The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are coming off their late-season bye and welcome the Minnesota Vikings to Raymond James Stadium this week. Minny squeaked out an overtime win against the 1-10 Jaguars at home last week but have won five of their last six.
Both teams currently sit in an NFC playoff spot, making this week’s showdown even more important for a pair of squads trending in opposite directions.
The Bucs may be losers of three of their last four but find themselves as 6.5-point home favorites. That number could land at -7 as the week progresses. The total opened at 52.5 but has since dropped a full point to 51.5.
Minnesota Vikings at Tampa Bay Buccaneers Betting Preview
Weather
It will be a bland day in Tampa on Sunday, with temperatures expected in the low 80s and cloudy skies (7 mph winds). Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our NFL weather info.
Key Injuries
Vikings: Eric Kendricks LB (Out), Alexander Mattison RB (Out), Kyle Rudolph TE (Out).
Buccaneers: Jamel Dean CB (Out), Khalil Davis DE (Out), Leonard Fournette RB (Out).
Find our latest NFL injury reports.
Betting Trend to Know
The Vikings are 4-0 ATS in their last four as an underdog, 4-0 ATS in their last four road games and 4-0 ATS in their last four against a team with a winning record. Find more NFL betting trends for Vikings vs. Buccaneers.
Against the Spread (ATS) Pick
The bye couldn’t have come at a better time for the Buccaneers, as the sky was starting to fall for Tom and Co. Tampa started the year on a heater, going 6-2 SU in its first eight, but three losses in their last four (albeit against tough opponents) has the Bucs scrambling with only four weeks to go.
A lot has been said about the offense’s struggles, but it's the Tampa Bay defense that has been getting exposed since the beginning of November. Over those five games, the defense has allowed 27.6 points per game, in stark contrast to the 18.2 mark it had given up in its five prior.
The Vikings own one of the most balanced offensive attacks and QB Kirk Cousins has been averaging over 300 passing yards a game over his last four contests. Cousins has 11 TDs over that stretch, with just two interceptions. The Minnesota QB’s play of late is a huge reason why this Vikings team is 5-1 SU over its last six and currently sit in a playoff spot after starting the season 1-5 SU.
This line might be better to get later in the week, as the spread is trending towards the seven, but for this article’s sake, we’re taking the visiting team at +6.5 dogs.
PREDICTION: Minnesota +6.5 (-110)
Over/Under Pick
Both teams come into Sunday’s game 4-2 O/U in their last six games. Each team sits in the Top 10 in TDs scored per game, and with the way both defenses have played of late, more TDs in Florida could be on the way.
The Bucs may still have the No. 1 DVOA rush defense, per Football Outsiders, but their passing defense could be exposed against the hottest QB in the league.
Cousins has the second-most passing yards over the last four weeks, and only Aaron Rodgers has thrown more TDs over that time than Cap’ Kirk. WR Adam Thielen is back and this passing attack is ready to roll in Week 14.
Speaking of passing defenses, the Vikings have been crippled by injuries to their secondary all year, and currently have four DBs out and another two questionable for Sunday’s match. The Vikes may own the No. 10 DVOA pass defense, but when teams have attacked their thin secondary, they have found success to the tune of nearly 11 yards per completion — a bottom-eight mark.
Combined, both these teams are 15-9 O/U on the season.
PREDICTION: Over 51.5 (-110)
Player Prop Pick
Heading into Week 14, only the Seattle Seahawks have allowed more receptions to opposing wide receivers than the Buccaneers. On the season, Tampa is allowing 15.1 receptions to opposing WRs per game. They’re also the second-most passed against team in the league.
This is great news for Thielen, who will be two weeks removed from his COVID absence come Sunday. In his return from the illness last week, Thielen hauled in eight of his 11 targets, the second straight game the Vikings’ receiver has caught at least eight balls.
With Cousins firing at will and gaining over 300 yards per game since Week 10, the Vikings would be smart to attack the Bucs through the air. Thielen will be a massive part of the game plan as he owns a 25 percent target share on the year.
PREDICTION: Adam Thielen Over 5.5 receptions (+100)
Vikings vs Buccaneers Betting Card
- Minnesota +6.5 (-110)
- Over 51.5 (-110)
- Adam Thielen Over 5.5 receptions (+100)
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