The Minnesota Vikings need to shake off a bad Week 18 loss that cost them the top seed in the conference before crossing the country to battle the Los Angeles Rams in the Wild Card Round on Monday Night Football.
The loss in the season finale dropped Minnesota to No. 5 in the NFC and has the team playing back-to-back road games and its third away game in four weeks. Oddsmakers opened L.A. as a short home underdog and early action has been very interesting.
I look into the Wild Card odds and give my best early Vikings vs. Rams predictions and NFL picks for January 13.
Vikings vs Rams predictions
Early spread lean
Rams +1.5 (-115 at FanDuel)
My analysis
The Los Angeles Rams have been that team no one wants to face in the postseason for a few weeks now. Los Angeles surprised many with a strong second half of the schedule, losing only three of its final dozen games – one of which came while sitting starters in Week 18.
Sean McVay has done a tremendous job coaching up L.A., and while he may not earn any hardware for it, he could get another playoff victory on his resume in the Wild Card Round.
The betting markets seem convinced, with L.A. opening as a 2.5-point home underdog and slimming to +1.5 on Monday afternoon. Of course, Los Angeles’ 30-20 home win over the Minnesota Vikings in Week 8 is helping push the point spread.
The validity of Minnesota was put into question in Week 18, namely the ability of QB Sam Darnold to lift this team up in tough situations. Darnold looked terrible in the loss to Detroit on Sunday night, with the Vikings just not able to crack the end zone.
They finished with nine points on a night in which they went 0-for-4 in the red zone. Red-zone offense has been a soft spot for this offense all season, with the Vikes sitting 19th in TD percentage on the season, and that output dropping away from home.
The Rams’ defense has been far from elite in 2024, but they do stiffen up at the right times. Los Angeles boasts the fifth-lowest TD rate allowed inside the red zone, and with a total ticking close to 50 points, turning away touchdowns could keep them within striking distance.
When it comes to quarterback and coach advantages, the Rams check those boxes.
Veteran Matt Stafford has plenty of big-game experience and won’t be rattled by Minnesota’s ultra-aggressive pass rush. The Vikings blitz more than any team, while Stafford is historically sharp at making foes pay for bringing extra bodies. He punished Minnesota for four touchdowns and 279 yards passing in Week 8.
I’ll take a lean toward the rare postseason home underdog – a spot that has produced a 22-13-2 ATS (62%) record since 2000.
Early Over/Under lean
Over 47.5 (-105 at FanDuel)
My analysis
The fast track of SoFi Stadium should help along the Over, given weather won’t be a factor and we have two indoor teams in action. These teams posted a collective 50 points on 662 combined yards versus a closing total of 46.5 points back in Week 8.
I mentioned the Rams’ defensive shortcomings above, as the stop unit has sat in the bottom third of the NFL in most measurements, notably slowing down the passing game.
Los Angeles doesn’t bring a lot of pressure and runs zone coverage at one of the highest rates. That hasn’t stopped foes from hitting home-run balls, with L.A. allowing the eighth most completions for 20-plus yards. Minnesota has connected for the second-most 20-plus passes on the year, highlighted by all-world WR Justin Jefferson.
The Rams counter with an elite receiving duo of its own. Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua are a tough task for a Minnesota stop unit slipping in the statistics since Week 12. The Vikes ranked tops in the league for the first half of the sked but have been blasted for bigger scores over the last seven outings.
Los Angeles was able to rest its starters ahead of the postseason and McVay will build on his successful strategies from Week 8, looking to exploit a Vikings team traveling after having the wind knocked out of them in Week 18.
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Vikings vs Rams live odds
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