The Minnesota Vikings have their work cut out for them as they travel into Wisconsin winter conditions to face the Green Bay Packers. While that may be daunting enough on its own, the Vikes are going to be a bit shorthanded on Sunday Night Football.
Starting quarterback Kirk Cousins (COVID) will miss this NFC North primetime showdown, news that swung this NFL betting spread from Minnesota +6.5 to as high as +13.5. This uncertain scenario will play out in what is forecasted to be the coldest game in Lambeau Field history, with game-time temperatures around 7 degrees (feels like 3 degrees).
Cozy up to our free NFL picks for Vikings at Packers on January 2.
Vikings vs Packers odds
Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
The spread originally opened at Packers -6.5 and bounced between a touchdown and that opener until news broke that Cousins would miss Week 17 due to testing positive for COVID. The spread was readjusted to Green Bay -13 and went up to as high as -13.5. Since then, some books are down to as low as Packers -12.5. The total opened 47.5 and slimmed to 46.5 before the Cousins news dropped the number to 42.5 points.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until kickoff and be sure to check out the full NFL odds before placing your bets.
Vikings vs Packers predictions
- Prediction: Packers -12.5 (-110)
- Prediction: Under 42.5 (-110)
- Best bet: First quarter Under 9 (-130)
Predictions made on 01/02/2022 at 9:00 a.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Vikings vs Packers game info
• Location: Lambeau Field, Green Bay, WI
• Date: Sunday, January 2, 2022
• Time: 8:15 p.m. ET
• TV: NBC
Vikings at Packers betting preview
Weather
Monitor gametime conditions with our live NFL weather info and learn how weather impacts NFL betting.
Key injuries
Vikings: Kirk Cousins QB (Out), Kyle Sloter QB (Out), Adam Thielen WR (Out), Wayne Gallman RB (Out), Wyatt Davis G (Out), Tashawn Bower DE (Out), Michael Pierce NT (Out), Patrick Jones II DE (Out), Nick Vigil LB (Out), Cameron Dantzler CB (Out)
Packers: David Bakhtiari T (Out), Billy Turner T (Out), Kingsley Keke DE (Out), Jack Heflin DL (Out), Shawn Davis S (Out), Vernon Scott S (Out)
Find our latest NFL injury reports.
Betting trend to know
Green Bay is 30-9 SU and 26-15 ATS versus NFC North opponents at home since 2008. Find more NFL betting trends for Vikings vs. Packers.
Vikings vs Packers picks and predictions
Our predictions are compiled from the analysis of the spread and total and are indications of where we are leaning for this game.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this game, which we would actually put some of our bankroll behind.
Spread analysis
With Cousins replaced by backup Sean Mannion for this Sunday night game, Minnesota will be leaning heavily on the run game of Dalvin Cook and the defense to get the job done. The latter of which doesn’t look up to the task.
The Vikings' stop unit has been a sore spot with this team all season, entering 2021 as one of the top stop units in the NFL. However, inconsistent efforts have plagued this group all year and now as the season comes to a close, Minnesota’s defense is a major concern.
The Vikes have allowed 28 points or more in five of their last six contests, going back to their first meeting with the Cheeseheads in Week 11 – a 34-31 victory at home. Minnesota hasn’t been able to slow down opposing passers in this span, showing an EPA allowed per dropback of +0.092 (19th) and a success rate of 49.6% which sits 26th in the league during this stretch.
Outside of that Week 11 run-in with Aaron Rodgers and a home loss to Matthew Stafford and the L.A. Rams last week, Minnesota hasn’t faced elite QB competition in those six games. Now, you get the reigning league MVP (and likely 2021 award winner) on his home turf in a revenge spot on primetime time, facing a crumbling defense that is also missing key starters in the front seven.
As for the home side’s defense, the Packers have an opportunistic secondary that has helped this defense rank sixth in takeaways with 26 on the year – 18 via interception. With no Thielen and a dinged-up TE in Tyler Conklin, Green Bay will sell out on stopping the run and put the game on Mannion’s untested arm and a thin group of receiving options.
Prediction: Green Bay -12.5 (-110)
Over/Under analysis
There’s no secret to the Vikings’ plan of attack on Sunday night: Dalvin Cook and plenty of him.
Not only does that approach limit Mannion’s exposure but it chews up the clock and keeps Rodgers on the sideline while pushing around a Packers defense that has allowed 6.7 yards per carry over its last three games.
That ground-and-pound plan may work in the first half, but eventually, the Packers will challenge Minnesota to move the ball through the air by stacking the box and taking Cook out of the equation.
This Green Bay stop unit has a lot to prove before the playoffs, after getting gashed for bigger gains and points the past month. The Packers rank 21st in EPA allowed per play since Week 12 and that backslide isn’t lost on defensive coordinator Joe Barry, who told the media his group has plenty to accomplish in these final two games – regardless of Minnesota’s missing offensive weapons.
On offense, the Packers will match the Vikings’ plodding pace as they wear down this purple and gold defense and let the sub-freezing temps sink in. Green Bay runs the slowest offense in the NFL, burning through 30.57 seconds per snap.
This total slumped from 47.5 to 42.5 points when Cousins was ruled out, but there will still be headroom for Under bettors when this primetime clash is over.
Prediction: Under 42.5 (-110)
Best bet
Slow starts have been a bad habit for the Packers this season (average only 2.7 1Q points) and Minnesota is a strong first-quarter team (allowing only 3.1 1Q points), so things will be uncomfortable in the early going for those laying the lumber with the Cheeseheads.
The Vikings will go handoff heavy until Green Bay figures out a way to stop the run, which means plenty of shorter gains that keep the clock ticking in the opening frames. The Packers may also see an uptick in their rushing efforts, as they test the Vikes defensive front with Minnesota missing key cogs on the line – specifically nose tackle Michael Pierce.
Add to that the frigid temperatures making every movement ache and hits sting a little extra, and both teams could be a tad timid until the blood gets pumping and the body numbs up.
Most books have the first-quarter total set at 7.5 (Under -120), however, FanDuel is showing Under 9 (-130) as of Sunday morning. We’ll pay an extra 10 cents for an added two-point buffer on this derivative total.
Pick: First quarter Under 9 (-130)
