We’ve made it past the first half of the 2022 NFL season, and we’ve learned a lot about where the 32 teams stand. But there’s still a great deal to be discovered, especially when it seems that any team can beat just about anybody on any given Sunday through nine weeks of play.
Using trends and stats both recent and longstanding, I’ve developed a pair of two-pack parlays for Sunday’s action. I’m calling for some home cooking AFC style, and a pair of public sides to pull through. Without further ado, here are my NFL parlay picks for Week 10.
Week 10 NFL parlay picks
- Dolphins -3.5 (-107) + Steelers +2 (-107) = +274
- Lions vs Bears Over 48.5 (-110) + Cowboys -4.5 (-105) = +273
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Parlay Pick 1
PARLAY: Dolphins -3.5 (-107) + Steelers +2 (-107) = +274 at PointsBet
Dolphins -3.5
Tua Tagovailoa and the Dolphins offense should carve up Cleveland’s shoddy pass-stoppers en route to a comfortable win and cover.
The Browns rank 15th in yards allowed per game through the air this season (208.3), and the advanced metrics paint an even more negative picture. Cleveland is seventh-worst in the NFL in yards per attempt by opposing quarterbacks (7.4), and fourth-worst in yards allowed per catch (12.0). They’ve also recorded only three interceptions through eight games, the third-worst mark in the league.
To boot, the Browns have drawn some soft quarterback matchups in 2022, as they’ve played Baker Mayfield, Mitchell Trubisky, and Lamar Jackson on the road. The first two are no longer starting for their respective teams, and Jackson threw a season-low 16 times for a net of 94 yards in a winning effort. Tagovailoa is averaging 336.8 passing yards per game this season when you don’t factor in the two games in which he was forced to depart due to injury.
Cleveland entered their bye week off a stunning 32-13 triumph over the Bengals, but it typically struggles to sustain such momentum. The Browns are 1-9 against the spread in their last 10 games following a straight-up win of more than 14 points, and 2-6 ATS in their last eight games following an ATS win.
Steelers +2 (-107)
A bye week is just what the doctor ordered for the 2-6 Steelers, who were hanging as 3-point underdogs earlier in the week before taking significant action against the Saints prior to Thursday. Bettors may want to wait for some pushback and see if getting three points is possible, but it’s not necessary, as Pittsburgh has a solid chance to win outright.
Reigning DPOY T.J. Watt is expected to return after an eight-game absence in which the Steelers recorded only eight sacks. That’s bound to change against New Orleans, which ranks 15th with 2.1 sacks allowed per game. Safety Damontae Kazee is also expected to make his first start of the year, and corner William Jackson III — brought in from Washington at the trade deadline — should further strengthen this unit.
The promising Kenny Pickett has been thrown to the wolves thus far in his NFL career, facing the Bills, Dolphins, and Eagles on the road, and a stingy Bucs defense in his lone home start. This is the Pitt product’s best chance so far to show what he can do.
The Saints — who are still trotting out Andy Dalton at quarterback of their own free will — are somewhat fortunate to be 3-6, as two of their wins required fourth-quarter comebacks inside of the two-minute warning. Expect their luck to run out in this spot.
Parlay Pick 2
PARLAY: Lions vs Bears Over 48.5 (-110) + Cowboys -4.5 (-105) = +273 at DraftKings
Lions vs Bears Over 48.5 (-110)
As of Friday afternoon, the Lions vs. Bears Over received 81% of all tickets written, and a whopping 95% of the handle. Both the squares and the sharps love this play, so let’s add it to the docket.
Detroit holding the Packers to nine points last week is as fluky a result as you’ll see in the NFL, as Aaron Rodgers inexplicably threw three interceptions in enemy territory in defeat. Even with that result baked in, the Lions are the worst unit in football by points allowed per game in 2022 (29.3), as well as yards allowed per game (417.3).
Chicago may be 1-5 in its last six games, but the development of Justin Fields has been fun to watch. He’s averaging 255.3 all-purpose yards per game in that span, including his incredible Week 9 effort in which he threw for only 123 yards, but ran for 178. Fields has an 8-2 touchdown-interception ratio since Week 4, and has recorded a rushing touchdown in three straight contests.
Jared Goff & Co. will take on a rapidly-deteriorating Bears defense that no longer has Roquan Smith and Robert Quinn lining up for them. Chicago has allowed 84 points in its last two games alone. Detroit’s offense has cooled off considerably since a torrid start, but should be able to do enough to ensure Over bettors cash.
Cowboys -4.5 (-105)
The Cowboys are taking two-thirds of all bets against the Packers this week, but less than half of the handle. This is a classic joes vs pros showdown that’s even featured reverse line movement of about a point at most shops. I’m going to side with the small-timers, as it’s growing increasingly unpalatable to place my faith in Green Bay.
Dallas is fresh off a bye week, which followed a 49-29 thumping of the Bears. Tony Pollard ran for 131 yards and three touchdowns while Ezekiel Elliott was sidelined, but both tailbacks are expected to be in the lineup this Sunday. That spells trouble for the Packers, who are seventh-worst in the NFL at stopping the run (138.6 yards allowed per game). Losing Rashan Gary for the season last week won’t help matters either.
Green Bay is also dealing with injuries at wide receiver, as Allen Lazard and Sammy Watkins are questionable, while Romeo Doubs and Randall Cobb are out. That’s not to mention the “up in the air” status of offensive linemen David Bakhtiari and Elgton Jenkins, who have both had trouble staying in the lineup this year. This is music to Micah Parson’s ears, as he already has eight sacks in 2022.
Cowboys head coach Mike McCarthy should have his team ready for his “revenge game” this Sunday, as he’s 12-3-1 against the spread in his career coming out of a bye.
