With the start of a new NFL season, my weekly trends article is back, posting every Wednesday before the games kick-off.
Backing trends at the start of any season, regardless of the sport, can be a little tricky. While some rosters and coaching staffs don’t go through an overwhelming amount of change, others have gone through a dramatic turnover which heavily changes the team’s playing philosophy. As a result, we’ll see some trends bleed into the early parts of the 2024 season and beyond, but others will fizzle out quicker than the career of Deshaun Watson.
Some in the betting community can’t stand trends, but I simply view them as a starting point for a handicap. It’s important to ask yourself if some patterns are more coincidental and if the market reacting to the trend. It’s also important to attempt to recognize when a trend is developing and if the stats support jumping on board.
With those words of caution out of the way, let’s get right into the action with my favorite NFL betting trends ahead of Week 1.
Best NFL Week 1 betting trends
Ravens vs. Chiefs
The trend: Chiefs second-half Unders went 18-3 last season.
Including the playoffs, Kansas City's second halves averaged just 14.9 combined points. For what it’s worth, the Chiefs and Ravens ranked first and fifth in second-half points allowed last season, and they combined for just three second-half points in the AFC Championship game! This one has a second-half total of 23.5 points.
See all Ravens vs. Chiefs trends for Week 1.
Packers vs. Eagles
The trend: Philadelphia enters the season on an 0-7 ATS slide.
I think it’s fair to say the wheels fell off in the second half for the Eagles in 2023. This rough stretch also included four separate outright losses as a favorite.
Philly will now try to put those wheels back on in Brazil versus a Packers team that has been a trendy offseason pick to make a run in 2024. Featuring some new faces on the offensive line and some shiny new coordinators, the Eagles are a 2.5-point favorite.
See all Packers vs. Eagles trends for Week 1.
Titans vs. Bears
The trend: The Titans went Under their team total in seven of eight road games last season.
The game where the Titans managed to eclipse the Over came during that infamous Monday nighter in Miami, where they scored 15 points in the final 2:40 to finish with 28 points. Remove that result and they averaged a brutal 10.4 ppg on the road.
Tennessee's team total for this game is at 20.5 and it should be noted that the Bears finished strong on defense to close out last season, holding six of their last eight opponents to 20 points or less.
See all Titans vs. Bears trends for Week 1.
Texans vs. Colts
The trend: All nine of Houston’s road games went Under the first half total last season.
This Texans defense traveled extremely well last season, allowing just 6.2 first-half points per game, which ranked second-best in the league. The first-half total for Sunday's matchup against the Colts is sitting at 23.5, a number they stayed under when the two teams combined for 20 points in Week 18 last season.
See all Texans vs. Colts trends for Week 1.
Cardinals vs. Bills
The trend: Josh Allen threw an interception in 14 of 17 regular season games last season.
There’s not much here from a Bills perspective, so let’s cater to the prop bettors out there. Josh Allen has been on the wild side in the last two season openers, where he’s thrown a total of five picks!
If you think the Cardinals can pick him off, Over 0.5 interceptions is available at -110.
See all Cardinals vs. Bills trends for Week 1.
Patriots vs. Bengals
The trend: The Patriots went Under their team total in 12 of 17 games last season.
Your enthusiasm to hammer this bet might get zapped when you see the Patriots have a rock-bottom team total of 15.5 for this game, but don’t forget they’re coming off a season where they averaged a pathetic 13.9 ppg. Taking a look at their wide receiver depth chart might also inspire some confidence in the bet.
See all Patriots vs. Bengals trends for Week 1.
Steelers vs. Falcons
The trend: The Falcons are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games as a favorite.
This 10-game span also includes six outright losses as a favorite. Surely, Kirk Cousins can be trusted to turn this trend around, right? Time will tell, but the Falcons will have their hands full against a Steelers team riding a 5-0 SU and ATS streak as an underdog of three or more.
Pittsburgh is catching three points in this one, and don’t underestimate the Arthur Smith revenge game!
See all Steelers vs. Falcons trends for Week 1.
Panthers vs. Saints
The trend: These teams have hit the Under in seven straight against each other.
It’s been rock-bottom scoring in the last seven matchups between these teams, as they have seen an average combined score of just 32.1 points.
The Panthers closed out last season on a 9-2 Under tear, while the Saints have gone Under in seven straight games at home. The total for this game is 41.5, which is a mark they haven’t topped in a matchup against each other since October 25, 2020.
See all Panthers vs. Saints trends for Week 1.
Jaguars vs. Dolphins
The trend: The Dolphins are 18-7 ATS in their last 25 games as a home favorite.
Miami has built a reputation of smacking around inferior competition, but the Dolphins have been unable to come out with the same fire vs. higher-quality opponents.
Either way, they’re in a position as a 3.5-point favorite at home versus the up-and-down Jaguars. It’s worth noting that Mike McDaniel has started 3-0 in each of his seasons as head coach with the Dolphins, including high-scoring performances in all three contests.
See all Jaguars vs. Dolphins trends for Week 1.
Vikings vs. Giants
The trend: The Giants have gone Under in 14 of their last 20 games.
Giants’ home games were especially low-scoring last season, seeing an average combined score of just 32.7. Conveniently enough, the Vikings' defense finished in the Top 5 last season in both points allowed and yards per play allowed on the road.
Things don’t always carry over from year to year, but Daniel Jones vs. Sam Darnold doesn’t exactly scream shootout! The total for the game is at 41.5.
See all Vikings vs. Giants trends for Week 1.
Raiders vs. Chargers
The trend: The Chargers have gone Under in 12 of their last 15 games.
Another big one saw the Raiders go Under their team total in seven of eight road games last season, while a longer-standing trend within this matchup has seen the Under hit in 15 of the last 19 games when Las Vegas is the visitor.
Watch Sunday's divisional battle against the Chargers be the most explosive shootout of the week. Unsurprisingly, the total is on the low end at 40.5.
See all Raiders vs. Chargers trends for Week 1.
Broncos vs. Seahawks
The trend: The Broncos went 13-4 ATS in the first quarter last season.
Sean Payton had this team ready to start in 2023, especially on the defensive end, where they allowed just 3.1 first-quarter points per game — the fourth-best mark in the NFL.
If you like the trend to carry into this season, you can grab the Broncos at +0.5 on the first-quarter spread against the Seahawks.
See all Broncos vs. Seahawks trends for Week 1.
Cowboys vs. Browns
The trend: Dallas is 0-5 SU and ATS in their last five games as an underdog, while Cleveland is 6-0 ATS in their last six games as a favorite.
See all Cowboys vs. Browns trends for Week 1.
Commanders vs. Buccaneers
The trend: The Bucs went Under in seven of nine home games last season
We saw a lot of low-scoring football in Tampa Bay last season, with Buccaneers home games seeing an average combined score of just 35.4 points.
See all Commanders vs. Buccaneers trends for Week 1.
Rams vs. Lions
The trend: The Lions went 10-4 to the Over in dome games last season.
Is a big-time shootout brewing on Sunday night? That could very well be the case, with this game boasting the highest total of the week at 50.5.
The Lions saw plenty of sky-high scoring when playing indoors last season, scoring at least 30 points in nine of these dome games. As for the Rams, they were one of the league’s hottest offenses down the stretch last season, where they averaged 31.3 ppg from Weeks 12 to 17.
See all Rams vs. Lions trends for Week 1.
Jets vs. 49ers
The trend: The Jets are 3-15 ATS in their last 18 games played in September.
Under Robert Saleh, the Jets have gone 2-7 ATS in September with five double-digit losses. New York also closed out last season as a tremendous fade, going 2-8 ATS in its final 10 games.
The Jets were setting up to catch a few breaks in this matchup, but the 49ers will now be close to full strength after locking up Brandon Aiyuk and Trent Williams, while Christian McCaffrey looks good to go as well. San Francisco is favored by 4.5 ahead of Monday's primetime showdown.
See all Jets vs. 49ers trends for Week 1.
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