The first Sunday of the NFL season is finally here! Whether you’re looking to reinvest the money you made betting on the Bills in the season opener, or are trying to dig out following the Rams’ decisive Thursday night loss, we’ve got a pair of our best NFL parlay picks.
First, we’ll throw our weight behind a couple of undervalued teams in the week 1 NFL odds. Then we’ll combine our top two total plays on the opening slate.
Week 1 NFL parlay picks
- Commanders -2.5 (-110) + Chargers ML (-175) = +200
- 49ers/Bears Under 41 (-110) + Packers/Vikings Over 47 (-110) = +264
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Parlay Pick 1
PARLAY: Commanders -2.5 (-110) + Chargers ML (-175) = +200 (DraftKings)
Commanders -2.5 (-110)
Many weeks ago, the Washington Commanders opened as four-point favorites against the Jacksonville Jaguars, but most books have moved the spread right through the key number of three to 2.5 this week. However, chalk-players shouldn’t be swayed.
It’s tempting to boil down Carson Wentz’s one-year tenure with Indianapolis to a boneheaded shovel-pass interception and a crushing Week 18 loss that cost the Colts a shot at the playoffs, but in reality he had a fine season overall.
Carson Wentz's shovel pass is INTERCEPTED ????pic.twitter.com/oLhc5dqnxF
— Yahoo Sports NFL (@YahooSportsNFL) September 19, 2021
He completed over 62% of his passes and tossed 27 touchdowns — his most since his Pro Bowl season of 2017 — compared to just seven INTs.
Wentz represents a major upgrade under center over Taylor Heinicke, who had a 20-15 touchdown/interception ratio in 2021. If “Scary Terry” McLaurin can be a 1,000-yard receiver without Wentz, it will be truly frightening for opposing defenses to see what he can do now.
Not to be overlooked is running back Antonio Gibson, who rushed for over 1,000 yards in his sophomore season. He’ll take on a Jaguars defense that ranked 24th in stopping the run a year ago, and allowed the third-most rushing touchdowns in the NFL (22).
We’ll admit that Jacksonville has had a productive offseason, that Doug Pederson represents a significant upgrade at head coach, and that quarterback Trevor Lawrence is bound to build on a bumpy rookie campaign. But these things take time, and we don’t see a three-win team from 2021 pulling off a road upset here.
Chargers ML (-175)
If the Chargers spread remained at -3 like it was at a couple of books last week, we would have thrown that in this parlay instead of a moneyline play. However, we don’t want our parlay broken up because of the hook.
Last season, the Chargers and Raiders split their two head-to-head meetings, as Las Vegas overcame a 28-14 loss in Week 4 to prevail in overtime in Week 18, 35-32. However, Los Angeles’ defense is vastly improved in 2022, with Khalil Mack and J.C. Jackson joining the likes of Joey Bosa and Derwin James.
Though Derek Carr has a new No. 1 target in All-Pro Davante Adams, we still like Justin Herbert to outduel his opposite number through the air. Keenan Allen and Mike Williams are arguably the best top-two receivers on any NFL team, and underrated tight end Gerald Everett has joined the offense to give Herbert an underneath option.
That’s not to mention running back Austin Ekeler, who went for 244 all-purpose yards against the Raiders last season.
Parlay Pick 2
PARLAY: 49ers vs Bears Under 41 (-110) + Packers vs Vikings Over 47 (-110) = +264 (WynnBET)
49ers vs Bears Under 41 (-110)
Mother Nature threatens to wreak havoc in the season opener between the 49ers and the Bears, so the Under looks like the way to go.
Rain showers are probable for game day at Soldier Field, with wind gusts of up to 20 mph, which could significantly impact the passing game for both sides.
Trey Lance is still an unknown quantity in his second year in the NFL, but first as the unquestioned starting quarterback for San Francisco. Chicago allowed the third-fewest passing yards per game (191.6) last season, and beefed up this unit by drafting promising cornerback Kyler Gordon and safety Jaquan Brisker this April.
Meanwhile, Bears signal-caller Justin Fields struggled mightily in his rookie season, averaging only 5.9 yards per attempt while producing a 7-10 touchdown/interception ratio. He’ll be behind an offensive line ranked next-to-last in the NFL by Pro Football Focus ahead of training camp.
Arik Armstead and Nick Bosa — who helped the Niners to the second-best sacks per game mark (3.0) in the NFL last year — should make it a miserable start to Fields’ sophomore season.
Packers vs Vikings Over 47 (-110)
The Packers and the Vikings were both offense-first teams in 2021, and following only nominal additions in the offseason, the status quo figures to remain the same this year.
Minnesota took a 34-31 thriller over Green Bay in their first meeting of last season in Week 11, but followed it up by laying an egg in a 37-10 loss in Week 17. That latter tilt marked the fourth straight time these clubs exceeded the total in a head-to-head meeting.
Though Adams is no longer an option for Aaron Rodgers, the two-time reigning NFL MVP should be just fine. He’ll be throwing against a Vikings defense that was fourth-worst in football by passing yards allowed per game (254.9) last season.
Meanwhile, Kirk Cousins has an embarrassment of riches to throw to, starting with Justin Jefferson, who amassed 1,616 receiving yards in 2021. Adam Thielen (726 yards) had a down year last season due in part to injuries, but K.J. Osborn (655) was able to fill the void. Minnesota also took a flier on former Eagles first-round pick Jalen Reagor ahead of Week 1.
Both backfields boast plenty of firepower in Aaron Jones and Dalvin Cook, respectively, but this one figures to be a track meet at climate-controlled U.S. Bank Stadium.
