If your Thanksgiving dinner table is anything like mine, you can’t sleep on the good stuff. If you want a coveted turkey leg or some of your aunt’s famous mac-and-cheese, you had better get to scooping. It’s not going to be around long.
The same logic applies to NFL odds. Any tasty line value is getting snapped up in the opening hours of action.
Much like dining on Turkey Day, you need to have a strategy when betting NFL Week 13 — especially with three games on Thursday and a standalone Friday contest giving the schedule a unique holiday twist.
I single out the best NFL picks to “bet now” and the spreads and totals you may want to let simmer to see if there’s value to “bet later”.
Week 13 bet now, bet later picks
- Dolphins at Packers (-3): Bet Now
- Texans (-6) at Jaguars: Bet Later
- Rams at Saints (Over 46.5): Bet Now
- Buccaneers at Panthers (Under 46.5): Bet Later
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
Miami Dolphins at Green Bay Packers (-3): Bet Now
The Green Bay Packers host the Miami Dolphins in the late game on Thanksgiving Thursday, with books opening the Cheeseheads as field-goal favorites. The vig on -3 is starting to climb with some sportsbooks already dealing the half-point hook at -3.5.
Helping anchor this spread to the key number of three is a short week and an injury to Green Bay wideout Romeo Doubs (concussion). However, if you like the Packers at home on the holiday, I'd suggest getting the -3 now.
Due to the scheduling, this is the 8:20 p.m. ET kickoff on Thanksgiving, and with cold bursts from the north blasting the upper Midwest, game-time temperatures are forecasted to feel like 12 degrees with wind gusts above 20 mph.
The warm-weather Dolphins, notably quarterback Tua Tagovailoa, haven’t played well in cold temperatures in recent seasons. Miami may bring momentum into Week 13, but how much are wins over the Rams, Raiders, and Patriots worth in this situational spot?
Best odds to bet Packers -3 right now
Houston Texans (-6) at Jacksonville Jaguars: Bet Later
The Week 13 status of Jacksonville Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence (shoulder) is already influencing this spread, with the line ranging from Houston Texans -5 to -6 across the market on Monday morning.
Jacksonville was on the bye in Week 12, and the team is aiming for Lawrence to return this Sunday, which is why we see some shops below the key number of six and the total slowly ticking upward.
Should Lawrence get the OK, we’ll see a market move down and perhaps get Houston shorter later in the week. Truth be told, the point value of Lawrence to the spread against backup Mac Jones may not be as much as many perceive, considering Lawrence currently ranks in the bottom third of passers in the NFL.
As for the Texans, you can see why this current spread is below -6 at most books. They aren’t sitting well with the betting public, winning just once in the last four games, including Sunday’s upset loss to Tennessee.
This is a big get-right game for Houston, which has dominated its AFC South rival in recent years. The Texans are 11-2 SU and 8-5 ATS in head-to-head matchups with Jacksonville since 2018.
Los Angeles Rams at New Orleans Saints (Over 46.5): Bet Now
Remember that brief period in early November when we thought the Los Angeles Rams could be a Cinderella in the NFC?
Whelp, three weeks of shit defense cooled that hot take, with L.A. giving up the eighth-worst points per play in that span and sitting 28th in opponent success rate per snap since Week 10.
Los Angeles rolls into the Big Easy in Week 13 with the New Orleans Saints producing some weird results since the season opener. New Orleans looks like an offensive powerhouse one week and then can’t move the chains the next.
The Saints are coming off a bye in Week 12 after stringing together back-to-back victories, most recently a 35-point, 473-yard eruption against Cleveland. And while the Browns only countered with 14 points, they did amass 443 yards against NOLA’s defense.
New Orleans is 31st in yards allowed per play and faces a Rams attack that is moving the ball — No. 5 in success rate per play since Week 10 — but just not finishing in the red zone (45% TD rate last three games). There are plenty of points being left on the table.
This total sits just below the key Over/Under number of 47 but with two bad defenses and offense operating on the fast indoor turf of the Superdome, I want to bet the Over 46.5 now.
Best odds to bet Rams-Saints Over 46.5 right now
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Carolina Panthers (Under 46.5): Bet Later
If you look at the Week 12 advanced stats, you may be shocked to find these NFC South teams ranking Top 5 in EPA per play (Bucs No. 2 and Panthers No. 4).
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Carolina Panthers combined for 57 points in their respective showings this Sunday, which has this Week 13 total sitting just shy of the key number of 47 points. For Carolina, that O/U is on the high side compared to past closing totals.
We’ve seen the Panthers draw numbers of 46.5 against Cincinnati and 51 points against Washington — two of the most explosive attacks in the NFL. Adding up the injuries, Tampa Bay is no longer on the same offensive level as those opponents, even with Mike Evans back in action.
The Buccaneers hung 30 points on a broken Giants team in Week 12 but do face an improved Carolina defense in Week 13. The Panthers have been much better against the pass — due to getting healthier on that side of the ball — but still stink against the run.
We’ve already seen some sharper books hang this total at 47 points, so it’s worth waiting to see if the market consensus climbs before coming back on the Under later in the week.
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