Week 11 NFL Parlay Picks: Buffalo Bucks and Browns Bounce Back

We're more than halfway through the 17-game season, and at this point, wins and seeding become even more pivotal. Looking at Week 11 as a whole, there are a lot of evenly-matched contests - seven games have spreads of less than a field goal, which could really set apart the "good" teams from the "great."

Here's a look at my favorite spreads and total bets I'll be targeting for Week 11’s NFL parlay picks.

Week 11 NFL parlay picks

• Texans at Titans Under 45 (-110) + Bills -7 (-110) = +264
• Browns -11.5 + 49ers at Jaguars 1H alt-total 24.5 = +227

Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

Parlay Pick 1

PARLAY: Houston Texans at Tennessee Titans Under 45 (-110) + Buffalo Bills -7 (-110) = +264

Houston Texans at Tennessee Titans Under 45 (-110)

The Houston Texans have lost eight straight contests and, at 1-8 sport, the worst record in the conference. The Tennessee Titans, on the other hand, are tied for the best record in the NFL at 8-2 and have won six straight. 

This game has every single making of a potential let-down spot: the Titans are coming off one of their lowest scoring contests, putting up 23 points in their most recent outing and only accumulating 194 total yards of offense in Week 9. Their offense has been considerably different since losing Derrick Henry, and that's affected not only a lack of rushing production, but Ryan Tannehill's efficiency down the field. I don't think the Texans can keep this one close for very long, but with Tennessee ranked third in the NFL in average time of possession at 32:08, look for them to control the clock.

Buffalo Bills -7 (-110)

The Buffalo Bills host the Indianapolis Colts in a matchup that, on paper, seems lopsided. The Bills boast the league's best defense — they rank second in the league in opponent rushing yards per game at home, surrendering only 67.3, and have given up 100 rushing yards in only two games this year. The game plan for the Colts is going to let Carson Wentz air it out. This is another favorable matchup for the Bills, surrendering a league-low 161 passing yards per game at home.

The Bills should win this one comfortably, the question just becomes by how much. I'm happy to take the spread as long as it's within a touchdown.

Parlay Pick 2

PARLAY: Cleveland Browns -11.5 + San Francisco 49ers at Jacksonville Jaguars 1st Half Alternate Total 24.5 = +227

Cleveland Browns -11.5 (-110)

The Detroit Lions were able to tie versus the Pittsburgh Steelers last week, although they let the game slip away late. Sunday, they travel to Cleveland to take on a hungry Browns team with Baker Mayfield banged up but expected to play, fresh off a 45-7 blowout loss against the Patriots last week.

The Lions rank 31st in the league in first-half points allowed per game, surrendering 15.1. This is a great spot for a Cleveland team looking to put points up in a hurry and hopefully, with Nick Chubb back, they can wear down the Lions by pounding the rock against the 25th-ranked run defense.

San Francisco 49ers at Jacksonville Jaguars 1st Half Alternate Total 24.5 (-140)

he San Francisco 49ers travel to Jacksonville on a short week, fresh off a big blowout win versus the Rams on Monday night. They controlled the game from start to finish and held L.A. to only 10 points. Despite their 2-7 record, the Jaguars have been showing signs of improvement and have been kept in contests late, mostly due to good defensive play. Although they have been vulnerable in the secondary, their run defense has been solid.

While this game could get out of hand late, I think the Jaguars could keep things close early on. Although the juice is a little heavier on this line, take the extra few points as security.

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