles finished as one of three teams that allowed 25 or more points per game on the season and were the No. 31 defense in EPA/play since Week 11. They also allowed the second-most receptions per game at 25.0 and 2.1 passing TDs per game, which was only better than the Commanders.
Philadelphia starting safety Reed Blankenship exited Week 18 with a groin injury and is likely questionable ahead of practice on Thursday, while corner Darius Slay has missed four straight games with a knee injury.
The Buccaneers are also dogs, which could mean a bump in passing game script. There is a lot to like with a Godwin TD at +275, and the probability between him and Evans scoring isn’t as big as the odds are suggesting.
Chris Godwin prop: Anytime TD (+275 at bet365)
Prop bet #3: Najee language
Josh Allen is the likeliest TD scorer in Orchard Park on Sunday, but I don’t want anything to do with his -115 TD odds. However, the Najee Harris odds of +230 to score are something I’ll kindly take a piece of.
He is currently dealing with a knee injury, but that is something that has been consistent mid-week since Week 14. He’ll be fine and suit up for a likely heavy role.
The drop from 42.5 to 35 in the total is certainly giving some value to the TD price that closed at +110 last week. The Steelers are a big dog in this game, but wind and snow will create an increase in the total rushing volume, and anything near the goal line with be Harris’ ball.
Since his Week 6 bye, he has had eight rushing TDs over 12 games and is averaging 16 carries per game, which is a Top-10 mark. Jaylen Warren is not stealing many of the carries and the red-zone work has been dominated by Harris, who has 18 red-zone carries over his last two games, accounting for 34% of all his carries.
The Bills are on a 5-0 SU run but have the worst rush defense over that stretch in both EPA/carry and success rate. Pittsburgh will play very conservatively and I don’t see the Bills running up the score with the weather while facing the better rushing team.
Over the last three games, Pittsburgh ran the ball at the highest rate in football at 60.4%. Harris will be busy Sunday. If Pittsburgh’s offense scores, there is a better than 50% chance it’s Harris.
Najee Harris prop: Anytime TD (+230 at bet365)
Not intended for use in MA.
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