The bye week.
An NFL team's best friend, giving clubs a chance to get healthy, refocus their game plans, and (for bettors) have a week with no chance at a negative impact on their NFL odds and look-ahead lines.
That's exactly where I'm keying in as I look ahead to Week 10 odds: A solid team that will be coming out of a bye with a spread that will likely move... because its opponent's public perception will not be helped by participating in Week 9, which kicks off tonight.
There are no bye weeks here — we're still going full throttle into a possible free NFL pick you should make a week in advance.
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New York Giants -6 (vs Houston Texans)
| Teams | Current total |
|---|---|
 Houston Texans |
+6 (-110) |
 New York Giants |
-6 (-110) |
The Giants are one of the biggest surprises of the season, sitting at 6-2 heading into their Week 9 vacation, and the Week 10 look-ahead has them laying six points at home against the currently 1-4-1 Texans.
Even if you don't fully believe in the G-Men's start, if you like them against lowly Houston, I'd grab this line now.
First off, Houston is just bad. It has by far the worst running defense in the league, recently giving up 314 rushing yards to a Tennesee Titans team that was obviously going to run with Malik Willis making his first career start (he threw 10 total passes all game).
And what do the Giants do best on offense? Run the ball with Saquon Barkley (cough cough NFL player props to watch cough cough)
Second, the Texans are getting worse, as they were expected to trade star wide receiver Brandin Cooks before Tuesday's NFL Trade Deadline... but then didn't. That led to Cooks posting this cryptic-but-also-blatant tweet that, well, doesn't sound like he's happy:
Don’t take a man’s kindness for granted. Covered for the lies for too long those days are done. Crossed the line with playing with my career ????
— Brandin Cooks (@brandincooks) November 1, 2022
And wouldn't you know, Cooks was ruled out of Houston's Week 9 TNF matchup... due to "personal reasons." It's very possible we may have seen the last of Cooks in a Houston uniform anyways, taking away the biggest receiving threat on the team (with Nico Collins also injured).
Third, about that TNF game. The Texans are facing the 7-0 Philadelphia Eagles — there is a strong likelihood Houston gets blasted in that game and everybody (except the third-stringers) tunes out by midway through the third quarter. That's not going to dismay the public from piling on the Texans come the official Week 10 line.
Finally, this is a big moment for Giants first-year coach Brian Daboll. One of the favorites to win NFL Coach of the Year, Daboll will certainly want to have a good showing in his first time making bye-week adjustments — and considering he seems to indeed be a strong HC, with no threat of a look-ahead spot with the equally bad Lions up after that, he will undoubtedly have his team ready to roll.
I'd expect this to possibly open Sunday night in the -7 range... or possibly on the other side of that key number. If you want to back New York, grab them now while they're laying less than a TD.
