NFL Player Prop Bets for Week 13: Giant Mistakes Out of Glennon

The NFL season is past the midway point and with it comes a ton of opportunistic prop markets. We’re looking into every market to uncover some of the week’s best side, team, player, and derivative prop bets. We do the heavy lifting so you don’t have to!

Week 13 is here and we’re looking at a pair of running backs who have the keys to the offense, a tight end taking over No. 1 duties, and fading a backup quarterback.

We bring you our favorite free prop picks and predictions for Week 13.

Latest NFL prop picks

• Williams anytime TD (+140)
• Gibson Over 70.5 rushing yards (-115)
• Glennon Over 0.5 interceptions (-190)
• Moreau Over 34.5 receiving yards (-105)

Check out full analysis of picks below, or click here to view the full betting card.

NFL prop picks for Saturday

Javonte’s backfield

Rookie running back Javonte Williams will likely have the backfield to himself Sunday versus the Chiefs’ poor run defense, as Melvin Gordon is doubtful. Williams has been one of the better per-touch running backs this season but has been 1B to Gordon’s 1A. With a full dose of touches, Williams and this improving Denver offense could do some damage against the Chiefs, who rank 31st in defensive rush success rate.

Williams’ rushing total has started to climb across the board, where it is as high as 75.5 yards. That’s a little on the high side for us, especially with the Broncos coming in as 9.5-point underdogs. A number that does give us some expected value is in his touchdown prop. At bet365, a Williams anytime TD is at +140, which is considerably off from the rest of the market, as it ranges from -115 to +115 elsewhere. 

Williams is averaging 4.9 yards per carry this season, which is a Top 10 mark amongst running backs, and his usage in the passing game should keep him heavily involved even if the Chiefs get up early. Denver is coming off an impressive rushing game versus a similarly bad rush defense in the Chargers. The Broncos rushed for 147 yards and scored in all three of their red zone trips, which included a rushing TD from Williams, against Los Angeles.

This is a great price for an explosive back who could be featured in a huge divisional game.

PICK: Javonte Williams anytime TD (+140 at bet365)

Solo Antonio

With J.D. McKissic out this week versus the Raiders, Antonio Gibson could receive a major snap share. Gibson usually sees around 60 percent of the snaps in a neutral game script, but that number could hit 80 percent with some untrusted RBs on the depth chart.

First off, this game is a near pick‘em, which is a good thing for keeping Gibson involved on the ground. Secondly, Las Vegas sits 19th in defensive success rate against the run and is just two weeks removed from giving up 130 rushing yards to Joe Mixon. Lastly, Gibson has been killing it of late, even with McKissic in the lineup, as the Football Team’s No. 1 RB has totaled 270 rushing yards over the last three games, and that includes Top-10 rush defenses in Carolina and Tampa Bay. He’s topped 90 yards rushing in back-to-back games.

Washington is riding a three-game win streak and the game plan has been Gibson-heavy. We know he won’t be getting any fewer touches and it wouldn’t surprise us if he saw another 30 touches in Week 13 after a 36-touch Week 12.

Las Vegas is one of 11 teams that allows over 100 rushing yards to opposing RBs on the year and its 4.4 ypc allowed ranks 20th in the league.

Gibson’s rushing total has hit as high as 71.5 yards after opening at 67.5 yards but this is still a number we can stomach. His Over 96.5 total yards is also an option here.

PICK: Antonio Gibson Over 70.5 rushing yards (-115 at bet365)

Loose Glennon

The hits just keep on coming for the Giants, as Mike Glennon will be under center as Daniel Jones deals with what may be a serious neck strain. Glennon is a downgrade for an offense that is already in the dumps. He saw some reps under center in Week 5 versus the Cowboys and went 16 for 25 for 196 yards, a TD and two interceptions.

Glennon will be without Sterling Shepard and Kadarius Toney and faces a Miami defense that is allowing just 207 yards passing over its last three games and has 11(!) turnovers over its last four games. With a ground game that hasn’t done anything since the return of Saquon Barkley, Glennon could be put into an uncomfortable position and have to pass versus a defense that is playing with a ton of confidence right now. 

Glennon’s two picks versus the Cowboys came in the second half of a game New York was trailing. He’ll be without Toney, who was his most-targeted receiver that game, and will be passing against a defense that has a pick in three of its last four games. At -200, it might seem like a steep price, but Zach Wilson’s INT total is sitting at 1.5.

We aren’t getting crazy here and risking just one unit to win half a unit. If you’re looking for some better odds, look at special teams or defensive TD scored at +220. Miami has two non-offensive TDs over its last three games and Glennon has six fumbles over his last 214 passing attempts, to go along with seven interceptions. 

PICK: Mike Glennon Over 0.5 interceptions (-190 at WilliamHill)

Foster the people

With Darren Waller out for the Raiders, tight end Foster Moreau will step into the No. 1 role and immediately become an important piece of this offense versus a Washington defense that ranks 25th in success rate against the pass. 

In his one start this season without Waller, Moreau caught six balls for 60 yards and a score with an 18 percent target share. He also played 100 percent of offensive snaps in that game, so we can expect him to be on the field all game versus the Football Team. He drew five targets last week after Waller went down and although he didn’t fill the box score with that attention, with 10 days of practice and first-team reps, Moreau will be as prepared as ever.

There hasn’t been a ton of excitement in Moreau’s non-TD markets, as his receiving yard total has stayed still after opening at 34.5 yards. Washington’s 266 passing yards allowed per game is the third-most in football and it’s giving up 60 yards to opposing TEs this season. This is a great number for a clear-cut No. 1 tight end.

PICK: Foster Moreau Over 34.5 receiving yards (-105 at bet365)

NFL prop picks for Friday

A pair of former Rams

It didn’t take long for former Rams teammates Jared Goff and Josh Reynolds to get on the same page, as the wide receiver finished the Thanksgiving game with three grabs for 70 yards and a score on a team-high five targets. He is averaging 89 percent of the snaps since joining the Lions and has 28 percent of the team’s air yards over the last two weeks, despite posting zero catches in Week 12.

Reynolds and the passing game should see plenty of work as 7.5-point home underdogs Sunday versus the Vikings. Also in Reynolds’ favor is that running back D’Andre Swift has been ruled out, which leaves the Lions’ offense in need of playmakers.

The Vikings allow the most fantasy points to opposing WRs and concede 13/190/1.3 averages per game. Detroit has one of the worst receiving corps and likely won’t put up these numbers, but if Reynolds is the No. 1 option in the passing game and Detroit finds itself playing from behind, Reynolds could easily eclipse his receiving total of 37.5 yards. 

PICK: Josh Reynolds Over 37.5 yards (-115 at bet365)

System QB

If it ain’t broke don’t fix it, and that’s the approach we’re taking with San Francisco QB Jimmy Garoppolo this week. We’ve been riding his Under passing attempts for three weeks now and our wallet has been thankful for the commitment. 

If you’re new here, Garoppolo isn’t asked to pass a lot. Kyle Shanahan’s offense is rushing the ball, on average, 41 times per game over the last three contests. That’s the highest rate in the league. Conversely, the 49ers are passing the ball at the lowest rate in football over that time, at 22 passes attempts per game. In his last seven starts, the Niners' QB has attempted 29 or more passes just once and with Elijah Mitchell rolling again, we’re betting against the QB hitting 29 or more passes.

The 49ers come into Week 13 as 4.5-point road favorites versus a Seattle team that has struggled to move the ball since Russell Wilson has come back. The only time Garoppolo has passed more than 29 times was when the 49ers were down by 14 points after the first quarter. With the state of Seattle's offense, we see that as a low probability. 

The 49ers are too infatuated with running the ball and have won three straight games doing so. Shanahan will stick with what's working and that means not putting the game into Garoppolo's hands. Just hand the ball off, Jim.

PICK: Jimmy Garoppolo Under 29.5 passing attempts (-110 at bet365)

“E” is for Elijah

While we have you here, we’re going to stack a running back play with our Garoppolo pass attempts Under. Elijah Mitchell is averaging 86 yards on the ground this season but his numbers of late have likely flown under the radar with the weeks that Joe Mixon, Jonathan Taylor, and Leonard Fournette have had of late.

Since Week 7, Mitchell has dominated this San Francisco backfield, averaging 5.14 yards per carry and getting at least 18 carries in four of those five games. Just over the last two weeks alone, he has totaled 54 carries after back-to-back 27-carry efforts. This 49ers team is running the ball more than any other team in football right now and they aren’t afraid to give the majority of those touches to Mitchell. The RB was coming off a Week 11 injury last week and finished with 32 total touches and 168 total yards and a score. His health issues seem to be over with.

Kyle Shanahan won’t deviate from a game plan that has rewarded his team with three straight victories. This likely means another heavy dose of Mitchell. Only the Jets allow more fantasy points to opposing RBs and no team allows more passing yards to RBs. JaMycal Hasty could return but he’ll likely dig into Mitchell’s role in the passing game and not on the ground.

PICK: Elijah Mitchell Over 86.5 rushing yards (-115 at DraftKings)

Big Johnson

Diontae Johnson was the most-targeted receiver in Week 13 with a total of 17 balls thrown his way, which he turned into 9/95/0. He's had at least seven catches in three straight, seen double-digit targets in eight of his 10 games, and sits sixth in receptions in the NFL.

Pittsburgh's defense seems to be falling apart a little more each week and could be playing from behind Sunday versus the Ravens, who enter as 4.5-point road favorites in the divisional match. Johnson has become Ben Roethlisberger’s security receiver and his average target depth of 9.8 means he is always in Roethlisberger's reach.

Johnson’s reception total is the highest number on the board at 6.5, but it's nothing new to the Steelers receiver who has closed with a reception total of 6.5 for five straight games. He's is 4-2 O/U in those games.

Johnson’s floor is four to five catches and if Baltimore turns the Steelers into a one-dimensional team Sunday, Johnson will be the biggest benefactor. We don’t love taking massive totals, but Johnson has become the most-targeted receiver of late and we’re happy to throw down in a game we feel Baltimore rolls.

PICK: Diontae Johnson Over 6.5 receptions (-110 at DraftKings)

Season to date: 84-82, -0.45 units (Risking to win 1 unit per play)

NFL Week 13 prop betting card

• Javonte Williams anytime TD (+140 at bet365)
• Antonio Gibson Over 70.5 rushing yards (-115 at bet365)
• Mike Glennon Over 0.5 interceptions (-190 at WilliamHill)
• Foster Moreau Over 34.5 receiving yards (-105 at bet365)

• Josh Reynolds Over 37.5 yards (-115 at bet365)
• Jimmy Garoppolo Under 29.5 passing attempts (-110 at bet365)
• Elijah Mitchell Over 86.5 rushing yards (-115 at DraftKings)
• Diontae Johnson Over 6.5 receptions (-110 at DraftKings)

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