It’s an AFC East showdown on Thursday Night Football with the Miami Dolphins hosting the Buffalo Bills at Hard Rock Stadium, and we’ve got you covered with our top NFL props for the Tua Tagovailoa odds.
Buffalo has largely held Tagovailoa in check for the past two years, and we’re expecting more of the same out of the Miami quarterback.
Tua Tagovailoa TNF player prop picks
- Best bet
Under 264.5 passing yards
(-113 at FanDuel) - SGP Pick
200+ passing
Under 264.5 passing yards
Under 1.5 passing touchdowns
(+366 at FanDuel)
Tua Tagovailoa TNF prop pick
My best bet
Under 264.5 passing yards (-113 at FanDuel)
My analysis
It’s definitely more difficult to handicap the Miami Dolphins offense with running backs De'Von Achane (ankle) a game-time decision and Raheem Mostert (chest) out for Thursday Night Football against the Buffalo Bills.
On the surface, it might look to set up quarterback Tua Tagovailoa to attack through the air slightly more. However, I’m not convinced that’ll be the case as Achane and Mostert are both capable pass-catching backs and combined for nine receptions on 10 targets for 86 yards in Week 1. If Achane is also out or limited, I see Jeff Wilson as less of a threat through the air, and rookie Jaylen Wright only caught 30 passes across three seasons in college. The offense as a whole won’t be nearly as dynamic, either.
Plus, there’s a lot of familiarity between these divisional rivals, and Tagovailoa has averaged just 218.8 passing yards across his past four games against the Bills while going Under this total in three of four. I’m also anticipating Buffalo having success on the ground and aiming to win the time-of-possession battle.
The Bills had the highest success rate on offense while ranking second in EPA per play and offensive DVOA in Week 1, and I’m not convinced the Miami stop unit can keep them off the field after allowing the Jacksonville Jaguars to run for 4.9 yards per carry in their opener.
Additionally, the game script was set up for Tagovailoa to air it out in Week 1, with Jacksonville jumping out to a 14-0 lead and leading 17-7 at halftime. I’m expecting Thursday’s game to be tight throughout.
Tua Tagovailoa TNF same-game parlay
200+ passing yards
Under 264.5 passing yards
Under 1.5 passing touchdowns
The uncorrelated legs in this same-game parlay provide longer odds, and while Tagovailoa won't be airing it out all over the Bills on Thursday, Buffalo isn’t going to hold the Miami passing attack completely in check. I am anticipating Buffalo trying to eliminate the big plays, which will open up a lot underneath for both Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle.
Hill caught seven of 12 targets for 130 yards in the opener last week, and Waddle hauled in all five passes thrown his way for 109 yards. Additionally, Tagovailoa posted a 6.4 aDoT in Week 1, and I’m anticipating more of the same dink-and-dunk attack against the Bills.
For what it’s worth, the Miami QB has failed to throw two touchdowns in six of his past seven games dating back to last season, and Tagovailoa’s numbers in his two TNF games are incredibly pedestrian.
Tua completed just 16 of 27 pass attempts for a total of 268 yards in those contests, which took place on the road against the Cincinnati Bengals in 2022 and at home against the Baltimore Ravens in 2021.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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