Thanksgiving is a pile of leftovers in the fridge, which means we’re hitting the home stretch of the NFL schedule.
With the calendar flipping to December in NFL Week 13, the pressure is mounting. Not just on teams pushing for the postseason but also on NFL bettors. Beating the bookie gets harder every week, but as long as you’re getting the best of the number to back up your wagers, you’ve got a fighting chance.
We help you do just that, highlighting the best NFL Week 13 spreads and totals to bet right now and which one you may want to wait for adjustments to bet later.
Week 13 bet now, bet later picks
- New York Jets at Minnesota Vikings (-3): Bet Now
- Jacksonville Jaguars (+1) at Detroit Lions: Bet Later
- Kansas City Chiefs at Cincinnati Bengals (Over 51.5): Bet Now
- Denver Broncos at Baltimore Ravens (Under 38.5): Bet Later
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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New York Jets at Minnesota Vikings (-3): Bet Now
OK, the Jets can beat a Justin Fields-less Bears team with backup Mike White making magic against one of the worst defenses in the world. Let’s see what happens when New York plays a top-tier opponent in Week 13.
The Vikings shook off a nasty Week 11 loss with a sound showing on Thanksgiving, putting up 33 points on the best defense in football with a win over New England. It’s a pretty good measuring stick as the Jets have played — and lost to — the Patriots twice in the past month.
Minnesota’s attack will test a New York stop unit ranked out No. 6 in EPA allowed per play, which is why this spread is so short to begin with. The Vikings hit the board at -3 and the price on the field goal spread is shooting up, with a potential move to -3.5 coming.
If you’ve got a fear of flying when it comes to the Jets, grab Minnesota -3 at home while you can.
Jacksonville Jaguars (+1) at Detroit Lions: Bet Later
This spread opened as low as pick’em on Sunday night and instantly adjusted to Lions -1 with action backing the home side. This spread has run as high as Detroit -2 on Sunday evening and could go even higher considering how much the public adores Dan Campbell and this loveable bunch of Lions.
Detroit has drawn a ton of gameday action the past three weeks (and many weeks this season), including being the most popular pick on Thursday’s Thanksgiving slate. That’s seen late line moves toward the Lions. If you’re looking at Jacksonville in Week 13, you’ll want to wait this one out.
The Jaguars are coming off a thrilling victory over Baltimore at home in Week 12 — potentially setting up a letdown spot versus the Lions — but this club has looked more competitive from a betting standpoint with a 2-0-1 ATS mark the last three outings. An injury to RB Travis Etienne is also helping this movement but he told the media he was OK and that he’d “be straight by next weekend."
I don’t think we’ll see Jaguars +3, but +2.5 isn’t too far-fetched considering Detroit has a mini-bye and plenty of love from early and, more than likely, late money this Sunday. Don’t jump on Jacksonville just yet.
Kansas City Chiefs at Cincinnati Bengals (Over 51.5): Bet Now
The last time we saw the Chiefs and Bengals mix it up, the total closed at 54.5 points in the AFC Championship Game. This time around, Cincy is the host and the number opened at 51.5 points.
This is not the same Bengals defense from last year’s playoff run and while the Chiefs may have just held the Rams to 10 points, that was more a product of a depleted L.A. offense than anything KC did on defense. Kansas City still sits 19th in EPA allowed per play.
The Chiefs and Bengals rank No. 1 and No. 4 respectively in EPA per play as well as EPA per dropback. Joe Burrow will more than likely have top receiver Ja’Marr Chase back in action for Sunday’s showdown and could also have RB Joe Mixon back from a concussion. Kansas City could return WR Kadarius Toney, but as Patrick Mahomes has proven, he can put up points with just about anyone on the field.
If we look at some of the other tall totals for Week 13, we see Jacksonville-Detroit at 51.5 points and L.A. Chargers-Las Vegas at 50.5. Kansas City and Cincinnati is a much more high-powered matchup than those contests.
The media hype and updates on Cincy’s skill players will push this total upwards all week, so grab the Over 51.5 now if you’re planning on points.
Denver Broncos at Baltimore Ravens (Under 38.5): Bet Later
When it comes to very low totals, the betting action generally goes Over. That’s what we’ve seen with this short number between the Broncos and Ravens in Week 13. The total hit the board 38.5 and some spots are as high as 40 points in the hours after opening.
I can see the argument, considering Baltimore broke down for 28 points to the Jaguars on Sunday and the Broncos are aiming to have their top two receivers back. But with an offense this bad and a QB this lost, does it matter?
Russell Wilson & Co. posted only 10 points in the loss at Carolina and now have to wake their asses up for another 1 p.m. ET road start in Baltimore on Sunday. Wilson’s locker-room love is on par with jock itch and the Ravens still rank out No. 8 in EPA allowed per play since Week 7.
As for Baltimore’s attack, it’s been spotty in recent weeks and faces a Denver defense still shouldering the load for the faltering franchise. The Broncos are No. 4 in EPA allowed and have given up 23 points or less in all but one of their 11 games this season.
If you wonder about the Under between the Broncos and Ravens, put a pin in it — wait for those Denver WRs to start practicing — and then come back when the total gets a little taller.
